With urbanisation a new breed of politician is set to dominate Indian governance

Nearly a decade and a half after the 21st century began; the politics of India is catching up with the new century. One of its greatest manifestations is the sense that things are going to change in a big way through Election 2014.
No one is certain as to how just that will happen, but happen it will, seems to be the belief. The easiest way this can happen is by sweeping out the old and bringing in the new.
Both processes are happily coming together through the general election. 

Across India, in the electoral lists and recusals of incumbents, we can see the 20th century is fading. 

It is not just Digvijaya Singh, or Sonia Gandhi making way for their offspring, but the old-guard in the BJP as well.
The election outcome will bring out its own winnowing.
There are some exceptions to the rule – Mulayam Singh, Lalu Prasad, the Badals, Jayalalithaa, Mamata Banerjee and Mayawati to name but a few, but their time is also numbered.
Reinvention
But there are also those who have reinvented themselves as 21st century politicians. Among these are Naveen Patnaik, Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi.
Actually, Modi really got into politics in this century, prior to this he was a fairly obscure figure. The events of 2002 – the massacre of Muslims in Gujarat, following the killing of Hindu pilgrims in Godhra – was his baptism by fire.
But it is what he did thereafter that marks him out as the man for the new century. He is not your typical automaton favoured by the Sangh, but an ambitious and hugely opportunistic man, who has not hesitated to grab the main chance.
In the process he has defined his own political sphere, emphasising good governance and economic growth, which is not quite the same as that favoured by Mohanrao Bhagwat and the RSS.
The Aam Aadmi Party is another manifestation of the new politics in the country. Don't let the political acrobatics of Arvind Kejriwal confuse you.
He represents the urban blow-back against the vote-bank politics that ignored the cities but is coming centre stage as the country rapidly urbanises.
The AAP itself may not last long, but it is only a harbinger of a politics which is here to stay, and which demands greater participation by the people, greater accountability, and is energised by the electronic media and new modes of communication. 

In limbo: Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi is caught between the rhetoric of modern politics and the vision of 20th century governance 

All along, parties have chosen to focus on rural votebanks because the Indian electoral system is biased towards rural constituencies.
The official definition of what is urban comes through the Census of India. But there is also a social psychological state of mind generated by the sorry state of Indian farmers, migration, electronic media, mobile phones and better rural connectivity, all of which is urbanising the Indian mind.
India's future is relentlessly urban, but it is simply unprepared for it in terms of infrastructure or jobs for the new migrants.
Antiquated
Rahul Gandhi occupies some kind of a purgatory in all this. He may have a modern mindset, but as of now he remains firmly embedded in the 20th century Congress.
With its modern outlook, the Congress should have been the first to have understood the demands of the new politics, but, ironically, they will probably be the last.

A long process of reinvention and rediscovery lies ahead for the party. 21st century politics are not some futuristic exercise.
They stress plain old-fashioned things that Indians missed out in the 20th century like economic growth, good education and opportunity for their young.
Importantly, they may mark the end of the politics of votebanks, whether through the fraudulent secularism of the Congress, the attempted counter-mobilisation of the "Hindu majority" by the BJP, or the caste mobilisations of Mulayam, Lalu & Co.
Some of this is borne out by a survey conducted by the Lok Foundation, associated with the Center for Advanced Study of India at the University of Pennsylvania earlier this month, which said that 25 per cent of the respondents felt that economic growth was the main issue, followed by corruption, cited by 21 per cent of those polled.
Inflation was number three with 18 per cent.
Issues of "identity" influenced just 7 per cent, and only 3 per cent were concerned about receiving government benefits.
As for the Muslim vote, the authors of an article that accompanied the survey noted: "Contrary to conventional wisdom, the preferences of Muslims largely mirror the all-India pattern. The top three issues remain growth (22 per cent), inflation and corruption (21 per cent)."
Squandering
Ironically it was UPA I which showed a glimpse of the opportunities that could come with economic growth.
But they squandered their chance in the belief that 20th century "Garibi Hatao" slogans were the road to the future.
As for the identity politics of Mulayam, Mayawati or Nitish, they have all clearly peaked and the trend of the future is against them. Jayalalithaa and Mamata are one-trick ponies, whose parties will fade over time.
The very visible churn that India is going through indicates that those politicians who are not able to adjust to what the people are looking for will be on their way out sooner, rather than later.
By attacking the 20th century way of doing things – by crony capitalism and corruption – the new politics are bound to change India for the better.
This change will come not just through macro measures like the introduction of large-scale manufacturing or modern agriculture, but in a number of small ways – better schools, safer cities, better urban facilities, mental institutions and jails, fairer purvey of justice and so on.
There should be no doubt either, that should the BJP attempt to revert to its Muslim-bashing, divisive politics of the past, it, too, will find itself on the way out.

