The Bluestar story is too complex for yes and no answers

Last week there was a furore over the revelation of a letter indicating that the British Special Air Services (SAS) may have been involved in the operation to evict Sikh militants from the Golden Temple in 1984.
Speaking in the House of Commons, British Prime Minister David Cameron was compelled to deny charges of SAS involvement in Operation Bluestar. He told two MPs, who have a large minority of Sikhs in their constituencies, that he wanted to know the truth as well and had ordered an inquiry by the Cabinet Secretary to ascertain the facts.

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Past mistakes: Intelligence on militants in the Golden Temple was inadequate

Facts

In India, Major General K.S. Brar, who had commanded the forces involved in Operation Bluestar, also denied the allegation emerging from two documents of February 1984, declassified and released this month, suggesting that India had asked, and UK had agreed to provide, advice from the SAS.
The truth is somewhat more complex. Both Cameron and Brar are right in saying that the SAS was not involved in Operation Bluestar in any way. Actually, according to sources, they were involved in another operation which was planned before Bluestar, and which was cancelled.
This operation was planned using the commandos of the Special Frontier Force (SFF), who are army personnel, seconded to the Research & Analysis Wing.
Based in Sarsawa, near Saharanpur, this force originally comprised Tibetans and was raised for use in Tibet against the Chinese. Subsequently, this has evolved into a super-special forces unit which carries out unspecified intelligence-related duties.
According to the story I heard back in the late 1980s, the SFF was ordered to develop a plan for taking out Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale from the Golden Temple in late 1983. The force came up with a plan where its personnel would disguise themselves as Sikhs, penetrate Bhindranwale's durbar at the Guru Nanak Niwas in the Golden Temple complex and whisk him away.
At the last stage, the commander of the force was summoned by Mrs. Gandhi and asked to brief her on the plan. Her main question was: What are the chances that people will be killed in the operation? The commander said that there was no guarantee that there would be no casualties and as many as a dozen or more people could be killed. At that Mrs Gandhi balked.
However, things only went from bad to worse. So in May 1984, Mrs Gandhi was compelled to revisit the issue. By that time the militants within the Golden Temple had fortified themselves and become even more powerful.
Under the command of ex-Major General Shahbeg Singh, they had systematically developed defences against any Army attempt to seize the Golden Temple. This involved siting kill-zones, establishing strong-points, and accumulating weapons and ammunition in significant quantities.
Further, Bhindranwale had taken shelter in the Akal Takht and stopped his durbars.

Tragedy

The story of Operation Bluestar is too well known to be recounted here. The tragedy is that Mrs. Gandhi, who had flinched at a dozen or so casualties, eventually ordered an operation that led to the deaths of hundreds - military personnel, Sikh militants, as well as innocent pilgrims who were caught in the crossfire.
The SFF was involved in Bluestar, but in a smaller role as part of the initial assault along with the 10 guards and 1 para commandos. This assault failed because the well-sited guns of Shahbeg Singh mowed down the commandos.
With the benefit of hindsight we can say that the state of intelligence about the preparations made by the militants in the Golden Temple was woefully inadequate. Not only did events push the country to the terrible dénouement of Bluestar, but the fact that in those days, the Golden Temple was hemmed in by the city and there was little or no chance of conducting a prolonged siege.
After Bluestar, the government took the precaution of clearing some of the houses around the Temple and building a circular road.

