दुनिया को दिशा देने वाली दोस्ती

जबसे पूर्व प्रधानमंत्री अटल बिहारी वाजपेयी ने घोषणा की कि भारत और अमेरिका 'स्वाभाविक सहयोगी' हैं, तब से दोनों देश धीरे-धीरे और व्यवस्थित ढंग से अपने संबंधों को आगे बढ़ा रहे हैं। यही बात प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी ने सोमवार को अहमदाबाद में दोहराई, जब उन्होंने कहा कि भारत और अमेरिका न केवल 'स्वाभाविक सहयोगी' हैं, बल्कि उनका सहयोग और संबंध 21वीं सदी में दुनिया की दिशा तय करेगा। मंगलवार को दोनों देशों ने घोषणा की कि उनका संबंध समग्र वैश्विक सामरिक भागीदारी के स्तर तक बढ़ाया जाएगा।
मंगलवार को नई दिल्ली में आधिकारिक स्तर की वार्ता के बाद अपनी टिप्पणी में राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप ने 'स्वतंत्र और संतुलित हिंद-प्रशांत क्षेत्र' और 'व्यापक व्यापार सौदे' के लिए भारत के साथ मिलकर काम करने की बात कही। यह देखते हुए कि तीन साल पहले उनके सत्ता संभालने के बाद से भारत को अमेरिकी निर्यात 60 फीसदी तक बढ़ गया है, उन्होंने व्यापक व्यापार समझौते पर दोनों देशों द्वारा की गई जबर्दस्त प्रगति को रेखांकित किया।सोमवार को अहमदाबाद स्थित मोटेरा स्टेडियम में अपने संबोधन में ट्रंप ने भारत की विविधता और बहुसंस्कृतिवाद की प्रशंसा की, लेकिन जबर्दस्ती, धमकी और आक्रामकता के जरिये दबाव बनाने की कोशिश नहीं की। वह चाहते हैं कि भारत अमेरिका का प्रमुख रक्षा साझेदार बने। उन्होंने कहा कि 'एक साथ मिलकर हम अपनी संप्रभुता और सुरक्षा की रक्षा करेंगे तथा स्वतंत्र व मुक्त हिंद-प्रशांत क्षेत्र की रक्षा करेंगे।' मंगलवार को दोनों देशों ने तीन अरब डॉलर के रक्षा सौदे पर हस्ताक्षर किए। सोमवार को राष्ट्रपति ट्रंप ने घोषणा की कि 'अमेरिका इस दुनिया के सबसे अच्छे और सबसे अधिक घातक सैन्य उपकरणों में कुछ भारत को देने के लिए तत्पर है।'

यह मानना गलत होगा कि भारत ने ट्रंप की यात्रा का दिखावा करने के लिए समझौते पर हस्ताक्षर किए हैं। 24 एमएच-60आर बहुउपयोगी हेलिकॉप्टर (2.12 अरब डॉलर) और छह अपाचे हेलिकॉप्टर (7.96 करोड़ डॉलर) की खरीदारी हमारी नौसेना और वायुसेना के लिए बेहद जरूरी है। इस समय भारतीय युद्धपोत इन हेलिकॉप्टरों द्वारा प्रदान की जाने वाली पनडुब्बी रोधी क्षमता के अभाव में पनडुब्बी खतरे से खुद को प्रभावी ढंग से बचाने में असमर्थ है। भारत और अमेरिकी रक्षा संबंध अचानक तेजी से विकसित नहीं हुआ है, जिसने अमेरिका को 1954 में पाकिस्तान को अपने खेमे में लेते या 1972 में चीन-अमेरिका के बीच सौहार्द विकसित होते देखा है। राष्ट्रपति क्लिंटन की यात्रा से लेकर डोनाल्ड ट्रंप की यात्रा तक दो दशक बीत चुके हैं। धीमी प्रक्रिया इस तथ्य से भी स्पष्ट है कि भारत ने 2002 में जनरल सिक्योरिटी ऑफ मिलिट्री इन्फोर्मेशन एग्रीमेंट (जीएसओएमआईए) पर हस्ताक्षर किए और चार में से तीसरे बुनियादी समझौते कम्युनिकेशंस ऐंड इन्फोर्मेशन सिक्योरिटी मेमोरेंडम ऑफ एग्रीमेंट (सीओएमसीएएसए) पर हस्ताक्षर 2018 में हुए।

