Shadow of 1984: Delhi riots show what can happen when there is political interference with police

Though not part of his job description, NSA Ajit Doval pitched in and was able to provide the leadership to restore some calm in areas of Delhi shaken by communal violence that has killed some 42 people so far. As an old police hand, he must have had much to say to the Delhi Police (DP) that had merely stood by as parts of the capital saw arson and mayhem. 

But all he said publicly was there was need to correct the impression of “their capabilities and intentions” in the minds of the people. A high court judge was more blunt when on Wednesday he made DP officers watch four videos of BJP leaders making provocative hate speeches. The net result, however, was that the judge was transferred out and the new bench gave the police a month to act on the issue. It is actions like these that promote the sense of impunity with which the DP has been acting, in the face of blatant criminal actions and violations of the law.

It’s been nearly two months since masked people armed with sticks, rods and acid attacked students in the Jawaharlal Nehru University campus. Almost everyone knows who the attackers are, as does the DP, but so far not a single person has been arrested. And then there is the Jamia Millia Islamia attack where students, some in a library, were set upon and assaulted by the police – an act, like many others, captured in stark videos. It’s not just about politics. Earlier this month, the police stood by when a mob entered Gargi College and sexually harassed and assaulted the women students. In another incident Jamia women complained that they were kicked in their private parts by police personnel.

But the rot in the Delhi Police is not new. In 1984 this writer saw its “qualities” first-hand. Sikhs had been massacred in the city without the police lifting a finger. Near a police station in Trilokpuri an army captain pointed to a police inspector standing by sheepishly and said, “This man had himself locked inside the police station so that we could not find anyone to guide us in this congested area.” The police abdicated its duties in 1984, they did the same in 2020. DP is not unique in its ways. Across the country police forces have a horrible reputation. DP’s cousins in Uttar Pradesh would give them a run for their money when it comes to both impunity and brutality. The way they handled the recent anti-CAA agitation is testimony to this. The police behave the way they do because they serve the cynical purposes of governing politicians, whether it is in harassing the opposition, or being lenient with their own supporters. They sometimes execute people without a trial, or entangle people in civil or criminal cases without compunction.

Political interference is the first and most important part of the problem. The second are the terms and conditions of service, though here, the DP is relatively better off than their counterparts in other states. The third problem is that the Indian police force is simply too small to deal with the challenges they confront. 25% of the DP is involved in VIP duties. Not surprisingly, they are grossly over-worked and underpaid. The fourth is training. Their idea of crowd control is either do nothing, or simply bash up every one in sight. On occasion, when protesters throw stones, throw them back at them. Urban areas are riot prone and require a specially trained and equipped force to deal with them. But all these will be to no avail if the police lack the fifth and most important ingredient – a moral compass. All of us need one, but surely for those who are said to be guardians of the law it should be mandatory.

Times of India February 29, 2020

NSA Doval Taking Stock of Delhi Shows Govt’s Panic, Shah’s Failure

Just what is the National Security Adviser Ajit Doval doing reprising his role as a police officer? Ajit Doval toured the riot-hit areas of Delhi on Tuesday night, 25 February, and Wednesday afternoon, 26 February, met police officers and provided them guidance in dealing with the situation, interacted with the local residents and provided them the reassurance that there will be no recurrence of what they had undergone in the past few days.

In the remarks reported by the media after his Tuesday night visit, Doval said that there were enough forces on the ground and there was no need to fear the situation. He acknowledged that the “capabilities and intentions” of the Delhi Police are being doubted by people and that this was an issue that needed to be addressed.

On Wednesday evening he was back in the localities offering words of reassurance to the shaken local communities, and staking his personal credibility on the continuance of peace.

This time, though, he made it a point to say that the home minister had made all the arrangements and the police were doing their job. Despite instances of the Delhi Police looking on as the mobs went on a rampage, the police have yet again been assigned to take charge by a man who had been a policeman a long time ago.

Bringing In Doval Shows Government’s Panic

Doval had begun his career as a police officer in the Kerala cadre, but soon opted to join the Intelligence Bureau where he spent most of his career and where he had a formidable record as an operations officer.