R&AW

The Research & Analysis Wing played a significant role in the struggle against Sikh militancy, especially since a great deal of support for the militants came from the Sikh diaspora settled in countries like the UK, Canada, Germany and the US. In addition, Pakistan's ISI provided, and indeed continues to provide, Sikh militants shelter in Pakistan.
The militants managed to smuggle a considerable arsenal that they had obtained in Pakistan into the Golden Temple, which included light and medium machine guns, rocket launchers and rocket-propelled grenades.
At the time of Bluestar, Girish (Gary) Saxena headed the R&AW. But the legendary Rameshwar Nath Kao was the security adviser to Mrs Gandhi and was closely associated with the handling of the Punjab issue.
Even though India was supposed to be close to the Soviet Union, the R&AW headed by Kao was firmly aligned with the western camp. It had, in any case, been set up through the recommendations of British advisers in the 1960s, and had liaised with the US in matters related to China, such as the infamous Nanda Devi caper.
US personnel were involved in training the Special Services Bureau, now the border guarding force for the Nepal border. At that time, the SSB was seen as a "stay behind" force to conduct a guerrilla war against putative Chinese occupiers. India also had links with the Israeli intelligence.
Following Indira Gandhi's assassination in October 1984, Kao sought the assistance of Israeli specialists to design the new prime minister's security detail, which included guarding the person and residence of the PM, and securing his cavalcade.
In the tense aftermath of Bluestar and the Sikh massacres, the SFF was called upon to provide the security, a job it had never earlier trained for. Today, the NSG claims to be "Black Cats", but the actual "Black Cats" were the SFF commandos with their black dungarees and maroon berets, who provided the security for the PM and several of the top ministers threatened by the Sikh militants.
They went back to their shadowy existence in 1985 after the NSG was established. 

Mail Today January 21, 2014

Re-kindle Indo-Iran ties

On Monday, the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 nations — the U.S., Britain, Germany, France, Russia and China — kicked into the first phase of its implementation. The deal, which has the potential of changing the geopolitics of the South-west Asian region, if not the world, is as of now a series of steps through which Iran will begin the process of stopping and rolling back its nuclear programme, in exchange for the western countries easing sanctions that have crippled its economy. The whole process will be confirmed through a final agreement which will be negotiated over the next six months by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

 

Mutually beneficial: India needs Iran for its energy needs as well as access to Afghanistan via Chah Bahar port. 

Given the history of the long and tortuous negotiations between Iran and the western countries over its nuclear programme in the past decade, fingers are crossed in respect to the final agreement. Some hardliners in Iran have actually hailed the deal, but there are many naysayers in the US, especially in its powerful Congress who are skeptical.

Israel and Saudi Arabia are unhappy for their own reasons. The White House, for its part, is also playing it cautious and its statement noted “With respect to the comprehensive solution, nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed to.”

Put simply by the end of the six month period, Iran’s uranium stockpile would have been diluted to an enrichment cap of 5 per cent, though it will continue to hold the stockpile it has and have the capacity to enrich uranium to the 5 per cent level. It will have stopped work in the Arak reactor and desisted from building reprocessing facilities which could enable it to also obtain plutonium to make nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons require a core of plutonium, or uranium enriched to above 90 per cent. 5 per cent is what is sufficient for reactors that generate power.

The P5+1 and EU will commit themselves to temporarily shelve the sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and material imported for use in its motor industry, suspend efforts to block Iranian crude purchases around the world, allow trade in bullion and return $4.2 billion seized from Iran in tranches over the next six months.

Iran has had nuclear ambitions ever since it was ruled by the Shah of Iran. But following the revolution of 1979 that brought its current Mullah-led regime into power, Iran had formally abjured from chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. In any case, Iran was a signatory to the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear weapon state.

However, in the 1980s, the Iran-Iraq war probably brought a re-think in Teheran. The country suffered grievously in the war, losing hundreds of thousands dead. Further it could not but have been aware that the Iraqi aggression, including chemical weapons attacks had the passive support of the West.

The mullahs began thinking of getting some nuclear insurance and probably authorised a clandestine programme.

From the mid-1990s, the Iranians asked the Russians to resume work in the Bushehr nuclear plant which had been damaged by Iraqi attacks. But Iran obtained technology from multiple sources, including the notorious A Q Khan network.

In 2002, an Iranian dissident organisation revealed the existence of a uranium enrichment facility at Natanz and a heavy water plant at Arak, subsequently in 2009, Iran itself admitted to building another enrichment plant at Fordow.

Iranian offers for a “Grand Bargain” failed when the Bush Administration refused to accept Iranian bona fides. Later the EU took up negotiations with Teheran. But the negotiations failed and the IAEA, though it said it could not definitively say Iran was making nuclear weapons, formally reported the country to the UN Security Council which has imposed as many as six sets of sanctions on Teheran.

