The
recent visit (February 19-24) of the Nepalese Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has
not quite restored the glow to India-Nepal ties. When Prime Minister Modi
visited Nepal twice in 2014, he raised enormous expectations of a new era in
India-Nepal ties which have never been as good as they should be, considering
the unique relationship between the two countries. Geography has locked India
and Nepal with each other and their historic and cultural ties have been
burnished by the open border of a kind that no two countries in the world
share.
However,
things went downhill in 2015. First there was the devastating earthquake that
hit Nepal. India played a major role in providing relief, but that effort was
marred by some over-the-top Indian media coverage that seemed to rub Nepal’s
nose in the dirt. This was followed by the crisis around the new constitution
promulgated in October 2015, which still persists because Madhesis, Tharus (who
live in the plains area of Nepal) and the low-caste Janjatis oppose some of its
provisions.
The
constitution appeared to be a deal between the three ‘pahari’ or
mountain-dominated parties — the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified
Marxist-Leninist, UML), the Nepali Congress(NC) and the Communist Party of
Nepal (Maoists). The three are traditional rivals, but they got together to
foist a constitution which was deliberately weighted against the plains’ groups
who now form anywhere between 30-50 per cent of the country’s population and
have the capacity to play a “swing” role in Nepali politics. The resulting
Madhesi agitation and blockade was supported by India, because New Delhi has
long chafed at the attitude of the mountain parties who are all too ready to
use anti-Indian rhetoric to score political points and, worse, use China to
offset the Indian influence in Nepal.
Oli’s
reaction to the Madhesi agitation was to take a hard-line position and accuse
India of fomenting it. He sent several delegations to China to develop an
alternate energy corridor. But China has always been cautious in taking on
India in Nepal. It makes symbolic gestures, but when push comes to shove, it
backs off for the simple reason that it is simply not worthwhile economically
or politically to supplant India in Nepal.
Finally,
on December 20, 2015, the Nepal Cabinet held an emergency meeting and agreed to
make a deal with the Madhesi agitators on the issue of provincial boundaries
and pass a constitutional amendment to provide for proportional inclusive
participation of the Nepali people in the various state organs and the
delimitation of the electoral constituencies on the basis of population.
Even
then, India did not relent. It was only after the Nepalese Parliament endorsed
the Constitution Amendment Bill that things began to move. Within hours of the
end of the blockade on February 5, Nepal announced the visit of Prime Minister
KP Sharma Oli to New Delhi. Oli said he was coming to India to remove the “misunderstanding”
that had developed between the two countries. Later, he announced on February
19 that a high-level political committee would be set up to review provincial
boundaries in a three-month time frame.
No joint
statement issued following Oli’s six-day visit and officials say differences
between the constitutional process to effect the changes that Nepal has
promised remains. During the talks, the Nepali government gave assurances that
the constitutional changes, the issue of boundaries and citizenship would be
addressed in the coming months.
The
Indian side welcomed the constitution, but noted that its success would depend
on “consensus and dialogue” and the ability of the government to deal with the
issues related to building the consensus. The Indian side also sought to learn
a little bit more about the terms of reference of the mechanism that the Oli
government had promised on December 20, 2015.
Both
India and Oli have gained through the visit. Oli has signalled that he is
acceptable to a key neighbour and hence, strengthened his own position within
the Nepali politics. India, on the other hand, has managed to show that it can
do business with Oli, and that China has not gained ground in Nepal at the cost
of India.
The Modi
government has also achieved its goal of convincing the Government of Nepal
that India remains its primary interlocutor. India had pledged $1 billion in
reconstruction aid, of which 40 per cent is in grants and the rest soft loans.
During Modi’s visit in 2014 another $1 billion was promised over the next five
years. India’s red line for dealing with Nepal relates to security. Given
Nepal’s location, and the fact that the 1,800-km India-Nepal border is not
militarily defended, means that India cannot afford to have a government in Nepal
which is anti-Indian or, to be more precise, is not friendly to New Delhi.
Mid Day March
1, 2016