As NSA, Doval has a huge set of responsibilities ranging from advising the PM on National Security, to chairing the Executive Council of the Nuclear Command Authority, the Special Policy Group of the NSC, chairing the Defence Policy Group, as well as supervising the external intelligence agencies and being in-charge of relations with China as the PM’s Special Representative.

Having him check the policing arrangements of a some segments of riot-hit Delhi is clearly an add-on triggered by the government’s panic at the developments. This is also a mark of the lack of trust of the legal chain of command that spectacularly failed to do its job – the police commissioner, the lieutenant governor who is the nominal head of the administration, and the Union home minister who is in-charge of the police.

On Tuesday, as soon as he returned from Ahmedabad, Union Home Minister Amit Shah presided over several meetings to deal with the issue of the violence that had hit the capital city. But by evening, Doval had taken charge.

It’s one thing to be made responsible, and quite another to rush to the frontlines.  Generals do not usually go to the battle front. Even though he had escort, he was after all going to a place where bullets had been flying the other day, wading into conversing with locals in situations where it is not easy to protect someone. But Doval, ever the operations man has not hesitated in front of danger as has been evident through his career.

But the question still needs to be asked of the government which had to rely on him for events which its own foolish policies have created.

Also Read : ‘If Media is Quiet About Attacks, Terrorism Will End’: NSA Doval 

When it Comes to Security, There’s No Detail Doval Won’t Track

Recall that Doval also had to pitch in on Kashmir. How much of a role Doval had in the government’s decision to take away Jammu & Kashmir’s statehood and derogate Article 370 is not clear. In any case the state’s status was not in his charter of duties. Yet, following the decision, he spent 11 days in the state to ensure that things went smoothly. In the process, he talked to locals, addressed J&K Police personnel and separately the CRPF and the army to keep up their morale.

Doval has  been an unorthodox NSA, not hesitating to tread on toes and filling a vacuum when confronted with a situation. When it comes to security there is no detail that he will not track. Some years ago, there was a spectacular bank robbery in Gohana, Haryana, when robbers dug a 84-foot tunnel to break into the locker vault of a bank. According to a source, one of the queries seeking details of the modus operandi of the robbers came from Doval’s office.

Likewise, when in October 2014, a bomb blast took place in Burdwan, Doval personally landed up in Kolkata to discuss the matter with Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and visit the site of the blasts for an inspection. He was clearly worried about the threat of the Jamiat-ul-Mujaihdeen Bangladesh (JMB) to West Bengal, which fortunately, did not materialise.

One may wonder that with his plate more than full, how Doval gets the time to do the fire-fighting for the government as well. The answer probably lies in his staff work.

Unlike previous NSAs who had one or two, Doval has as many as four principal aides looking at issues relating to intelligence, foreign affairs, crime-terrorism nexus and military affairs. There are also a slew of other advisers assisting him.

In addition, he has expanded the National Security Council apparatus to occupy the entire Sardar Patel Bhavan building where it used to earlier have about two or five floors worth of space. Further, the budget of the NSCS has also gone up sharply.

What Has India Gained From US President Trump’s India Visit?

When you meet your friend after, say, four months, how many times do you hug him ? Once or twice may be par for the course. But six times ? Well that was the hug count for the Modi-Trump love-fest on day one of the US President’s visit to India.

Of course, in many ways, everything was over-the-top—the crowds lining the streets to the jam-packed Motera Stadium, the walkabout in the Taj Mahal, and effusive remarks Modi and Trump threw at each other.

We know, of course, that Trump has taken great pleasure in the adulation of what he thought were millions of people and the visit to the Taj Mahal. But he also got important brownie points with the Gujarati-American electorate in some key states back home.

Positive Messaging and Trade Boost on Trump’s Second Day in India

Day Two was more sober and business-like, but the positive messaging remained. New Delhi can be happy that Trump behaved impeccably, did not embarrass the government on account of the CAA or the Delhi riots at his solo press conference on Tuesday evening. But India could not have been entirely comfortable with the Kashmir mediation issue coming up and Trump’s comment that “There are two sides to every story” in the context of both Kashmir and terrorism.