The P5+1 negotiations have been going on since 2009, but recent developments have led to its success. First, the United States directly entered into the negotiations instead of cold shouldering Teheran. Second, the change from the abrasive Mahmoud Ahmadinejad presidency to that of the pragmatist Hasan Rowhani has aided the process. Third, the sanctions have bitten deeper than Teheran thought they would and the Iranian economy has been devastated by them. Because of the sanctions, Iran not only has difficulty in getting customers for its oil, but also finds it difficult to get either technology or finances to develop its considerable oil and natural gas assets. Fourth, not only is the US no longer dependent on Persian Gulf oil, but it has learnt that Sunni extremism is a far greater danger than the essentially conservative Iranian mullah regime. Fifth, in the Obama administration, Iran has an interlocutor which is willing to do business in contrast to the Bush administration.

The developments have vindicated India’s position which is that Iran had the right to enrichment, but not to make nuclear weapons. Further New Delhi resisted efforts to block oil imports from Iran. India needs Iran for its energy needs as well as access to Afghanistan and Central Asia via Chah Bahar port.

India’s decision in 2009 to vote with the US to censure Iran in the IAEA is still resented by Teheran. India and Iran are, in their own way, natural allies, a fact underscored by the increasing anti-Shia nature of Pakistan. We need them more than they need us and so we must begin the process getting Teheran off its great sulk against us.

Mid Day January 21, 2014

The Chinese hypersonic missile vehicle test

The report of a Chinese hypersonic missile vehicle test is yet another signal that the People’s Republic of China intends to contest the hegemony of the United States across the spectrum. However, given the American lead in terms of military power, China’s thrust continues to be towards developing asymmetrical  capabilities generally classed under the acronym A2/AD (anti-access/area denial). In the case of the hypersonic vehicle test, the target seems to be the American anti-ballistic missile programme. In other words, China is ensuring that its nuclear deterrent against the US will not be degraded by any American capabilities in the anti-missile field.

The first report of  the Chinese test of an hypersonic missile vehicle on  January 9  came from the legendary Bill Gertz writing in the Washington Free Bacon newspaper and available on freebacon.com.

 http://freebeacon.com/china-conducts-first-test-of-new-ultra-high-speed-missile-vehicle/

Gertz, for those who may not be familiar with him has deep ties in the Pentagon and he cited US officials as saying that the vehicle appeared designed to deliver warheads through US ballistic missile defences.  Subsequently, on January 15, the Chinese Ministry of Defence confirmed the report noting: ““Our planned scientific research tests conducted in our territory are normal. These tests are not targeted at any country and at any specific goals.”

According to Gertz, citing US officials, the hypersonic craft was designed to be launched on one of China’s intercontinental ballistic missiles, and which then glides and maneuvers at speeds of up to 10 times the speed of sound from near space  to its target.

Vehicles traveling at hypersonic speeds—between 3,800 to 7,500 miles per hour—are the cutting edge technology which can be both powered and unpowered, the former can take off on their own, while the latter can be boosted atop launch vehicles.

The US and Russia have been experimenting with hypersonic vehicles for some time, and now China has joined the list. India has also talked about a follow-on to the Brahmos supersonic missile. But in all likelihood, the key technologies here will be provided by the Russians. In any case they are the world leaders in hypersonic technology with many missiles using ramjet propulsion. The Russians are already in the flight testing stage and the Russians are now involved in next gen technologies using hydrogen-fueled scramjet engines.
 A former commander of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces in Moscow said China’s hypersonic vehicle test was a milestone but that Beijing trails both Russia and the United States in the development of the arms.
“China has hardly surpassed the Americans and the Russians as it has just accomplished its first hypersonic missile test,” former Strategic Rocket Forces commander Col. Gen. Viktor Yesin told Interfax-AVN. Without access to the Chinese test results it is impossible to gauge the success of China’s hypersonic weapons program.
“We should say at the same time that the United States and Russia have conducted a number of hypersonic missile tests but they have not achieved the successful separation of glide hypersonic warheads,” he said.
“The designers have run into numerous problems and most of them have not been resolved so far.” http://freebeacon.com/chinese-defense-ministry-confirms-hypersonic-missile-test/

