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Saturday, April 11, 2020

India ‘Chased’ a Chinese Ship from its EEZ but US Intrusions Go Unchallenged

Going by media reports, it would appear that India has scored a great naval victory in “chasing away” a Chinese research vessel from the Andaman Sea. The truth is more complicated and prosaic.
India and China are among those countries which insist on demanding greater control over foreign military activities in their exclusive economic zone (EEZ), defined by the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as the area “200 nautical miles from the baselines from which the breadth of the territorial sea is measured”. Indeed, both India and China have passed domestic laws to back their views on the permissibility of foreign navies conducting military activities in their EEZ. And there should be no doubt that the Chinese ship was on a military mission even though it was a research vessel.
The right of a coastal state to stop foreign ships from conducting military activities in its EEZ is not universally accepted. Such a right is not a formal part of international maritime law as articulated by UNCLOS, but appears in the form of unilateral declarations made by countries at the time of their accession to the convention.
When it ratified UNCLOS in 1995, India declared that it was its understanding that the convention did not “authorize other states to carry out in the EEZ and on the continental shelf military exercises or maneuvers, in particular those including the use of weapons or explosions, without the consent of the coastal state.”
While formulating its national law, New Delhi demanded only that states seeking to carry out military activities in India’s EEZ provide prior notification. China, on the other hand, has taken a harder line – saying that they must seek Beijing’s permission.
In 1976, India passed the Maritime Zones Act which formally required all foreign warships to give prior notification when passing through the territorial waters of India, even while making an innocent passage. Though it is possible that national legislation passed well before UNCLOS could be in conflict with it, India has not taken any steps to amend it.
UNCLOS itself is quite clear that while exploiting the resources of the EEZ and the seabed are the right of the coastal state, there are no restrictions on the passage of vessels, military or commercial through them. Likewise, no prior notification is needed for “innocent passage” of military vessels through the actual territorial waters of the coastal state, i.e. covering a distance of 12 nautical miles from the coast line. UNCLOS does call on states to refrain from the threat or the use of force against coastal states, but it does not prohibit the collection of hydrographic intelligence data in the EEZ of another state.
The Chinese have, in the past, collected data in India’s EEZ. This time, too, the ship, could have presumably challenged the Indian demand that it leave, but felt prudent to accede to it, for reasons best known to itself. Perhaps the calculation was that any detention of the ship in an Indian harbour could have possibly revealed secret equipment and information on board.
The Chinese have, in the past, collected data in India’s EEZ. Photo: PTI
US intelligence and survey missions
Ironically, while the Chinese and Indian positions are roughly similar on this issue, the country that takes the toughest line on a strict interpretation of UNCLOS is the US, a country which has not even ratified the convention. The US regularly carries out intelligence and survey missions in India’s EEZ. These used to occasion protests from New Delhi in the past. In these fraught times, however, the government and navy prefer to remain silent on US operations in the EEZ, even as they tom-tom their ‘victories’ over China.
In line with its sense of where its global interests lie, the US carries out freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS) against what it says are “excessive maritime claims”. In essence, this means that, in the case of India, the US Navy challenges the Indian assertion that it needs New Delhi’s authorisation to conduct military maneuvers in the Indian EEZ.
Thus, India, along with other countries, has been the target of such operations since the very inception of UNCLOS in the 1990s. In 2017, the annual Pentagon FONOPS report listed India among 22 countries against which it carried out such operations. There is no record of the Indian Navy having attempted to thwart US Navy ships as they challenged India’s demand that they get prior consent for military exercises or maneuvers in the EEZ.
Though the number of countries that were challenged rose to 26, and included Pakistan and US allies like Japan, the US Navy seems to have given India the miss in its 2018 FONOPS.
Selectively challenging supposed violations
This is not to argue that the US is right and India is wrong, but to point to the hypocrisy of selectively challenging supposed violations of the EEZ. If New Delhi has the gumption, it should demand that the US ratify UNCLOS. And then insist on some sort of guarantees that coastal states will not be subject to close surveillance by foreign navies. The fact that China’s perspective on this issue is similar to India’s means the two countries could even jointly push this cause.
Of course, Beijing’s own approach to UNCLOS has many problems, as has emerged from its Nine Dash Line maritime claim and its reclamation of rocks and reefs in the South China Sea – militarising them and then rejecting arbitration that questioned its claims.
In the press conference where he revealed the episode of “chasing away” the Chinese ship, Indian Navy chief Karambir Singh revealed that there is already a permanent presence of Chinese ships in the Indian Ocean and that 7-8 ships are always around in an area where China has deep sea mining rights.
As of now, the only navy capable of operating globally is that of the US. But as the PLA Navy grows, it is bound to flex its muscles in a similar way and abundant caution would suggest that India anticipate the challenge by pushing for the EEZ norm. Clarifying, and if necessary, pushing for changes in UNCLOS would be a useful exercise as the geopolitical competition heats up in the Indian Ocean.
The Wire December 5, 2019