In the remarks just after the official-level talks on Tuesday afternoon, Trump spoke of the working together with India for a “free and balanced Indo-Pacific region” and a “comprehensive trade deal.” He referred to the US$3 billion arms deal and noted the tremendous progress made by the two countries on working out a comprehensive trade agreement, noting that US exports to India have gone up 60 per cent since he took office three years ago. He also noted a 500 per cent rise in American energy exports to India. According to Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla, India expects to source $ 9 billion on this account in 2020.

US Knows What It Wants, Does India Know It Too?

This is clearly an area targeted for growth, but note that this has been built on a forced embargo on Iran, the closest source of hydrocarbons for India.

Trump is clearly elated by the US business prospects in India, as well as the investments Indian corporates are making in the US.

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“India is a tremendous market and they really like us,” he exulted at his press conference on Tuesday evening.

But at the end of the day, this was a visit to India by the President of the most powerful and richest country in the world. So the bottom line question would be: We know Prime Minister Modi has basked in the reflected glory of the President of the US, but what did India, the country, gain from it ?

We, of course, needed the arms we purchased and they are undoubtedly of great quality, but they were purchased from the US, not given free. Further, as always, they come with end-user conditions. The US is offering us a range of other systems, but there is a line they do not cross and for that reason India needs to keep its powder dry and maintain good ties with Russia or Israel.

Benefits of Being on the US’s Right Side

One big outcome of the visit was in boosting India’s prestige. Given Trump’s erratic ways and troubled relations with old American friends and allies, his flawless performance in India stands out. It will most certainly up India and Modi’s standing around the world. Considering that the two were not in talking terms before Modi’s re-election, their fifth meeting since is certainly a remarkable development.

The benefits of being in good standing with the US can often be intangible. For one thing, it certainly influences governments in countries like Japan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Germany, UK as well as the US dominated financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank.

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As for the trade deal what does seem clear is that the US is not willing to give any quarter on this account to a country the vast majority of whose people are dirt poor. This hardly seems to be the behaviour of a “natural ally” or strategic partner. It is one thing to offer Blue Dot schemes in the Indo-Pacific and another to deny the GSP to one of the poorest countries in the region.

Also Read : Namaste Trump: Trade Deal or Not, Trump’s India Trip is ‘Perfect’

Does India Have the Ability to Capitalise on US Goodwill?

But India remains in a strategic sweet spot with the US. Washington realises that in terms of size, location and economic potential, India is the only country in Asia that can offer heft to its anti-Beijing coalition. That India has a disputed border with China and chafes at Beijing’s friendship with Pakistan makes the choice of India a logical one. The US now seeks to make India as the “premier defence partner”, essentially promoting the use of US equipment at every level of the Indian military making India a key cog in the larger US defence system.

What New Delhi wants, however, is not clear. It probably wants a partnership of equals.

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But in the real world where there is a huge asymmetry of resources and capabilities of the two countries this is not on the table. The result is that India lacks any kind of a clear roadmap to exploit the attention that is being paid to it by the world’s premier power. In similar circumstances Pakistan and China would have taken the US to the cleaners, as, indeed they have done in the past.

That India and the US do not have identical geopolitical interests is evident from the issue of India’s ties with Pakistan, Iran and Russia. Trump, to his credit, was forthright in saying in Ahmedabad that “our relations with Pakistan is a very good one.” And that he expected the progress here to yield “greater stability and the future of harmony for all the nations of South Asia.” He repeated the point in New Delhi when he said that India and the US were determined to protect their citizens against “radical Islamic terrorism” even while noting that “the US is also working productively with Pakistan to confront terrorists who operate on its soil.”

Trump Gives Modi the Benefit of Doubt on Delhi Riots

The riots that broke out in Delhi while Trump was in Agra is a warning bell. The government may claim that this was a conspiracy, but the reality is that its own policy of hostility and exclusion set the stage for the conflagration. Trump has clearly been briefed on it and the CAA. But he chose to give Modi the benefit of doubt. But it clearly goes against his own description of India as a country of “astounding progress, a miracle of democracy, [and] extraordinary diversity.” He emphasised this by twice referring to the Muslims and other communities contributing to the vibrancy of Indian culture.

