The voter speaks...and how !

Elections sometimes resemble a kaleidoscope. Every twist gives you a different pattern from the same elements.
The recent state assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur seem to have broken that mould.
The voter has given the party of his or her choice a definitive mandate.
Whether it is the record-breaking return of the Akali party-led coalition in Punjab, or the Samajwadi Party's stunning victory in UP, the massive win for the BJP in Goa, or the Congress in Manipur, you are left in no doubt as to what the voter wanted.
The Congress party had the anti-incumbency factor at its command to win in Punjab and Uttarakhand, and do much better in UP, but that it did not, is a result of the anti-corruption sentiment that has gripped the land, ever since the Commonwealth Games and 2G scams tsunami hit. 



Akhilesh Yadav

The Congress party had the anti-incumbency factor at its command to win in Punjab and Uttarakhand, and do much better in UP, but that it did not, is a result of the anti-corruption sentiment that has gripped the land, ever since the Commonwealth Games and 2G scams tsunami hit. 

The anti-corruption mood, too, explains the extent of Mayawati's defeat. The high voter turnouts and the decisive nature of the verdicts make it clear, however, that the outcome is not a negative vote against the loser, but a positive mandate for the winner.
The massive surge in support for the SP, which won across all the regions of the state - owes a great deal to the support of the Muslim community. In every election since the post Babri Masjid riots, the community has voted tactically - to keep the BJP out of the seat.
However, this time it would appear that the Muslims have voted overwhelmingly for the SP, but for a different reason.
Security was not a consideration since the BJP had little chance of forming the government. The decision seems based on an assessment as to the party that would credibly have a chance of forming the next government, and offering the community the best possible developmental deal.
These are considerations that have influenced other communities, too. A great deal of credit must go to the party scion Akhilesh Yadav who has sought to give the party a modern face.
People seem to have ignored the role of the party in bringing goonda raj (hooligan rule) the last time around in 2003. Clearly, the politics of expectations have trumped those of fears. What does all this bode for national politics? At one level, the performance of the 'national' parties has been poor.
If the Congress has failed to perform in all the states, except Manipur, the BJP performance has been little better, notwithstanding its good showing in Goa.
It is riding on the back of its regional ally in Punjab, and in UP its performance has been nothing to write home about. In Uttarakhand, only Maj General Khanduri's sacrifice has enabled it to salvage what was once a clearly lost cause.
It would be premature to write off the national parties at this stage. In great measure the Congress is paying for its own acts with regard to corruption. Its handling of the corruption scandals of 2010 and 2011 has been scandalous.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is an honest man, but most people believe that he has led one of the most corrupt governments in the history of the nation.
A combination of these factors may have influenced the outcome in Punjab, where the voters overlooked the corruption charges against the Badals to hand them a massive victory.
Their attitude seems to be that the Akalis were a more credible option when it comes to their own future and the development of the state, rather than the factious Congress party of the state.
The self-inflicted weaknesses of the mainstream parties may be creating space for the consolidation of the regional formations.
Thus the second victory in a row, the first time this has happened in more than 40 years, for the Akali Dal will help it to cement itself in the state's politics. We may also be witnessing something akin to this in UP where the polity may become bipolar- involving the SP and the BSP- excluding the mainstream parties like the Congress and the BJP.
The Punjabi identity has never been in doubt. But a UP wallah is neither here nor there. This election may begin to provide some answer to that in giving shape to the identity-the state where the SP and BSP flourish. It will not quite have the ideological flavour of our Dravidian parties-the DMK and AIADMK-but it would be fairly definite and it is a beginning. 

At the helm: Sukhbir Singh Badal

And what of the individual? In many ways this was an election that heralded generational change. Young Sukhbir Badal already has his hands on the helm in Punjab.
In UP, Mayawati is relatively young, but she was confronted by young Rahul Gandhi, and the even younger Akhilesh Yadav. The clear winner of the three is Akhilesh who many people believe has been instrumental in steering the party away from its goonda raj days, though only time will tell whether or not this is true.
As for Rahul, despite his heroic efforts, he failed to galvanise the voters, even against the relatively easy target of Mayawati. Perhaps he was bested by the more credible presence of the SP in the state, or maybe his high-voltage campaign was pitched wrongly.
But it is back to the drawing board for him and he knows this. There are some things you can say when an election result comes out. But there are others you can only learn in the fullness of time and fitness of things. Among these will be the implications of the election outcome on the UPA II government at the Centre.
And then there are the forthcoming Rajya Sabha polls, the Presidential election, and the final culmination- the next general elections currently scheduled for 2014. 
Mail Today March 6, 2012