For a Quad strategy

Academic discussions on security and foreign policy tend to get confined to capital cities where the policy-making elites cluster. For this reason, the Pune Dialogue on National Security (PDNS) has marked out a unique place for itself in the country. Not only is it outside the capital region, it is also proximate to India’s financial capital which has no comparable discussion on issues such as the ones the PDNS has had in recent years.
The fifth annual dialogue held earlier this month focused on three ostensibly disparate issues — the Indo-Pacific Region, economic and climate security. Its goal was to look at security in a holistic manner, examining the intersection between  geopolitics and geo-economics.
In his keynote address, former Navy Chief Admiral Arun Prakash paraphrased the Miles Law, saying that country perspectives on Indo-Pacific are determined by the location of the observer. He noted that the Indo-Pacific  was in a state of flux, both conceptually and militarily, with countries like India, Japan, the US and ASEAN coming out with their own interpretations of the idea which is yet to take firm roots.
There was a time when for the US, the region called ‘Asia-Pacific’ ended in Southeast Asia. We South Asians were seen as being part of the ‘Near East’. Renamed as ‘Indo-Pacific’, it is now seen as a new geopolitical region. The reason for the change is obvious. When it was Asia-Pacific, China loomed large, but with the addition of India, a country of considerable size and potential, China looks a little bit smaller.
But as is well known, Indo-Pacific means different things to different people. Prime Minister Narendra Modi told the Shangrila Dialogue in 2018 that India viewed the region stretching from the ‘shores of Asia to the Americas’ as a geographical, rather than a geopolitical entity.
The US mooted the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy in 2017, which it says is an ‘iron-clad and enduring commitment’ to the region that spans from ‘Hollywood to Bollywood’, featuring critical linkages in economics, governance and security. Though the Trump administration undermined the key economic pillar of the strategy—the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) — it is making some  efforts to promote investment in the region. In June, the US Department of Defence issued its first Indo-Pacific Strategy report, underscoring the importance of  ‘preparedness, partnerships and the promotion of a networked region’. Even so, it’s not clear the extent to which President Trump  himself is committed to the strategy.
Clearly, a lot of the Indo-Pacific strategy is about pushing back China. And there it remains a work in progress, with the US itself undermining key relationships such as the ones with Japan and South Korea. Then, take the Quadrilateral Dialogue between India, the US, Australia and Japan. Though it has been upgraded to ministerial-level talks, it’s not clear what its goals are. As Ambassador BS Raghavan pointed out in his remarks, Quad was not a strategy, but ‘four countries looking for a strategy’.
Everyone swears by the notion of ASEAN centrality, but ASEAN itself is riven with differences over China. Though they released their document  ‘ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific’ earlier this year, the grouping’s point of view is still not clear.  Like the Indian position outlined by the PM, the ASEAN one also hedges, and does not give any comfort to those who want the Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China.
The second major PDNS theme this year looked at three separate but interrelated themes of economic security — agrarian distress, unemployment and climate change.
Geopolitics and geo-economics can come together for India if it can get its domestic economic and social act together. We all know that we need to restructure our economy, undertake a manufacturing revolution to employ people from the countryside and new entrants into the job market, like women. But getting down to doing things is another matter.
As it is, the situation is not good. As Prof Santosh Mehrotra pointed out in a presentation, growth of non-farm jobs fell by half after 2012. But if India could have high growth in that area in the 1999-2012 period, there is no reason why it cannot happen again, he noted. The really alarming issue is the failure of India to become a manufacturing nation. In the 1999-2005 period, India used to create two million or so manufacturing jobs annually. This slipped to a million per annum in the 2005-12 period, and now, we are actually seeing a loss of about six lakh jobs per annum. 
The session also had focused presentations pointing to ways in which this situation could be handled. Setika Singh spoke of the experience of her NGO Parivartan in Bihar, and there was a presentation on the experience of the Magarpatta Township development. But these are pilot schemes, and they would have to be scaled up by orders of magnitude to make any difference.   
Located where it is, and with its grand history, Pune has a rich pool of technological and entrepreneurial talent, as well as orthodox security policy wonks in the form of a vast community of retired military officers, diplomats and civil servants. They come together at the Pune International Centre which is the core of the PDNS, and previous dialogues have examined other themes related to security—technology, governance, geopolitics, economic growth and social change. Similar pools exist in other places, Chandigarh for one, and there is no reason why they should not be more active in contributing to the debate on national security and foreign policy.
The Tribune November 26, 2019