Trump has articulated his vision of India which contrasts with the ways of some countries (read China) “that seeks to claim power through coercion, intimidation, aggression.” He is seeing this through the lens of a businessman seeking stable and profitable markets in the coming decades. But should India succumb to authoritarianism, religious strife, civil unrest and anarchy, Trump is unlikely to be as effusive.

Quint February 25, 2020

दुनिया को दिशा देने वाली दोस्ती

जबसे पूर्व प्रधानमंत्री अटल बिहारी वाजपेयी ने घोषणा की कि भारत और अमेरिका 'स्वाभाविक सहयोगी' हैं, तब से दोनों देश धीरे-धीरे और व्यवस्थित ढंग से अपने संबंधों को आगे बढ़ा रहे हैं। यही बात प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी ने सोमवार को अहमदाबाद में दोहराई, जब उन्होंने कहा कि भारत और अमेरिका न केवल 'स्वाभाविक सहयोगी' हैं, बल्कि उनका सहयोग और संबंध 21वीं सदी में दुनिया की दिशा तय करेगा। मंगलवार को दोनों देशों ने घोषणा की कि उनका संबंध समग्र वैश्विक सामरिक भागीदारी के स्तर तक बढ़ाया जाएगा।
मंगलवार को नई दिल्ली में आधिकारिक स्तर की वार्ता के बाद अपनी टिप्पणी में राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप ने 'स्वतंत्र और संतुलित हिंद-प्रशांत क्षेत्र' और 'व्यापक व्यापार सौदे' के लिए भारत के साथ मिलकर काम करने की बात कही। यह देखते हुए कि तीन साल पहले उनके सत्ता संभालने के बाद से भारत को अमेरिकी निर्यात 60 फीसदी तक बढ़ गया है, उन्होंने व्यापक व्यापार समझौते पर दोनों देशों द्वारा की गई जबर्दस्त प्रगति को रेखांकित किया।सोमवार को अहमदाबाद स्थित मोटेरा स्टेडियम में अपने संबोधन में ट्रंप ने भारत की विविधता और बहुसंस्कृतिवाद की प्रशंसा की, लेकिन जबर्दस्ती, धमकी और आक्रामकता के जरिये दबाव बनाने की कोशिश नहीं की। वह चाहते हैं कि भारत अमेरिका का प्रमुख रक्षा साझेदार बने। उन्होंने कहा कि 'एक साथ मिलकर हम अपनी संप्रभुता और सुरक्षा की रक्षा करेंगे तथा स्वतंत्र व मुक्त हिंद-प्रशांत क्षेत्र की रक्षा करेंगे।' मंगलवार को दोनों देशों ने तीन अरब डॉलर के रक्षा सौदे पर हस्ताक्षर किए। सोमवार को राष्ट्रपति ट्रंप ने घोषणा की कि 'अमेरिका इस दुनिया के सबसे अच्छे और सबसे अधिक घातक सैन्य उपकरणों में कुछ भारत को देने के लिए तत्पर है।'

यह मानना गलत होगा कि भारत ने ट्रंप की यात्रा का दिखावा करने के लिए समझौते पर हस्ताक्षर किए हैं। 24 एमएच-60आर बहुउपयोगी हेलिकॉप्टर (2.12 अरब डॉलर) और छह अपाचे हेलिकॉप्टर (7.96 करोड़ डॉलर) की खरीदारी हमारी नौसेना और वायुसेना के लिए बेहद जरूरी है। इस समय भारतीय युद्धपोत इन हेलिकॉप्टरों द्वारा प्रदान की जाने वाली पनडुब्बी रोधी क्षमता के अभाव में पनडुब्बी खतरे से खुद को प्रभावी ढंग से बचाने में असमर्थ है। भारत और अमेरिकी रक्षा संबंध अचानक तेजी से विकसित नहीं हुआ है, जिसने अमेरिका को 1954 में पाकिस्तान को अपने खेमे में लेते या 1972 में चीन-अमेरिका के बीच सौहार्द विकसित होते देखा है। राष्ट्रपति क्लिंटन की यात्रा से लेकर डोनाल्ड ट्रंप की यात्रा तक दो दशक बीत चुके हैं। धीमी प्रक्रिया इस तथ्य से भी स्पष्ट है कि भारत ने 2002 में जनरल सिक्योरिटी ऑफ मिलिट्री इन्फोर्मेशन एग्रीमेंट (जीएसओएमआईए) पर हस्ताक्षर किए और चार में से तीसरे बुनियादी समझौते कम्युनिकेशंस ऐंड इन्फोर्मेशन सिक्योरिटी मेमोरेंडम ऑफ एग्रीमेंट (सीओएमसीएएसए) पर हस्ताक्षर 2018 में हुए।