Opportunist: BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is an ambitious and hugely opportunistic man, who has not hesitated to grab his chance at political leadership 

The big losers will be the 20th century managers who have failed us, the bureaucracy which has sought to block change through a variety of means, including a mass takeover of regulatory mechanisms introduced by reform-minded politicians to change the system.
Politicians however are a hardier species, the dinosaurs will fall by the wayside, but the more agile ones will evolve and move ahead.
Mail Today March 20, 2014

Lessons in World Politics

Vladimir Putin has given us an important lesson in world politics. He has reminded us as to just how it is a run-through ruthless pursuit of self-interest. Over time, hegemons like the US or, before it, Great Britain, learn to disguise it and convince us that what they are doing is actually good for us. But at the end of the day, it is about yourself and your interests.

But it is not just about ruthlessness or focused self-interest, neither is it about force. It is also about the ability to recognise an opportunity and above all, it is about timing. For some time now the Russians have been under pressure from the US and its European allies. As its population and economy atrophied, the West relentlessly pushed eastward.

First, the erstwhile eastern Europe was incorporated into the NATO alliance. Then, in the shadow of 9/11, as the US flexed its muscle across the world, invaded Afghanistan and Iran, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia were admitted into NATO. The admission of the Baltic Republics was particularly alarming since NATO now came onto the very borders of Russia. The Bush administration also sought to roll back the Anti Ballistic Missile treaty, and sought to place elements of the American missile defence system in countries like Poland and the erstwhile Czechoslovakia, raising concerns in Russia that the US would undermine its strategic deterrent capabilities.

The Russians sought to remain in the game by using their gas supplies as a lever to moderate European behaviour, but the pressure came through multiple means, not in the least the colour revolutions, notably the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004 and the Rose Revolution in Georgia of 2003 which brought pro-western governments to power in those countries. You can be sure that in both events, the United States would have played a clandestine role. It would be against its grain to not do so.

Shorn of all the verbiage about democracy and all that, the US is the global hegemon who pursues its self-interest ruthlessly. When it looks at the geopolitical map of the world, it sees two major challenges — first, Russia, with its vast expanse, resources and huge nuclear arsenal, and second, a rising China whose military capabilities may be limited today, but they are growing rapidly, along with its economy. As far as the US is concerned, they are both potential adversaries, though the nature of the US relationship with them is very different. There is little trade or technology interaction between Russia and the US, while the US and China are deeply involved with each other as trading partners and in addition, China owns more than $ 1 trillion of US treasury bonds. China benchmarks itself against the US and sees it as a rival, though as of now the Americans are vastly superior in economic and military terms.

As for Russia, the effort has been to try and stabilise its situation in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union. The US and the West have maintained a constant pressure to ensure that Russia does not again pose the kind of threat that the erstwhile Soviet Union did. The NATO expansion, colour revolutions and no doubt clandestine efforts within have been aimed at ‘democratising’ Russia. For long Mr Putin like the Chinese, played a waiting game. He went along with the Bush administration’s policies in Iraq and Afghanistan, even though the latter meant the expansion of NATO’s role to its near abroad in Central Asia. Indeed, by facilitating the Northern Distribution Network, Russia has been helping pull Washington DC’s Afghan chestnuts out of the fire. Arguably, Russian diplomacy in Syria saved the West from undertaking a potentially disastrous course. But ever since the US stumbled, first in Iraq and then in Afghanistan, both China and Russia have been selectively challenging the US. Both are old powers who have a sound grasp of realpolitik. They have challenged the US only at the periphery of its own power-East China Sea, or in Georgia in 2008 and now Ukraine. And they have done so where they feel that their core interests are at stake. Putin has, of course, been helped by the fact that the Europeans simply lack the will or the wherewithal to challenge the Russians.

And American interests there are peripheral, especially when viewed from the prism of an administration which seems determined to avoid any new foreign entanglement.