PM Modi at BRICS: Playing Chess with China on Trade & Terrorism

Sometimes it is difficult to decide whether multilateral summits, such as that of BRICS that has just concluded in Brasilia, are important in themselves, or because of the opportunities they offer the leaders of individual countries to stay connected to each other.
The summit was held amidst the lengthening shadows of the Sino-US trade war which is pulling down global growth.
Clearly, the latter was seen in the connect between Prime Minister Modi and China’s President Xi Jinping.  According to reports, Modi remarked to Xi that “I’m glad to meet you once again. When I look back, we had met for the first time in Brazil itself ( for the Fortaleza summit in 2014) .”
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Chinese President Xi Jinping, in Mamallapuram on Friday, 11 October.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Chinese President Xi Jinping, in Mamallapuram on Friday, 11 October.
(Photo: PTI)
Recalling the Chennai meeting, Modi said that “our meeting in Chennai gave our journey a new direction and new energy.” Waxing eloquent he also said “The journey of unknown people has today turned into close friendship”, noting the repeated meetings they have had in many forums, bilaterals and summits.

Talking Trade and Investment, Again...and Again

There was an immediate context to their conversation which is taking place a month after their second informal summit in Mamallapuram, and weeks after India decided not to join the RCEP. That context relates to the Sino-Indian economic relations which is featured by a growing trade imbalance between the two countries and fears that Indian industry could be swamped by Chinese goods in the event India joined the RCEP.
It’s not surprising, as a PMO tweet noted, that the two leaders discussed trade and investment. This is a problem area in the relationship which they sought to address in Mamallapuram by creating a high level mechanism on trade and economy to address the issues between the two countries. The Indian side is represented in the mechanism by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and the Chinese side by Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, who is also a member of the Chinese Communist Party Politburo.
Another important signal was that the two leaders sent from Brasilia is to note that the Special Representatives would be meeting again soon to discuss issues related to the border question. This is an important signal and it is important that they do not take their eye off this ball as it has the potential of seriously disrupting their game.

India’s Focus on Combating Terrorism

Modi’s message, delivered in the speech at the plenary on Thursday, was that terrorism was the “biggest threat” to development, peace and prosperity. This is in keeping with his remarks at other summits in recent years, but at variance with the fact that there has been no major terrorist attack in the country since he came to power. Terrorism has been a convenient stick to beat Pakistan with, but it doesn’t really resonate in a summit of BRICS countries. Given India’s push it is not surprising that terrorism and its financing were prominently listed in the Brasilia Declaration adopted after the summit.
During the meeting of BRICS National Security Advisers last month, India’s NSA Ajit Doval had put forward a proposal to host BRICS workshop on digital forensics.
The PM had bilaterals other than with XI—with President Jair Bolsonaro who was host of the BRICS meet and who has accepted the invitation to be the chief guest of the 2020 Republic Day function.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with President Jair Bolsonaro
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with President Jair Bolsonaro
(Photo: AP)
He met President Putin of Russia, his fourth meeting with him this year. After the path-breaking meeting in Vladivostok  earlier this year. Both sides are making efforts to step up their sub-par economic relationship which needs to move beyond defence to areas like energy, connectivity and infrastructure. And he also met President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, a country with enormous potential for India.

Why is BRICS Important?

It is more difficult to assess the value of BRICS as a combine. Certainly, given its membership—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—it is an important economic bloc and a key voice of the developing world on issues relating to the WTO or climate change. Significantly, all BRICS members are also in the G-20. Meetings between the leaders and officials take up issues relating to trade, finance, health education, technology and Information Technology. In recent years security has also figured and it is not surprising that Brazil and India have been pushing to have counter-terrorism also part of its agenda.
BRICS is serious business, as brought out by the annexure to the Brasilia Declaration that lists the 116 meetings that have been held in the year-long Brazilian presidency. These ranged from the two summits to 16 ministerials and nearly 70 senior officials and sectoral meetings on issues ranging from national security to science and technology, agriculture, energy, labour and employment, customs protocols and so on.
India can put across its policy of multi-alignment by balancing ties with Russia and China, along with those with the US.
The theme of this year’s summit, “Economic Growth for an Innovative Future” had sought to address the importance of not just promoting manufacturing but innovation, using science and technology such as digital  and smart manufacturing techniques to aid BRICS countries can join the ranks of developed countries. The summit was held amidst the lengthening shadows of the Sino-US trade war which is pulling down global growth. And one of the major goals of the BRICS is to promote Intra-BRICS trade to offset this challenge.