बीच में दोनों देशों ने 2005 के भारत-अमेरिकी परमाणु समझौते के माध्यम से रणनीतिक संबंधों की दिशा में एक निर्णायक बदलाव किया, जिसके जरिये अमेरिका उन पाबंदियों को हटाने में सक्षम था, जो भारत के साथ उसे सामरिक समझौते करने से रोकते थे। यह ट्रंप प्रशासन ही था, जिसके कार्यकाल में और चाहे कुछ भी हो, इसमें तेजी आई है। उन्हीं के कार्यकाल में सीओएमसीएएसए पर हस्ताक्षर किए गए, भारत को एक प्रमुख रक्षा भागीदार के रूप में नामित किया गया, और रणनीतिक व्यापार प्राधिकरण-1(एसटीए-1) का ओहदा प्रदान किया गया, जो उच्च तकनीकी व्यापार के लिए मार्ग प्रशस्त करता है। हाल ही में दोनों देशों ने औद्योगिक सुरक्षा अनुबंध पर हस्ताक्षर किए, जो अमेरिकी और भारतीय कंपनियों के बीच सहयोग को बढ़ावा देगा। अमेरिका जानता है कि वह भारत से क्या चाहता है-चीन के खिलाफ एक प्रतिरोधी शक्ति। आकार, अवस्थिति और आर्थिक क्षमता के लिहाज से भारत एशिया का एकमात्र ऐसा देश है, जो बीजिंग विरोधी गठबंधन को नेतृत्व दे सकता है। तथ्य यह है कि भारत का चीन के साथ सीमा विवाद है और बीजिंग की पाकिस्तान के साथ दोस्ती को खत्म करना भारत के लिए तािर्कक है। लेकिन नई दिल्ली वास्तव में क्या चाहती है, यह स्पष्ट नहीं है। भारत के पास किसी तरह के स्पष्ट रोडमैप का अभाव है, ताकि वह दुनिया के प्रमुख शक्तिशाली देश अमेरिका द्वारा उसे दी जा रही तवज्जो का लाभ उठा सके।

हमें यह भी समझने की आवश्यकता है कि भारत और अमेरिका के भू-राजनीतिक हित समान नहीं है, जो पाकिस्तान, ईरान और रूस के साथ भारत के संबंधों से स्पष्ट है। अपनी साख के लिए ट्रंप ने अहमदाबाद में सोमवार को काफी हद तक ठीक ही कहा कि पाकिस्तान के साथ उनके संबंध बहुत अच्छे हैं। और वह उम्मीद करते थे कि भारत के साथ अमेरिका के संबंधों में प्रगति दक्षिण एशिया के सभी देशों के बीच भविष्य में सद्भाव और व्यापक स्थिरता पैदा करेगी। संयुक्त प्रेस कांफ्रेंस की अपनी टिप्पणी में अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप ने 'कट्टरपंथी इस्लामिक आतंकवाद' से अपने नागरिकों को बचाने के लिए दोनों देशों की प्रतिबद्धता को दोहराया। हालांकि उन्होंने यह भी कहा कि 'अमेरिका पाकिस्तान के साथ सकारात्मक तरीके से काम कर रहा है, ताकि पाकिस्तान की धरती से सक्रिय आतंकवादियों का मुकाबला किया जा सके।'

प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी के दृष्टिकोण से देखें, तो अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप की इस यात्रा का सबसे बड़ा परिणाम उनकी खुद की और भारत की प्रतिष्ठा बढ़ाना था। इसमें कोई संदेह नहीं है कि ट्रंप की यात्रा का कार्यकाल और मोदी के प्रति उनकी स्पष्ट पसंदगी तीसरे देशों से निपटने में भारत की सहायता करेगी। मेजबान होने के नाते इस बड़े कार्यक्रम में प्रधामंत्री मोदी की केंद्रीयता को लेकर कभी कोई संदेह नहीं था। यहां तक कि उत्तर प्रदेश के मुख्यमंत्री योगी आदित्यनाथ, जिन्होंने आगरा में अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप का स्वागत किया, तुरंत ही कैमरामैन के लेंस से गायब हो गए। जहां तक विपक्षी नेताओं की बात है, वे इस पूरे परिदृश्य से अनुपस्थित रहे, कुछ अपनी इच्छा से और कुछ मजबूरीवश।