The US would be foolish to deepen the new Cold War atmosphere by trying to isolate Russia. As for China, that option is simply not open to them any more. The reason is that the Americans need cooperation from Moscow to deal with Syria, Iran and Afghanistan. They ought to be able to see Russia for what it is — an essentially defensive power, which can actually be helpful, if not needlessly provoked. That, of course, would not quite be the assessment of the real challenge— China.

Mid-Day March 18, 2014

Vladimir Putin has given us an important lesson in world politics. He has reminded us as to just how it is a run-through ruthless pursuit of self-interest. Over time, hegemons like the US or, before it, Great Britain, learn to disguise it and convince us that what they are doing is actually good for us. But at the end of the day, it is about yourself and your interests.

Power play: For long, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin played a waiting game by going along with the Bush administration’s policies in Iraq and Afghanistan, even though the latter meant the expansion of NATO’s role in Central Asia
But it is not just about ruthlessness or focused self-interest, neither is it about force. It is also about the ability to recognise an opportunity and above all, it is about timing. For some time now the Russians have been under pressure from the US and its European allies. As its population and economy atrophied, the West relentlessly pushed eastward.
First, the erstwhile eastern Europe was incorporated into the NATO alliance. Then, in the shadow of 9/11, as the US flexed its muscle across the world, invaded Afghanistan and Iran, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia were admitted into NATO. The admission of the Baltic Republics was particularly alarming since NATO now came onto the very borders of Russia. The Bush administration also sought to roll back the Anti Ballistic Missile treaty, and sought to place elements of the American missile defence system in countries like Poland and the erstwhile Czechoslovakia, raising concerns in Russia that the US would undermine its strategic deterrent capabilities.
The Russians sought to remain in the game by using their gas supplies as a lever to moderate European behaviour, but the pressure came through multiple means, not in the least the colour revolutions, notably the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004 and the Rose Revolution in Georgia of 2003 which brought pro-western governments to power in those countries. You can be sure that in both events, the United States would have played a clandestine role. It would be against its grain to not do so.
Shorn of all the verbiage about democracy and all that, the US is the global hegemon who pursues its self-interest ruthlessly. When it looks at the geopolitical map of the world, it sees two major challenges — first, Russia, with its vast expanse, resources and huge nuclear arsenal, and second, a rising China whose military capabilities may be limited today, but they are growing rapidly, along with its economy. As far as the US is concerned, they are both potential adversaries, though the nature of the US relationship with them is very different. There is little trade or technology interaction between Russia and the US, while the US and China are deeply involved with each other as trading partners and in addition, China owns more than $ 1 trillion of US treasury bonds. China benchmarks itself against the US and sees it as a rival, though as of now the Americans are vastly superior in economic and military terms.
As for Russia, the effort has been to try and stabilise its situation in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union. The US and the West have maintained a constant pressure to ensure that Russia does not again pose the kind of threat that the erstwhile Soviet Union did. The NATO expansion, colour revolutions and no doubt clandestine efforts within have been aimed at ‘democratising’ Russia. For long Mr Putin like the Chinese, played a waiting game. He went along with the Bush administration’s policies in Iraq and Afghanistan, even though the latter meant the expansion of NATO’s role to its near abroad in Central Asia. Indeed, by facilitating the Northern Distribution Network, Russia has been helping pull Washington DC’s Afghan chestnuts out of the fire. Arguably, Russian diplomacy in Syria saved the West from undertaking a potentially disastrous course. But ever since the US stumbled, first in Iraq and then in Afghanistan, both China and Russia have been selectively challenging the US. Both are old powers who have a sound grasp of realpolitik. They have challenged the US only at the periphery of its own power-East China Sea, or in Georgia in 2008 and now Ukraine. And they have done so where they feel that their core interests are at stake. Putin has, of course, been helped by the fact that the Europeans simply lack the will or the wherewithal to challenge the Russians.
And American interests there are peripheral, especially when viewed from the prism of an administration which seems determined to avoid any new foreign entanglement.
The US would be foolish to deepen the new Cold War atmosphere by trying to isolate Russia. As for China, that option is simply not open to them any more. The reason is that the Americans need cooperation from Moscow to deal with Syria, Iran and Afghanistan. They ought to be able to see Russia for what it is — an essentially defensive power, which can actually be helpful, if not needlessly provoked. That, of course, would not quite be the assessment of the real challenge— China.
- See more at: http://www.mid-day.com/articles/lessons-in-world-politics/15165060#sthash.C43OqPwE.dpuf

The 2014 elections could mark the start of 21st century politics in India

Almost everyone is agreed that the general elections of 2014 could well be the most interesting election they will witness in their lifetime. Several developments suggest that the elections could mark a big shift of the political paradigm and, in that sense, they could well mark the true beginning of 21st century politics in the country.
The elections seem to signal the end of the trend that began in 1990s - the Mandal and Kamandal politics that gave rise to the Bharatiya Janata Party and the caste-based formations that took power in the Ganga belt. 