The key Chinese expert cited in many places in the Chinese media was Chen Hu, whose background and specialisation is not clear. Many of the reports repeated  his interview to the Chinese Central People’s Broadcasting Station. Subsequently, a version of this appeared in  the  Huaxia Jingwei website   http://www.huaxia.com/thjq/jsxw/dl/2014/01/3708693.html (translated excerpts given below)

“What is the core secret of the Hypersonic weapons?

In general, before the ballistic missile re-enters the atmosphere, it can release warheads. It can be both a single-warhead and also a multiple-warhead. Outside the warhead, there is a carrier device that re-enters the atmosphere. In principle, it is a bit like the re-entry of the Shenzhou spacecraft, which requires the material of the outer case to be capable of withstanding harsh environment, so as to protect warheads to complete its flight. A warhead, in general, is a ballistic flight warhead. Speaking from its significance in the past, it used to be a free parabolic type of warheads which took flight according to a fixed trajectory. Now after we have a hypersonic gliding vehicle, once the warhead enters the atmosphere, it completes the flight, following the flight trajectory.

what is the real significance of Hypersonic weapons?

The United States launched an anti-missile system to settle the problem of early warning, and fixed trajectory of the ballistic missile. By a lucky coincidence, it has left room for reaction time, because in the fixed ballistic missile, only if one can accurately measure parameters such as location and speed, only then can one calculate the entire ballistic path. It leaves enough reaction time for interception at the end. Once the gliding vehicle is used, the ballistic trajectory changes immediately on contact with the atmosphere, flying according to controls. Therefore, the greatest significance of the hypersonic weapons is to effectively break through the core technology of end phase interception of anti-missile system.

what FRINGE BENEFITS will the Hypersonic weapons bring in?

　　

Such a gliding-type loader will bring in some fringe benefits: first, the effective range of the missile can be extended. Its flight distance will be much more than the original free fall, which means that the range of missile can be significantly increased. A bomb is still a bomb, rocket is still a rocket. But as long as the warhead is used in a modified way, its range will expand. This is obviously a very big advantage.

　　

Hypersonic weapon provides technical possibilities for hitting an aircraft carrier

Another benefit is that since it will complete flight in flight mode, it will then require accurate positioning, and then must accurately hit that point. These warheads have to have an accurate terminal guidance system. The speed of the warheads of the Intercontinental missile, during the carrier phase, may be above 20 Mach. Therefore, when it re-enters the atmosphere at high speeds, the friction between the warheads and the atmospheric air produces high temperatures and heat, leading to the production of plasma and the blanking of electric circuits. Therefore, it must have a black barrier zone. Once it enters the Black barrier zone, radio communications and video signals are interrupted. The speed of the glider will then drop from 20 mach to 10 mach, avoiding a blackout zone and making precision guiding possible. It will then have the ability to hit moving targets. This is very significant, since it means that it can be effective against targets at sea. It also provides technical possibilities for striking an aircraft carrier.”

Published in ORF website Jan 22, 2014

India Losing Clout in South Asia

Things have been bad enough for India in Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka, and we now face the prospect of our relations with Bangladesh going down the tube in the coming months.
After having a friendly government preside over a stable neighbour in the last five years, we are now confronted with the prospect of violence and anarchy in a country with which we share a 4000-km border.
The cause of this alarming development is not too difficult to find - the continuing and debilitating quarrel between the two Begums of Bangladesh - Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed and her predecessor, Khaleda Zia, the chief of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

Jamaat activists set fire to an Awami League office in Bangladesh on an election day that was marred by violence