India’s Long Strides in Putting Its Agenda Forward at BRICS

For India, membership of BRICS signifies its growing role in global affairs and provides it the ability to shape the global agenda. At the same time, it also provides a platform where India can put across its policy of multi-alignment by balancing ties with Russia and China, along with those with the US. One such area is counter-terrorism, something close to the heart of the Modi government. This was manifested by the creation of a BRICS Joint Working Group on Counter Terrorism in 2016 when India was chair of BRICS.
In a briefing before the Brasilia summit,  T S Tirumurti, the Secretary (ER) noted that while trade, Intra-BRICS cooperation and economic relations had been moving ahead, there was  an important development where the joint working group on terrorism had created five sub-working groups in terrorist financing, use of internet by terrorists, countering radicalization, the issue of foreign terrorist fighters and capacity building. During the meeting of BRICS National Security Advisers last month, India’s NSA Ajit Doval had put forward a proposal to host BRICS workshop on digital forensics.
The Quint November 15, 2019

China sends a tough message to Hong Kong

Earlier this month, the top authorities in Bejing got to focus on the Hong Kong issue. On November 4, Xi Jinping met Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam in Shanghai where he had gone to inaugurate the Second China International Import Expo (CIIE). Lam gave him a report of the situation in Hong Kong.
According to Xinhua, Xi told her that under her leadership, the Hong Kong SAR government had made great efforts to stabilise and control the situation and improve the social atmosphere. He said that the central government had high trust in her and fully recognised the work of Lam and her management team. 
China sends a tough message to Hong KongThat, of course, was for public consumption. The actual tough message was relayed to her at a previously unscheduled meeting two days later by Vice-Premier Hang Zheng, the State Council (Cabinet) member in charge of Hong Kong’s affairs, and whose clout comes from the fact that he is also a member of the CPC Politburo’s Standing Committee. Here, Lam was critiqued on the ways she had handled the violence and told in no uncertain terms that she needed to enact the national security law for the territory as per Article 23 of Hong Kong’s Basic Law. This is not as easy as it sounds. The passage of such a law, which would prohibit any act of treason, secession, sedition and subversion, has been attempted before and failed, and an attempt to do it again is bound to trigger an even greater intensification of the protests.
The Xi and Hang meetings with Lam took place days after the Fourth Plenum of the Central Committee closed on October 31. This was followed by a communique that had reiterated the importance of the ‘one country, two systems’ approach towards the ‘peaceful reunification’ of the country. Additionally, it had said that there was a need to “strictly govern the Hong Kong special administrative region and the Macau special administrative region in strict accordance of the constitution and the Basic Law and safeguard the long-term prosperity and stability of Hong Kong and Macau.” In line with this, the statement went on to say that there was a need to “establish a sound legal system and enforcement mechanism for safeguarding security in the special administrative regions.”
Briefing the media after the close of the Fourth Plenum, Shen Chunyao, a senior official of the National People’s Congress said that Beijing was planning to revamp the way in which the city’s chief executive and top leaders were appointed and removed, along with taking steps to enhance national security in the region. Beijing would also support a strengthening of the capabilities of the police and begin the process of educating the young with a stronger sense of national identity and patriotism.
But these are the very issues that have proved to be tough to implement in Hong Kong ever since Beijing re-established its sovereignty over the island in 1997. In 2003, the Hong Kong government tried and failed to introduce anti-subversion legislation in the island after mass protests. At the same time, they set aside proposals to bring ‘moral and national education’ into its schools at the instance of Beijing which wanted to strengthen the student's sense of national identity.
In 2014, protests again erupted after Beijing wanted to have Hong Kong citizens elect their leader from a panel of candidates screened by the central government. This led to a 79-day standoff, demanding voting rights for all. Beijing’s proposal was shot down in Hong Kong's legislature, but the selection of the Chief Executive remains limited to an electoral college of 1,200 legislators, most of them pro-Beijing.
The central authorities in China are simply not willing to acknowledge that Hong Kong may want to have something less than full integration with the People's Republic of China. Their inclination is to insist on a greater control of the system. So, it is not surprising that Beijing’s longer term plan for a troubled Hong Kong is to promote its integration into what is called the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area.
The Greater Bay Area Plan, at whose heart is the new bridge linking Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Macau, was unveiled in February 2019. Its aim is to transform Hong Kong and 10 cities around the Pearl River Delta into a global powerhouse to rival the San Fransisco Bay Area.
Guangdong is, of course, within the PRC's system and Macau has had its own national security law for the past 10 years, but proposals for similar legislation in Hong Kong have been resisted. Beijing is, however, clearly signalling that it will press on in consolidating its authority over Hong Kong, disregarding the views of the protesters.
When the plan was unveiled, the Chinese authorities saw Hong Kong’s ‘one country, two systems’ approach bringing in unique strengths to the plan as a gateway to international finance and investment. Combined with Macau, a tourism destination, and manufacturing centres like Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Zuhai, Dongguan and other cities of the region, the plan was to shape a Greater Bay Area as a centre for advanced manufacturing, innovation, international shipping, finance and trade.
Now, with over 25 weeks of protest, Hong Kong may well be committing suicide by losing its key attractions as a city of business, one of the great world centres of finance, an aviation and tourism hub with an abundance of managerial and professional talent. In fact, not just Hong Kong, the entire Bay Area dream may also be in a jeopardy if Beijing is unable to finesse the situation.
Tribune November 12, 2019