बीच में दोनों देशों ने 2005 के भारत-अमेरिकी परमाणु समझौते के माध्यम से रणनीतिक संबंधों की दिशा में एक निर्णायक बदलाव किया, जिसके जरिये अमेरिका उन पाबंदियों को हटाने में सक्षम था, जो भारत के साथ उसे सामरिक समझौते करने से रोकते थे। यह ट्रंप प्रशासन ही था, जिसके कार्यकाल में और चाहे कुछ भी हो, इसमें तेजी आई है। उन्हीं के कार्यकाल में सीओएमसीएएसए पर हस्ताक्षर किए गए, भारत को एक प्रमुख रक्षा भागीदार के रूप में नामित किया गया, और रणनीतिक व्यापार प्राधिकरण-1(एसटीए-1) का ओहदा प्रदान किया गया, जो उच्च तकनीकी व्यापार के लिए मार्ग प्रशस्त करता है। हाल ही में दोनों देशों ने औद्योगिक सुरक्षा अनुबंध पर हस्ताक्षर किए, जो अमेरिकी और भारतीय कंपनियों के बीच सहयोग को बढ़ावा देगा। अमेरिका जानता है कि वह भारत से क्या चाहता है-चीन के खिलाफ एक प्रतिरोधी शक्ति। आकार, अवस्थिति और आर्थिक क्षमता के लिहाज से भारत एशिया का एकमात्र ऐसा देश है, जो बीजिंग विरोधी गठबंधन को नेतृत्व दे सकता है। तथ्य यह है कि भारत का चीन के साथ सीमा विवाद है और बीजिंग की पाकिस्तान के साथ दोस्ती को खत्म करना भारत के लिए तािर्कक है। लेकिन नई दिल्ली वास्तव में क्या चाहती है, यह स्पष्ट नहीं है। भारत के पास किसी तरह के स्पष्ट रोडमैप का अभाव है, ताकि वह दुनिया के प्रमुख शक्तिशाली देश अमेरिका द्वारा उसे दी जा रही तवज्जो का लाभ उठा सके।

हमें यह भी समझने की आवश्यकता है कि भारत और अमेरिका के भू-राजनीतिक हित समान नहीं है, जो पाकिस्तान, ईरान और रूस के साथ भारत के संबंधों से स्पष्ट है। अपनी साख के लिए ट्रंप ने अहमदाबाद में सोमवार को काफी हद तक ठीक ही कहा कि पाकिस्तान के साथ उनके संबंध बहुत अच्छे हैं। और वह उम्मीद करते थे कि भारत के साथ अमेरिका के संबंधों में प्रगति दक्षिण एशिया के सभी देशों के बीच भविष्य में सद्भाव और व्यापक स्थिरता पैदा करेगी। संयुक्त प्रेस कांफ्रेंस की अपनी टिप्पणी में अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप ने 'कट्टरपंथी इस्लामिक आतंकवाद' से अपने नागरिकों को बचाने के लिए दोनों देशों की प्रतिबद्धता को दोहराया। हालांकि उन्होंने यह भी कहा कि 'अमेरिका पाकिस्तान के साथ सकारात्मक तरीके से काम कर रहा है, ताकि पाकिस्तान की धरती से सक्रिय आतंकवादियों का मुकाबला किया जा सके।'