Rivalry

The occasion, too, has a sense of déjà vu. With national elections scheduled in January 2014, Begum Khaleda had demanded that they take place under the aegis of a caretaker government, and not the incumbent Awami League dispensation headed by her great rival.
Not surprisingly, Sheikh Hasina refused, just as Khaleda Zia had done in 2006 when she was prime minister. It had taken two years of agitation and strife to gain her commitment to hold the polls under the aegis of a caretaker government and the Awami League alliance had won by a landslide - 263 seats out of 300.
We are now probably headed to the same place with the numbers reversed in favour of the BNP. The international community has uniformly denounced the January 5 elections which saw a voter turnout of about 30 per cent against the 83 per cent who voted in 2008.
As many as 153 out of the 300 seats were won uncontested by the Awami League alliance which secured a three-fourths majority. In the wake of domestic protests and international condemnation, Sheikh Hasina has more or less conceded that she will have to undo the elections.
The question is of timing. The longer the violence and anarchy plays out, the worse it will be for Bangladesh.
A re-election, which will almost certainly see the victory of the BNP, is bad news for India. But New Delhi can only blame itself for its predicament. It did little to show its appreciation for the friendly government in Dhaka - it was neither able to push the Teesta water-sharing accord, nor the border agreement.
Given the binary nature of Bangladeshi politics, it was bad strategy for New Delhi to be seen as Sheikh Hasina's benefactor. This may have been a reality in the past, but in the last five years, at least, New Delhi needed to have moved to a stance that would protect Indian interests, regardless of who headed the government.

People gather in front of a burnt and vandalised house after Bangladesh Jamaat-E-Islami activists attacked a Hindu village in Jessore

Rift

The events in Bangladesh have also brought out an uncharacteristic rift between New Delhi and Washington DC. In the past year, the Americans have been warning against the holding of elections in a climate of violence, while India has made it clear that all its eggs are in Sheikh Hasina's basket.
Had the two countries put forward a united stand on the elections, perhaps things would not have come to this pass. On Monday, the United States issued a statement that categorically called on the Awami League government to fix the situation.
In Washington DC, Marie Harf, the official spokesperson, denounced the violence and said: "We believe Bangladesh still has an opportunity to demonstrate its commitment to democracy by organising free and fair elections that are credible in the eyes of the Bangladeshi people."
The American statement was in sharp contrast to the Indian official spokesperson's comment on the election, which was also delivered on Monday. In his daily briefing, the official spokesman said that the elections in Bangladesh were a "constitutional requirement" and that it was for the people of the country to "decide their own future and choose their representatives in a manner that responds to their aspirations."
Ignoring the issue of the legitimacy of the elections, the spokesperson said that "violence cannot and should not determine the way forward." This was not a blanket endorsement of Sheikh, but it was close enough, given the universal criticism she has otherwise faced.
India's predicament is manifest. Sheikh Hasina is one of the few friends we have in the South Asian region. In 2013, we have had trouble-prone relations with Sri Lanka, Nepal and Maldives; and ties with our adversaries Pakistan and China remain unchanged.
But in the last five years, with Sheikh Hasina as prime minister, relations between India and Bangladesh were warm and friendly. She cracked down on the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) sheltering in Bangladesh, as well as on domestic Islamists who were used by the ISI for anti-Indian activity.
Moreover, stable Bangladesh enjoyed a handsome six per cent rate of growth.

Equations

Sheikh Hasina's added virtue was that she took on the Jamaat-e-Islami and had it on the run. Equally important, the Awami League's control of the government provided New Delhi some comfort with regard to the advancing Chinese influence in the region, even though India was not able to reward her sufficiently.
On the other hand, Khaleda Zia and her BNP are allied to the Jamaat which is virulently anti-Indian. Begum Khaleda's own attitude towards India cannot but be deeply skewed by the perceived closeness between India and Sheikh Hasina.
As far as India is concerned, the issue of Bangladesh cannot be handled by a lame-duck government in New Delhi.
But beyond personalities and politics, there is one basic question we need to ask ourselves: Why even 66 years after independence, is New Delhi's influence in its region shrinking instead of expanding?
Mail Today January 7, 2014

The year of the Lokpal

This could well be the year of the Lokpal. With the Lokpal Bill having passed both houses of Parliament, all that remains is for the president to sign it before it becomes a law.
Of course, the political class can still have some tricks up its sleeve because the Union Home Ministry is the one that will write the rules of the Act and sometimes these are so cunningly crafted that they undermine the intent of the legislation.