Uttar Pradesh is on the cusp of change

My atomic theory is seriously outdated, but from what I remember, one electron and one proton gave you hydrogen, two and two add up to helium, three and three lithium and so on. In other words, a quantitative increase in protons and electrons leads to a qualitatively different element. The same, of course, happens in the case of molecules where a simple combination of carbon and hydrogen gives you butter, but another, more complex will yield dalda.
How does this connect to politics? Simply, the quantitative changes that have taken place in the country in the past decade are on the verge of taking on a qualitative shape. The signature development of this period has been economic growth— notwithstanding, or indeed in spite of turbulence in the global economy. This has led to a transformation in the way our countrymen think and act. The positive development has been the individualisation of identities which were, till now, forged in the fires of caste.

Expectations
This differentiation has been evident in cities, where the baleful forces of caste identity, or, in all fairness, its security blanket, have frayed. Given the economics of living in the big city, it is each man and family for itself, and may the devil take the hindmost. The pull of the extended family will still be there, but not so much of the caste. In any case, making ends meet is tough enough, and maintaining kinship ties an expensive proposition.
In the countryside it has unleashed the revolution of rising expectations that has swept and maintained Nitish Kumar in power in Bihar. Now it is threatening to upend the existing power balance in Uttar Pradesh. The one state, paradoxically, where nothing seems to be happening is Punjab whose politics seems to be stuck in a groove, much to the detriment of a state which deserves better.
In UP, a congruence of disparate events are creating the opportunity for a tectonic change. First, Mayawati’s rule may have solidified her Dalit base, but it has frayed the electoral alliance between the Bahujan Samaj Party and the upper castes in the state that led to an unprecedented majority for the party in the 2007 state assembly elections. Second, the rapacity of the rule has alienated the influential middle classes who live in the ever growing tier II and tier III towns of the state. Just one manifestation of this has been the NRHM scam where an astounding Rs 3,000 crore may have been embezzled over the course of ten years or so. The people do not resent the monuments made by Mayawati, but they most certainly are fed up of the extent of money the political and bureaucratic class is skimming off into its pockets.
Second, the crisis in the Congress-party led United Progressive Alliance government in New Delhi probably forced Rahul Gandhi to shift gears and put down his own stakes in the ongoing state assembly elections. This act has led to an injection of resources and effort by the party to revive its moribund unit in the state. The going is uphill, but the effort is bound to yield positive results in the future.

Elements
Third, Mulayam Singh began feeling the effects of age in the past couple of years. People who know him and interact with him know that Netaji is no longer the man he was. Instead, we have his son, educated abroad, married outside the close-knit community, and fluent in English, a language that his father abhorred. Fortunately, young Akhilesh is not alienated enough to be apolitical. When it comes to politics he is very much Netaji’s son and that, and the energy and perspective he has brought into the Samajwadi Party politics in recent times will pay the party back in spades when the results are announced.
Fourth, the early focus on the Muslim vote in the contest has led to a revival of the fortunes of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Initially, the BJP appeared deadbeat, and the entire attention was focused on Rahul Gandhi’s activities and the Samajwadi surge. Narendra Modi’s refusal to campaign only underscored the perennial leadership problem of the party. However, the constant refrain over the importance of the Muslim vote has led to a polarisation of votes in favour of the BJP and the party is likely to do better than expected.

Paradigm
Just what will be the new plate tectonics of UP is somewhat difficult to assess. In the multi-phased elections there have been ups and downs within the matrix we have outlined above. In any case, in a multi-cornered contest, it is not easy to predict the way the seats will be gained or lost. And don’t forget that 163 out of the 403 seats are new constituencies since they have come up as a consequence of the delimitation process.
There is another factor we should consider. Just as at the national level, elections to the state assembly often end up shifting the paradigm. This was manifest in 2007 when Mayawati and the BSP won with a clear majority, for the first time since 1991. Does it mean that the voter is likely to give the winner a clear mandate, rather than the fractured ones that were a feature of the state before the 2007 poll? Even though sometimes it appears that the more things change the more they stay the same, the truth is in history there is no going back.
But, there is always the worry. Remember the lesson from the chemistry of making hooch from denatured spirit: Ethyl alcohol distils over at 78.3 degrees centigrade, and methyl alcohol at 64.7 degrees. A little error leads to the poisonous methyl alcohol contaminating the distillate, causing tragedy. Unanticipated shifts could always transform UP’s seemingly upbeat scenario into a political disaster.
Mail Today February 29, 2012