Narendra Modi is fighting the election based on what he says is his sterling record in providing economic and social development

Today's BJP is very different from the old party, which sought to use the emotive issue of constructing a Ram Mandir to come to power.

Governance

The BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi may be a former RSS pracharak, but he is fighting the election based on what he says is his sterling record in providing economic and social development in his home state of Gujarat, as well as - he asserted on Sunday - communal peace in the 10 years since 2002.
There may be some talk of the Mandir by the Sangh Parivar outfits like the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, but BJP leaders, especially their chief ministers like Raman Singh, Shivraj Singh Chouhan or Vasundhra Raje Scindia, are with Modi in insisting that development and "good governance" are the issues that motivate them.
The Mandal parties clearly have their backs to the wall. This holds true as much for Nitish Kumar as his rival Lalu Yadav.
In Uttar Pradesh, too, it is difficult to escape the impression that Mulayam Singh Yadav represents yesterday's flavour in politics.
And so in a much bigger scale it is the Congress which is seeking to discover the idiom of the current age and making a hash of it. Even its great innovation - primaries to select candidates - is taking on a farcical air.
The Aam Admi Party and the various elements that have rallied to Arvind Kejriwal's banner mark, another trend in Indian politics where the people are articulating their distrust of older political parties and outdated political ways.
Gaining power by displaying power, whether through hangers on, lal battis or mega rallies is on its way out. Everyone is scrambling to be the aam admi.
The people have become distrustful of ideological certitudes, be they of the Hindutva variety, or the socialistic bilge that Congressmen spout. 

Dawn of a new era?

They want a direct say in their governance and want to monitor their leaders' performance.
All democracies have the problem of convincing people that their representatives are really hard at work representing them. But now there are insistent demands that the public be involved directly in taking decisions that affect them.
This is the kind of movement that AAP represents, and it is hardly surprising that one of its leaders wanted a referendum on whether or not the Indian Army needed to be deployed in the Valley of Kashmir.

Referendum

Actually Switzerland is the only instance of a place where referendum-run democracy works. This has much to do with history, and with the cultural traits of the Swiss people who avoid radicalism in their political and social life.
An effort to copy the Swiss system in California has failed miserably. Influenced by the Swiss, California adopted the ballot proposition system whereby a proposed law or even constitution amendment is put up directly to the voters for a referendum.
The proposal can be made by the state legislature, or even through a public initiative by collecting signatures of a certain percentage of voters. The people can, through a referendum adopt a proposition which can veto a law passed by the legislature and even the constitution.
The propositions are usually linked to ballot during state or national elections which take place every two years.
The most infamous has been Proposition 13, passed in 1978, which set limits on property taxes and required a 2/3rd majority in the legislature for any tax increase.
The result is that California skirts bankruptcy every now and then and its school system, which had been the envy of the country, is now ranked amongst the lowest in the US.

Accountability

What the propositions often end up doing is to dividing the electorate and passing laws which contradict or trump laws passed earlier. And it is not as though they keep big money out of elections.
It is well known that "dark money" has been involved in campaigns against gay marriage or the legalization of marijuana.
Another recent Proposition, 28, has reduced to 12 years the total time a California politician can spend as an elected official. This is the kind of democracy the AAP seems to be looking for, but it is more likely to confuse Indian politics than make it more accountable.
At least a legislator can be held to account for his conduct or vote - but who is responsible when a crowdsourced law makes things go haywire?
As of now, many of these ideas and developments are straws in the electoral winds. But the outcome of the General Elections 2014 will only be a manifestation of the change that is taking place across India, not the change itself.
A great deal of this is the impact of new technologies like the telephone and TV which make us feel more connected. But it is also about economic growth which has brought with it great migration, as well as a steady growth of urbanisation.
The clear message to all parties seems to be that ideologies and caste loyalties are mattering less, what the people want is better governance, greater governmental accountability and better prospects for themselves and their children in this lifetime, not the next. 
Mail Today March 4, 2014