Even so, the Lokpal Bill will be a new mechanism to fast-track probes against allegedly corrupt government officials — the prime minister, cabinet ministers, chief ministers, MPs, and the staff of state-funded outfits.
If there was one legislation, which has in recent times, truly come from the people, it is the Lokpal Bill. For decades, the ruling elite has sought to make anti-corruption legislation toothless. But Anna Hazare’s famous fast and the upsurge in favour of the Lokpal Bill compelled the ruling party, as well as the principal Opposition, the BJP, to push the bill.
In that sense, the main thrust of the legislation is to have some means of dealing with the soaring levels of corruption in a country where the existing mechanisms have been ineffective. Complaints registered under the Lokpal will have to be acted on within 60 days and would be prosecuted in special courts.
The arrival of the Lokpal will be an important development in the Indian polity. Of course, the Aam Aadmi Party insists that only the Jan Lokpal Bill will satisfactorily curb corruption. However, critics are right when they say that the Jan Lokpal idea is a bit over the top. We need to ensure that the Lokpal remedy does not become worse that the disease.
In recent years, at various points in time, we have seen how certain constitutional bodies — the Supreme Court and the Comptroller and Auditor General being two examples — have tended to assume powers that actually belong only to the executive. But such was the public mood against the government, that no one gave heed to the serious damage that was done to the constitutional system. Maintaining the constitutional balance is an important part of
our democracy.
There has been a tendency, especially in the Congress party, to believe that legislating a promise is tantamount to actually delivering on it. The reality is otherwise. In its two tenures, the UPA government has passed the Right to Information (2005); Right to Work (2005); Forest Rights Act (2006), Right to Education (2009); Right to Food (2013) and the Prohibition of Manual Scavenging Act (2013). But in all these areas, there is a long way to go in the effective implementation of the acts.
What India needs to understand is that legislation or institutions by themselves do not bring about social change. Countries of Europe or the United States, too, had a history of political corruption. But over the years they have cleaned up their act considerably because of popular sentiment, as well as institutions and laws.
It is not as though corruption does not still occur there. But it is not as all-pervasive as corruption has become in India and the penalty for getting caught is heavy and the guilty are more effectively prosecuted.
Corruption weighs heavily in India. Virtually every major and minor deal, be it for an entrepreneur to set up a steel plant, or a rehri-wallah selling vegetables on the street corner, money must be paid.
Corruption in the area of defence purchases is in a class of its own. This is evident from even the minor deal for the purchase of 12 Augusta Westland helicopters which the government recently terminated. A collateral casualty of the case could well be an army brigadier who offered to fudge the trial records of the competition relating to the acquisition of 197 light utility and surveillance helicopters in exchange for five million euros.
The big areas of corruption are well known — sale and purchase of land and real estate development (Adarsh), in the award of contracts, income tax assessments, mineral allotments (think of the Coal allocation scam), transfers and sale of positions, purchase and sale of medicines (think of the National Rural Health Mission scam) and so on.
Clearly, the first target of the Lokpal system will have to be the police. There is a Latin saying, Quis custodiet insos custodies (Who will guard the guards themselves?) India’s police is rotten to the core and this is evident to every aware citizen. Most people believe that the police are hand-in-glove with the criminals on one hand, and the politicians on the other.
It was through targeting the police in Hong Kong that the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) cut its teeth and enabled the emergence of the modern city which is considered one of the cleanest in the world. But it was not an easy task and the process also revealed the problems that arise when you give so much power to one body.
However, at the end of the day, what matters is the quality of political leadership that is provided to the anti-corruption crusade.
Mid Day January 7 2014

Three years ago, around this time of the year, I wrote a piece in these very columns listing six things that ought to be done in the coming year, but probably would not be.That was the year when the first flush of the United Progressive Alliance's stunning electoral performance of 2009 showed signs of wilting.
The year began with two senior army officers being indicted for the Sukhna land scam, and soon skeletons were tumbling out of the cupboard at an alarming rate.
Focus returned to the shenanigans of army officers, politicians and bureaucrats over the Adarsh housing cooperative building. There was a continuous cacophony accompanying the run-up to the Commonwealth Games, outdone only by the revelations from the Radia tapes, followed later in the year by the CAG report revealing the extent of the 2G scam.