प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी के दृष्टिकोण से देखें, तो अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप की इस यात्रा का सबसे बड़ा परिणाम उनकी खुद की और भारत की प्रतिष्ठा बढ़ाना था। इसमें कोई संदेह नहीं है कि ट्रंप की यात्रा का कार्यकाल और मोदी के प्रति उनकी स्पष्ट पसंदगी तीसरे देशों से निपटने में भारत की सहायता करेगी। मेजबान होने के नाते इस बड़े कार्यक्रम में प्रधामंत्री मोदी की केंद्रीयता को लेकर कभी कोई संदेह नहीं था। यहां तक कि उत्तर प्रदेश के मुख्यमंत्री योगी आदित्यनाथ, जिन्होंने आगरा में अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप का स्वागत किया, तुरंत ही कैमरामैन के लेंस से गायब हो गए। जहां तक विपक्षी नेताओं की बात है, वे इस पूरे परिदृश्य से अनुपस्थित रहे, कुछ अपनी इच्छा से और कुछ मजबूरीवश।

लेकिन राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप की यात्रा के दौरान दिल्ली में जो दंगे भड़के, उस पर जरूर गौर किया जाएगा। सरकार अगर यह सोचेगी कि यह किसी साजिश का परिणाम था, तो वह खुद को नासमझ ही बनाएगी। सरकार की अपनी विभाजनकारी और बहिष्करण की नीतियों ने इस आग को भड़काया है और आप यह निश्चित रूप से मान सकते हैं कि अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप को इसके बारे में जानकारी दी गई होगी। यह 'आश्चर्यजनक प्रगति, लोकतंत्र का चमत्कार और असाधारण विविधता' वाले देश के रूप में भारत के प्रति उनकी अपनी टिप्पणी के खिलाफ जाता है। उन्होंने भारतीय संस्कृति की जीवंतता में योगदान देने वाले मुस्लिमों और अन्य समुदायों का दो बार जिक्र करके इस पर जोर दिया था।
Amar Ujala February 25, 2020

How virus outbreak has hit world economy

OVER 70,000 confirmed cases of the Covid-19 virus and more than 1,700 deaths have been reported so far. China remains the principal location of the outbreak and the cruise ship Diamond Princess has become the second largest centre of infection with over 450 confirmed cases, followed by Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan and Thailand. There are a significant number of cases in South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia Germany, Vietnam, Australia, US, France and Macao.

The economic impact of the virus is also now becoming clearer. Quarantine measures to check the virus have severely affected economic activity. Travel curbs all over the country have disrupted logistic networks and wreaked havoc on industries ranging from oil refining to tourism, hospitality services, civil aviation and manufacturing.

The Covid-19 outbreak has pushed down oil prices to their lowest level because of the disruption of travel and economic activity in the world’s largest oil and gas importer. According to one report, Chinese energy giant CNOOC has said it will have to suspend honouring some import contracts. Caixin has reported that weak demand has led to a rapid growth of inventory in refineries and such build-ups are also afflicting other heavy industries like steel and copper smelting.

The International Energy Agency has also lowered the 2020 demand growth by 365,000 barrels per day. This has a lot to do with the Covid-19 outbreak since China accounted for over 75 per cent of the global demand growth.

The outbreak has already hammered the weak auto industry where sales had been falling for the past two years due to the loss of incentives for electric cars and the slowing economy. In fact, says Yicai Global, as of mid-February, four-fifths of Chinas car dealers are still shut due to the epidemic.

Currently, many of the car manufacturing plants are also shut. Wuhan, the great Chinese industrial city, is one of the major centres of Chinese automobile production, with Nissan, GM, Renault, Honda and Peugeot having facilities there. But the most exposed automaker is Volkswagen which has some 24 plants accounting for 40 per cent of its production in China. Toyota which makes 15 per cent in China is also worried.

Besides, there are several auto component makers like Bosch, which has dozens of plants in China, including two in Wuhan. China is also the global hub for making electric motors, transmissions and other components of electric cars and it is not surprising that among those affected is Tesla which had begun delivering its Model-3 vehicles from its plant in Shanghai.

The greatest fear of the Chinese government is that the Covid-19 outbreak could lead to mass unemployment. For this reason, the central, provincial and local governments are emphasising measures to maintain stable employment through various aid measures, including tax cuts, loan repayment deferrals and the use of unused unemployment insurance funds. But the problem for local officials is that the twin tasks of containing the spread of the virus and keeping their economies up and running is proving to be too much.