Focus on the Navy's structural reforms

There is some strange logic doing the rounds these days. It is that Vice Admiral Shekhar Sinha, being the Flag officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Western Naval Command, is somehow “responsible” for the alleged spate of accidents that have afflicted the western naval fleet. By this reasoning, accepting the resignation of Navy chief Admiral D K Joshi was the right step, even though Defence Minister A K Antony has been roundly criticised for accepting his resignation with the alacrity that he did, without waiting for any inquiry, or a formal consultation with the Cabinet Committee on Security.

 A news report has suggested that a cable that caught fire may have caused the INS Sindhuratna accident that killed two officers. The responsibility for this does not rest with either Admiral Joshi or Sinha.

Because, if the former Navy chief D K Joshi and Shekhar Sinha are somehow culpable, so is the entire chain of command downward and upward — the Flag Officer who actually commands the western fleet, the Flag Officer Maharashtra Gujarat area, Commodore commanding submarines (west) and the Sindhuratna’s captain. Upwards, it leads to the now departed Chief of Naval Staff, and in parallel to the the Joint Secretary (Navy), the Additional Secretary, Defence Secretary, and then, to the Defence Minister, Prime Minister and, of course, the Supreme Commander of the armed force, the President of India.

Clearly, this would be an absurd construction. The reason why it is being played out is because people fail to differentiate between assuming “moral responsibility” for an accident, and “culpability” or even “constructive responsibility” for it. Neither Admiral Joshi nor Sinha, or for that matter the PM, RM and the President are culpable for the accident, whose causes are yet to be determined. They may share constructive responsibility, though, whether it requires their resignation is another matter. In the past ten years, some 110 Indian Air Force aircrafts have crashed, some due to human error, others due to manufacturing or maintenance defects. During Operation Parakram, hundreds of soldiers died, even though we didn’t have a war. Many were killed by defective mines and fuses. But no one took responsibility, either constructive or moral.

Admiral Joshi has insisted on taking moral responsibility and that is to his credit, but it is a deeply personal decision.

He was the one who insisted on the removal of the captain of the INS Talwar after it hit an unlit fishing boat off Mumbai a month or so ago. He has always set high standards, and he probably feels that he needs to live up to it.

There was probably another reason. There has been a subtle campaign of trying to show some recent naval incidents as institutional failures, rather than the accidents that they mostly were. Take just one example: earlier in February, a news agency report noted that the defence minister had hauled up the Navy chief over the malfunctioning of a boiler on the INS Vikramaditya that had joined the fleet in January after being refurbished in Russia. First, this ship has a history of boiler problems — the Ministry of Defence’s poor handling of the deal is the subject of a CAG report no 18, of 2008-09. Second, it had come after an arduous journey of nearly a month, covering 18,000 km. The malfunctioning of one of its eight boilers was hardly unusual, that is why it had a crew of 187 Russians to fix such problems. It could certainly not have been attributed to some fault of the Navy. Yet, read the tone of the report and you will see that it was.

What gave the game away was an associated complaint — that the ship’s crew were celebrating its journey through social media. This sounds very much like the ignorant babus of the MoD, because it betrayed the lack of understanding of what navies do and how they do it. While operations of war are at the heart of maritime strategy, one of its key aspects is to show the flag — awe and impress friends and adversaries through presence. It is for this reason that flotillas visit foreign ports, invite citizens of these countries on board for social functions and participate in activities on-shore.

In the last couple of years, the tasks of the Navy have been expanded without a corresponding expansion of personnel or equipment. First came the anti-piracy duties, which India was committed to along with other navies.

Recall that some pirates were even found close to Indian waters during the height of the piracy crisis. Second, after the Mumbai terrorist attack of 2008, in a knee-jerk reaction the government ordered the Navy to take charge of coastal security.

There is little doubt that the developments are yet another manifestation of the poor state of the relationship between the civil and military sides of the Ministry of Defence. This is something only the political leadership can resolve through structural reform, as well as knocking a few heads.

Unfortunately, the perception is that the only heads being knocked are the uniformed ones.