My suggestions for what was doable in the year to follow, 2011, were not particularly utopian and tinged by the corruption scandals that had exploded through the year 2010: The establishment of an autonomous directorate of prosecutions, the abolition of the single-point directive which requiring government sanction to prosecute civil servants, creating the post of a Chief of Defence Staff to modernise and synergise India's higher defence management, deep reform of India's hopeless police system, dropping of a number of known corrupt ministers from the union council of ministers, and reforming agriculture and food logistics to rein in food inflation.

Fixes

Barring the idea of a separate directorate of prosecutions, nothing has really changed since. However, it is that time of the year when hope triumphs over experience and optimism rules. The recent elections suggest that the volcano of expectations that has built up in the country is ready to explode and sweep aside anything that stands in its way.
So here goes with my eight things to fix in the coming year:

• A foreign policy for the country which is anchored on national security. As a country with disputed borders and aggressive adversaries, it matters little if India can get a seat on the high table, but get pushed around in its own backyard like a banana republic. This is not just about military strength, but ways and means to enhance India's shrinking footprint in our neighbourhood and beyond.
• Overhaul our internal and external security system from bottom up. Which means getting down to the thana level policing on one hand, and restructuring higher management of national security on the other. This includes the appointment of a Chief of Defence Staff to synergise India's defence capabilities across the three Services, and unleashing private sector investment and energies to remove the public sector deadwood clogging our defence R&D and industry.
• Communal violence is a virus that has been allowed to persist for too long. It diminishes us as a nation and it is time we got serious about tackling it. Whether we need a legislation to do this, of course, is another matter.
• Reining in food inflation: Pass the Goods & Service Tax, repeal the Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee Acts and check runaway support prices for wheat and rice. The three measures will help bring huge revenues to the government even while driving down food prices.
• Initiate a new energy policy. Most of our power is generated from coal and despite huge reserves we face shortages. Remove Coal India's monopoly, reform the state electricity boards, and come up with a plan to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels. Recall that China, the largest fossil fuel consumer of today has been hard at work to put in place an alternative energy programme since 2001.

Reforms

• Begin right sizing the government. The Fifth Pay Commission had called for a 30 per cent cut in the size of the central government. Our governments are much too big and consume a huge amount of our national resources. Ironically, if large parts of the government are bloated, there are other vital parts, like the Indian Foreign Services, the Intelligence Bureau and the Research & Analysis Wing which do not have adequate manpower.
• To merely say that we need desperately to reform our education system is stating the obvious. But there is need to make a beginning and now before we slip further down in global rankings. Across the country we are spending a great deal of money in universities which provide third rate education to hapless young people who are unaware that this education is unlikely to equip them to be either good citizens or employable young men and women.

Change

• The last two years have seen the passage of significant legislation based on pressure from below-laws on rape, sexual harassment, land acquisition and, yes, the lokpal. What 2014 needs is a beginning of their effective implementation as well as their refinement, considering that some of the laws were passed in a hurry or in moments of emotion and can become a liability just as the nuclear liability law of 2010 has become.

The agenda for change is a large one. This list or any other can be multiplied several times and still come up short. But the compulsions of reform are urgent. With a bulging profile of young people, India is said to be on the cusp of a demographic dividend. But that dividend could well become a nightmare unless we are able to fix our politics, our governance system, economy, national security machinery.
But for all these changes to take place we need one crucial fix-leadership. This is a commodity of which there is an acute shortage, at least at the central level.
There was a time you could get away by leading from behind. But today's wired world and a much more informed citizenry is demanding discerning and decisive leaders who will lead from the front and deliver.

Mail Today December 31, 2013