Nothing strong about it: Given its huge mandate, BJP government should have got us into RCEP and much needed reforms

It is well known in cricket that the only way to take down a powerful team is by a bold, attacking game featuring disciplined bowling and fielding, and aggressive batting. This is a lesson that India should have kept in mind when going into bat at the East Asia Summit where the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was finalised. Instead, it lost its nerve and opted out of the game at the last minute.
The reason for the Indian stand went beyond the claim that Indian interests were not being protected. The prime minister’s statement referring to his conscience and Mahatma Gandhi provides a clue as to why he acted the way he did. It had to do with the BJP government’s policy that privileges the building of its political supremacy, over the need to lead a larger economic transformation of the country.
Politicians cannot be blamed for such considerations, elections are about winning. But there is also a point after winning when there is need to lead – a process that sometimes requires persuading people to endure short-term pain for longer term gain.
Instead of aligning itself with an agreement that could have opened up foreign markets for Indian goods, services and investment we have put up walls to protect an industrial sector that remains unreformed and hence uncompetitive – as well as to preserve the interests of electorally important sectors like farming and small manufacturing, which too are in dire need of reformation.
This is an important moment in global affairs brought on by the great churning taking place because of China. As its economy matures, China is switching to consumption and hence emerging as a major importer. Its firms are moving from the labour intensive model, to producing higher value added products and services. This has led to a steep rise in wages and automation resulting in labour intensive production moving out to rural areas and abroad, mainly the Asean region. This process has now been accelerated by the US-China trade and technology war. Being located within a trade bloc of countries that included China and the Asean, could have made it easier for India to emerge as an exporting powerhouse, something it needs to be if ‘Make in India’ is to work.
There is an argument, of course, that having not carried out the deep reforms that were needed in the last five years, the government had no real option but to throw the game. But, whatever may have been the compulsions of the first term, this time, with its huge mandate, the BJP government could have taken the bit between its teeth, gone into the RCEP and used it to shock the system into much needed reforms. This could have triggered the long-awaited manufacturing revolution whose success, in turn, would have enabled the country to deal with the chronically crisis-ridden agriculture sector.
The problem is that our government has the ability to come up with grand visionary statements, but seems to lack the executive ability to implement policy. The last five years have given us a stirring vision of a New India, dotted with digitally connected Smart Cities and humming factories churning out goods for the country and the world. The reality has been somewhat more tawdry.
His supporters have hailed the prime minister for being “strong” and “decisive” and say that the stand on RCEP was very much part of this aspect of his personality. But making “strong demands” of the RCEP 15, as the Union commerce minister says India did, is not the issue. What was needed was the “strong” position the country ought to have been in while negotiating the RCEP.
What kind of credibility India’s Act East or Indo-Pacific policy will have while remaining outside its principal trading bloc remains to be seen. What is evident, however, is that leave alone being a global player, we have shown that we are not even capable of playing in the regional league.
Times of India November 9, 2019