If the crisis is not checked and factories, shops and restaurants unable to do business, it could add some RMB 5.6 trillion in new bad debt for lenders, effectively, trebling non-performing loans. For many small businesses, the Covid-19 outbreak is an existential threat. Caixin, a Chinese economic newspaper, cites a survey of 995 small and midsize companied conducted by Tsinghua University and Peking University after the outbreak and found that only 18 per cent or so could last three months with their current savings, and one-third could last one month and another third two.

Wang Tao, head of Asia economics and chief China economist at UBS, estimates that China’s GDP could plunge 1.5 per cent in the first quarter, assuming all companies are able to resume operations by the beginning of April with their current savings.

All this has had a ripple effect in curtailing Chinese tourists going abroad, disrupting China-centric supply chains and constraining economic demand in China. Among the countries most affected are Vietnam, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and South Korea.

Among those affected is the auto industry, Hyundai was forced to suspend production at its plants in South Korea because the Covid-19 disrupted its supply of parts. Korea gets nearly 30 per cent of its car parts from China. Fiat Chrysler said it had suspended production at a factory in Serbia because of shortages of parts made in China. Meanwhile, the giant Mobile World Congress which was to be held in Barcelona has been cancelled because of Covid-19 concerns.

Opinion is still divided as to the overall impact of the Covid-19 on China's economy and on that of the world. There are many who argue that this will be a short-term thing and will not have a significant impact on either. S&P Global, for example, says that the crisis will stabilise by April and there will be no new transmissions by May.

However, all that depends on the disease being brought under control. As of now, there is no indication that that is happening. Even now, there are no firm assessments as to when the disease will peak, which will be when the daily number of cases begins to decline consistently.

Even now, according to Chen Yixin, the deputy head of the ‘central guiding group’ in Wuhan, the government has not been able to get an accurate count of the number of people infected. The situation remains grim, a large number of health workers themselves have been infected and other parts of the province, and, indeed, China, are going into a quarantine lockdown.

Tribune February 18, 2020

Trump in India: Inside Story on What’s ‘Cooking’ on Both Sides

Donald Trump is visiting India on February 24-25, just after the efforts to impeach him were rejected in the US Senate. The President comes in an election year, but since he is not likely to face any challenge from his own party that is not a problem. Neither, at present, does it appear that the Democratic challenge look significant.

Trump sees the visit as a return favour for his “friend” Modi.

The  ‘Howdy Modi’ event in Houston that drew 50,000 Indian Americans may have been aimed at the electorate back home, but it also provided the US President with not just applause, but some political dividends in terms of votes and campaign contributions from the Indian American community. New Delhi was keen to invite Trump as the Chief Guest at the Republic Day parade in January, but the President declined because of what the White House said were “scheduling constraints.”

Trump’s over-the-top taste for tamasha fits well with that of his host Narendra Modi who is readying a mega show called ‘Kem Chho Trump’ in Ahmedabad, a glitzier and bigger version of the ‘Howdy Modi’ event in which Trump participated.

After a period in 2017- 2018 when the two did not meet because personal ties between Modi and Trump cooled, they have stepped up their engagement, meeting 4 times in 2019, including in the ‘Howdy Modi’ meet.

Deepening of India-US Ties

In the last four years, the relations between the two countries, especially in the area of defence has taken many leaps. In 2016, India finally signed Logistics Exchange agreement (LEMOA), that committed the two sides to support each other’s naval vessels and personnel with logistics, spares and fuel.

Two years later, they signed the Communications  security agreement (COMCASA). In  turn, the US designated India as a Major Defence Partner in 2016 and conferred the Strategic Trade Authorisation-1 (STA-1) status on India to streamlines exports of sensitive goods from the US in 2018.

In December 2019, the two sides signed an Industrial Security Annex to deepen industry collaboration between the two sides and enable greater sharing of advanced technology.

This was, in short, to facilitate India becoming a significant part of the US-led supply chain in the defence sector.

Institutional ties have also grown with frequent high-level visits including the annual “2+2” dialogue of the two countries’ defence and foreign ministers.

However, Not All is Hunky Dory Between Trump and India

But this past has not been glitch free. We had the US coercing India to give up oil purchases from Iran, and threatening to impose sanctions under their CAATSA legislation to block India’s defence acquisitions from Russia. Trump’s repeated offers to mediate in Kashmir have been unsettling for New Delhi, especially when the US Congress is paying an uncomfortable amount of attention to the lockdown of the state and the imprisonment of its mainstream political leaders.