Mid Day March 4, 2014

India is just another stop on China's Silk Route

There is a certain panache with which China does things these days. Two weeks after a PLA Navy flotilla carried out the first series of exercises to enter the Indian Ocean via the Lombok Straits in Indonesia, Beijing invited New Delhi to be part of the maritime silk route aimed at improving connectivity and trade among Asian nations.
This invitation came during the 17th round of the talks between the Special Representatives of the two countries that took place in New Delhi last week.

Chinese Premier Xi Jinping has invited New Delhi to join the maritime silk route aimed at improving trade among Asian nations

Dialogue

At the talks, the Chinese SR, State Councillor Yang Jichei also invited India to undertake a maritime dialogue with China.
Indian officials have generally welcomed the two suggestions, though they say that the shape, nature and agenda of the dialogue remains to be determined.
But it is the naval drill that has gained a great deal of attention. Three ships, including the Changbaishan - China's largest landing craft which can carry a marine battalion and 15-20 armoured vehicles - crossed the Makassar Straits between Sulawesi and Kalimantan, and then went through the Lombok which is between Bali and Lombok island and entered the Indian Ocean.
According to Chinese sources, the exercise, which used a giant hovercraft made in Ukraine, was to force a passage through the straits by using amphibious forces. Teng Jianxin, a Fellow at China Institute of International Studies, was cited in the Chinese media as saying that the aim of the exercise was to display the ability to break through a strait which may be under the control of an adversary.
Incidentally, the Changbaishan is much bigger than the similar INS Jalashwa that India acquired second-hand from the United States in 2007, and China has three such ships and is making more.
In December, New Delhi floated a tender open to domestic companies for building four ships of the Changbaishan size. But, given the way we do things, it will be a while before we can expect the vessels to actually take to water.
Traditionally, the PLA Navy was configured for coastal defence and the invasion of Taiwan. But it now has oceanic ambitions. According to a report in a Russian military magazine, China is building four aircraft carriers, and may take the number up to six.
Not only are the Chinese experimenting with various advanced technologies like electric propulsion, they have also reportedly mastered the technology of the electro-magnetic catapult which only the US has, and which it has reportedly offered India.
With six carrier battle groups, China will be within hailing distance of US capabilities which are built around 10 carrier groups, with two under construction.

Sea lanes

The maritime silk route idea was first mooted last year when President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang stormed South-east Asia in a major diplomatic foray aimed at winning friends and isolating Japan.
A parallel land silk route is already functioning with Chinese railways, pipelines and roads snaking westwards into Central Asia, towards Europe.
Simultaneously, China has mooted an off-shoot of the silk route to link Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar (BCIM).
Like many industrialised nations, China depends on the sea lanes for imports, with 80 per cent of its oil transiting through the Malacca straits. But China cannot be unaware that India sits at the head of the straits and a US ally, Singapore, is at its other end.
So, as a matter of abundant caution, Beijing is laying down the alternate routes which include the Lombok straits, and could in future include the Sunda straits as well.
Of course, it must be pointed out that under UNCLOS, all major straits must remain free from blockades even if they are under the jurisdiction of a particular country. Further, going through straits with a flotilla in peacetime is quite different from a wartime scenario.
China is also hedging its oceanic routes by developing land connectivity through Central Asia, Russia and Myanmar.
There is a certain sophistication to the Chinese message. On one hand, Beijing is signaling that its sole interest is in protecting its considerable commercial interests, which includes important energy supplies from the Persian Gulf and Africa.
On the other, it is ensuring that everyone knows that its diplomacy is anchored on strong and rapidly growing PLA capabilities. It will engage with other nations to protect the sea lanes of communications. But if needs be, it will enforce it through the might of its rapidly expanding naval capabilities.

Navy

At the same time, it is not backing off on any of its claims, outlandish as they are, when it comes to the South China Sea. In December, Hainan province announced new rules for fishing in the South China Sea which covered not only Chinese territorial waters and exclusive economic zone, but international waters as well.
This action seems to fly in the face of Chinese efforts to improve ties with ASEAN, especially Vietnam. 
In the SR talks last week, China was at pains to reassure India that at no point would it interfere with the freedom of navigation in the high seas.
This was an oblique riposte at the Indo-Japan joint statement of last month where, the two sides reiterated "the commitment of Japan and India to the freedom of navigation [and] unimpeded commerce," and for good measure, added, "and peaceful settlement of disputes based on the principles of international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)." 