In Anti-Terror Fight, India & Uzbekistan Must Strengthen Ties

Ever since the talk of a US pullout from Afghanistan gained ground, India has been paying greater attention to Central Asia. This manifested through the growing exchange of visits between Indian and leaders of the Central Asian republics, and India stepping up its aid commitments to the region.
This week, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh visited Uzbekistan, the first such visit in 15 years. As far as visits go, Rajnath Singh’s visit appears to be fairly routine, but it does mark a period of enhanced ties between New Delhi and Tashkent. Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s biggest military power and the country has also inherited important defence industrial assets such as the factory producing Il-76 transport jets, which the Indian Air Force also uses.
Rajnath Singh signed three MoUs to enhance cooperation in military medicine and military education and training fields, and held bilateral consultations with his counterpart, Major General Bakhodir Kurbanov. Thereafter, both ministers presided over the inauguration of the first joint military exercise ‘Dustlik 2019’, which begins today, 4 November, and will continue till 13 November at the Chirchiq Training area near Tashkent. India also extended a USD 40 million line of credit for the procurement of goods and services from India.

Much Dynamism Has Entered Uzbekistan’s World View

A great deal of dynamism has come into Uzbekistan’s world view, following the ascension of Shavkat Mirziyoyev to the office of President following the death of its longtime dictator and President Islam Karimov in 2016.
Mirziyoyev ended the isolationist policies of his predecessor, and has inaugurated a phase of engagement and the opening up of his country.
He paid a state visit to India a year ago in 2018, where a range of agreements and MoUs were signed. India also extended a USD 200 million line of credit for affordable housing. A few months later, in January 2019, Mirziyoyev was the guest of honour at the Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit.
The then Defence Minister Abdusalam Azizov was part of Mirziyoyev’s delegation in 2018. Subsequently, the Indian Defence Secretary visited Uzbekistan in March 2019, and the two sides held the first meeting of a Joint Working Group on Defence Cooperation in February, and the first defence industry workshop in Tashkent in September 2019.

Uzbekistan’s Tough Stance on Taliban

Uzbekistan’s strategic location vis-à-vis Afghanistan is obvious from the fact that it was through the Friendship Bridge in Termez that the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was launched in 1979, and it was by the same bridge, that the Soviet forces returned ten years later in 1989. Termez was also the southernmost point of the Northern Distribution Network that the US created in 2009 to bypass the Pakistani stranglehold on supplies for its forces in Afghanistan. Its airbase was the main support base for German and Dutch forces operating with the ISAF in Afghanistan.
Under President Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan took a tough anti-Taliban stand, and it is no coincidence that among the most radical of Islamist forces allied to the al-Qaeda was the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU).
Uzbekistan is the most populous country in Central Asia and borders all of them. Along with Liechtenstein, it is considered a doubly landlocked country, because its Central Asian neighbours also happen to be landlocked. For this reason its leadership is eager to promote greater connectivity with the outside world.
In 2018, on the eve of  Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Oman and that of President Hassan Rouhani’s visit to New Delhi, New Delhi acceded to the Agreement on the Establishment of an International Transport and Transit Corridor between Iran, Oman, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (Ashgabat Agreement).

Uzbekistan Understands the Importance of Counter-Terrorism Cooperation

The country pushing India to sign the agreement was Uzbekistan, which is keen to join the connectivity schemes that India is pushing — the International North South Transportation Corridor, and the railroad from Chabahar to Zahedan, which could be extended to Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif. Uzbekistan, for its part, has built a railroad connecting Termez, on the border with Afghanistan to Mazar-e-Sharif.
In 2015, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif announced the construction of a 650 km highway to link Gwadar with Termez, via Chaman and Kandahar. Nothing seems to have come of this project as yet.
The uncertain situation in Afghanistan has injected some urgency into India’s Central Asian policy.
It may be recalled that following the fall of Kabul to the Taliban in 1996, India began providing assistance to Ahmed Shah Massoud, the ethnic Tajik who led the Northern Alliance against the Islamist group. The aid came through Dushanbe and went to Farkhor, at a base maintained by the Indian intelligence services, which was on the border between Tajikstan and Afghanistan. A vital component of the aid was the military hospital at Farkhor, which treated the Alliance’s war-wounded. Massoud, who was injured in an al-Qaeda attack on 9/11, died in this facility after he was rushed there.
Both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are important from the point of view of Afghanistan.
But the latter is more important in a larger perspective. It is more populous and developed. The SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure is headquartered in Tashkent, and because of the IMU, Uzbekistan understands the importance of counter-terrorism cooperation.
The Quint November 5, 2019