On 12 February, a bipartisan group of US Senators—including Trump confidante Lindsey Graham—wrote to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressing concern over the continuing internet curbs in Kashmir—the longest shutdown by a democracy—disrupting access to medical care, business and education for 7 million Kashmiri people. The letter also refers to the Citizenship Amendment Act and the National Register of Citizens and says that Modi’s policies “threaten the rights of certain religious minorities and the secular character of the state.”

Also Read : ‘Will Strengthen Partnership’: Trump to Visit India on 24-25 Feb

Tricky Trade Deal: Will It Happen?

Actually, the bottom line is that when Trump talks and thinks of India, his most common refrain is trade. Not surprisingly, from the American point of view, the greatest amount of effort in preparation of his visit has been expended on a trade agreement. Multiple rounds of talks had taken place in recent weeks between the Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer over the telephone.

FIle image of Union Minister Piyush Goyal.

(Photo Courtesy: @PiyushGoyal)

Given the wide gulf in the positions of the two sides, most observers were expecting a limited trade deal during the visit, but the report that the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer was cancelling his visit to India has led to consternation in New Delhi.

As a result, the government has hurriedly let it be known that India is offering to partially open up its poultry and dairy market to sweeten the deal.

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President Trump himself is playing it cool as saying “if we can make the right deal, we’ll do it.”

In 2017, India’s trade surplus with the US stood at $30 billion. This has now gone down to $ 16 billion. Bilateral trade has now exceeded $140 billion. All such surpluses are a red rag for Trump who has variously blasted India as a “Tariff king” and  cancelled India’s General Scheme of Preferences (GSP) privileges.

What India Wants from President Trump

Recently the USTR office classified India as a developed country ineligible for the GSP. So, India is making a special effort to soothe the US. But many problem areas remain such as the recent Indian cess on medical devices, or data localization rules.

India is seeking a reinstatement of the benefits under the GSP scheme, as well as exemption from the high duties the US imposed on certain steel and aluminum products, greater market access for its agriculture and manufacturing sector, including autos and auto components.

The one area through which New Delhi hopes to win over Trump is defence purchases from the US. Here, they kill three birds with one stone. On one hand, India will make urgent acquisitions needed for its defence modernization, and on the other, they can tote  up the trade as part of the effort to reduce the trade deficit as well as show their strategic proximity to the US.

Defence and Strategic Deals to Bring India and US Closer

India has sealed two mega deals with the US together worth $ 3.5 billion (Rs 25 crore) These include 6 Apache attack helicopters for the Army ($930 million) and the $ 2.6 billion deal for the 24 MH-60R multi mission helicopters for the Navy.  The total Indian deals with the US since 2007 will now reach over $ 20 billion. The IAF had earlier acquired 22 Apache helicopters as well.

India is also looking at more deals—for six more P-8I long range maritime patrol aircraft ($ 1.8 billion), the Integrated Air Defence Weapons System for to shield Delhi against short-range missiles ($1.86 billion), 30 Sea Guardian armed drones ($2.5 billion plus) and 13 MK-45 naval gun systems ($1.02 billion) but it currently lacks the capacity to fund them.

The US is also pushing India to buy US fighters for its huge 114- aircraft deal for fighters. It is offering the upgraded FA-18, F-15s  and  F-16s for the Air Force.

India’s defence budget stands at $47.34 billion (minus defence pensions) and of this some $16.2 billion is the capital outlay to buy costly new weapons systems and equipment. However, 90 per cent of this is already committed to paying off past purchases.

Beyond the trade tensions and ‘Kem Chho’ extravaganza, there is a strategic context to the visit. The US views India as the only viable counterweight to China in terms of its size, economy and location. This is despite New Delhi’s reluctance to get into a situation where it has to directly confront China.

For its part, as it falls further behind China economically and militarily, India needs the US to balance Chinese power. The US is not unaware of this, but they have few choices and are happy even if the relationship grows at a slower pace than what they desire.

Quint February 24, 2020