On Saturday, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi reiterated China's peaceful intentions to US Foreign Secretary John Kerry. The US has recently, for the first time, made it clear that it does not accept China's exaggerated claims in the South China Sea.
But even as India engages China in a dialogue, or becomes a way station in the sea silk route, New Delhi needs to take some lessons from China and anchor its maritime policies on a strong navy.
As of now, we can more than hold our own in the Indian Ocean against all but the US Navy. But, tomorrow is another day.
Mail Today February 19, 2014

The shifting targets of Arvind Kejriwal

There are things about activists and polemicists, memory has little place in their argument. Arundhati Roy said she would secede from India after the nuclear tests and she is still around; Medha Patkar threatened ‘jal samadhi’ many times, but, of course, with the grace of God, she, too, is still very much with us. So it is with Kejriwal. He first denounced politics, and then decided to contest elections. Despite the fact that his party did exceedingly well, but not enough to form a government, he swore he would not take the support of the BJP or the Congress, but within a week, accepted the Congress support to form a government that is now history.

The collapse of the Aam Aadmi Party government on Friday has opened itself up to as many analyses, as the streams of opinion that constitute the party, and I suppose, this republic. Arun Jaitley of the BJP says it is the end of a nightmare. The Congress and Shiv Sena said that he ran away from responsibility. Others say it is deep strategy to get out of a losing game and jump onto a winning one — the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

You would have to have been an incredible optimist to believe that it was going to work in the first place. Here was a man who had built up a movement that tore the insides out of the United Progressive Alliance. He reluctantly entered formal politics, but shocked everyone by winning 28 out of 70 seats in the Delhi state assembly elections, just three behind the BJP, whose party it spoilt. After playing coy, he accepted Congress support and formed the government, which came apart last Friday.

From the outset, he declared war on two key pillars of any government — the administration and the police. For this, he got the grateful thanks, not so much of the middle-class which wanted better governance, but the poor who face the brunt of the thoroughly corruption riddled system daily.

All this while, Mukesh Ambani did not figure in Kejriwal’s demonology. But suddenly, he is there, now manipulating the Congress and the BJP to bring down the AAP government. At the heart of the Kejriwal system is the concept of constantly shifting targets. When one proves elusive, head for the other. So, first it was the Congress, then the Delhi administration and now Mukesh Ambani, BJP and Narendra Modi.

Kejriwal thrives on constant movement and all-pervasive enemies. In another time and place, they yielded fascism.

But thankfully, as of now at least, Mr Kejriwal does not believe in strong arm tactics, though his lieutenant Somnath Bharti is not quite above that either. In another era, Kejriwal, a saviour like Robespierre or Mao would have simply shot/guillotined his opponents, and replaced the government with his men. But in the era of democracy, he had to confront a system that works with thorough rules. And the rules said that he did not have a majority. It also said that the administrators and police could not be purged simply by fiat; there had to be due process.

Since taking on, these two key components of administration, who are admittedly overwhelmingly corrupt, was central to the Kejriwal mission. It was clear that he was not interested in making things work, but on making a point and having made that in 49 action-packed days, he has left Delhi still waiting for its saviour.

Well, it’s not just Delhi. It is the whole country and that is what lends power to the AAP. The system is rotten; both principal parties have run it at various times, but they have simply used it to their own benefit, leaving the masses to their fate.

As if to highlight the Kejriwal drama, the national Parliament was showing last week just how unconcerned it is about the issues that affect the people. And the message coming across from everywhere seems to be that there is no hope.

But, and this is the beauty of democracy, it leaves us options, unlike the poor Chinese, who had to suffer Mao’s Great Leap Forward, Great Famine and the Cultural Revolution in succession, losing tens of millions. There can be little doubt that the churning that we are witnessing is going to come up with a positive result for the nation. No, it may be Modi, and it may not. Changes of the kind the country is looking for do not come in election cycles. These relate to longer term social and behavioural shifts.

There can be no doubt that we need a paradigm change in governance, not just in the way our police and municipalities function, but how our corporates behave towards investors, banks and consumers. It is difficult not to see that one era — the one that came with Mandal and the crony capitalism of liberalisation — is coming to an end. There are some who would take us back up the road to the Mandir. But that, too, is not what the country is looking for.

Mid Day February 18, 2014