लेकिन राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप की यात्रा के दौरान दिल्ली में जो दंगे भड़के, उस पर जरूर गौर किया जाएगा। सरकार अगर यह सोचेगी कि यह किसी साजिश का परिणाम था, तो वह खुद को नासमझ ही बनाएगी। सरकार की अपनी विभाजनकारी और बहिष्करण की नीतियों ने इस आग को भड़काया है और आप यह निश्चित रूप से मान सकते हैं कि अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप को इसके बारे में जानकारी दी गई होगी। यह 'आश्चर्यजनक प्रगति, लोकतंत्र का चमत्कार और असाधारण विविधता' वाले देश के रूप में भारत के प्रति उनकी अपनी टिप्पणी के खिलाफ जाता है। उन्होंने भारतीय संस्कृति की जीवंतता में योगदान देने वाले मुस्लिमों और अन्य समुदायों का दो बार जिक्र करके इस पर जोर दिया था।
Amar Ujala February 25, 2020

How virus outbreak has hit world economy

OVER 70,000 confirmed cases of the Covid-19 virus and more than 1,700 deaths have been reported so far. China remains the principal location of the outbreak and the cruise ship Diamond Princess has become the second largest centre of infection with over 450 confirmed cases, followed by Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan and Thailand. There are a significant number of cases in South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia Germany, Vietnam, Australia, US, France and Macao.

The economic impact of the virus is also now becoming clearer. Quarantine measures to check the virus have severely affected economic activity. Travel curbs all over the country have disrupted logistic networks and wreaked havoc on industries ranging from oil refining to tourism, hospitality services, civil aviation and manufacturing.

The Covid-19 outbreak has pushed down oil prices to their lowest level because of the disruption of travel and economic activity in the world’s largest oil and gas importer. According to one report, Chinese energy giant CNOOC has said it will have to suspend honouring some import contracts. Caixin has reported that weak demand has led to a rapid growth of inventory in refineries and such build-ups are also afflicting other heavy industries like steel and copper smelting.

The International Energy Agency has also lowered the 2020 demand growth by 365,000 barrels per day. This has a lot to do with the Covid-19 outbreak since China accounted for over 75 per cent of the global demand growth.

The outbreak has already hammered the weak auto industry where sales had been falling for the past two years due to the loss of incentives for electric cars and the slowing economy. In fact, says Yicai Global, as of mid-February, four-fifths of Chinas car dealers are still shut due to the epidemic.

Currently, many of the car manufacturing plants are also shut. Wuhan, the great Chinese industrial city, is one of the major centres of Chinese automobile production, with Nissan, GM, Renault, Honda and Peugeot having facilities there. But the most exposed automaker is Volkswagen which has some 24 plants accounting for 40 per cent of its production in China. Toyota which makes 15 per cent in China is also worried.

Besides, there are several auto component makers like Bosch, which has dozens of plants in China, including two in Wuhan. China is also the global hub for making electric motors, transmissions and other components of electric cars and it is not surprising that among those affected is Tesla which had begun delivering its Model-3 vehicles from its plant in Shanghai.

The greatest fear of the Chinese government is that the Covid-19 outbreak could lead to mass unemployment. For this reason, the central, provincial and local governments are emphasising measures to maintain stable employment through various aid measures, including tax cuts, loan repayment deferrals and the use of unused unemployment insurance funds. But the problem for local officials is that the twin tasks of containing the spread of the virus and keeping their economies up and running is proving to be too much.

If the crisis is not checked and factories, shops and restaurants unable to do business, it could add some RMB 5.6 trillion in new bad debt for lenders, effectively, trebling non-performing loans. For many small businesses, the Covid-19 outbreak is an existential threat. Caixin, a Chinese economic newspaper, cites a survey of 995 small and midsize companied conducted by Tsinghua University and Peking University after the outbreak and found that only 18 per cent or so could last three months with their current savings, and one-third could last one month and another third two.

Wang Tao, head of Asia economics and chief China economist at UBS, estimates that China’s GDP could plunge 1.5 per cent in the first quarter, assuming all companies are able to resume operations by the beginning of April with their current savings.

All this has had a ripple effect in curtailing Chinese tourists going abroad, disrupting China-centric supply chains and constraining economic demand in China. Among the countries most affected are Vietnam, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and South Korea.

Among those affected is the auto industry, Hyundai was forced to suspend production at its plants in South Korea because the Covid-19 disrupted its supply of parts. Korea gets nearly 30 per cent of its car parts from China. Fiat Chrysler said it had suspended production at a factory in Serbia because of shortages of parts made in China. Meanwhile, the giant Mobile World Congress which was to be held in Barcelona has been cancelled because of Covid-19 concerns.

Opinion is still divided as to the overall impact of the Covid-19 on China's economy and on that of the world. There are many who argue that this will be a short-term thing and will not have a significant impact on either. S&P Global, for example, says that the crisis will stabilise by April and there will be no new transmissions by May.

However, all that depends on the disease being brought under control. As of now, there is no indication that that is happening. Even now, there are no firm assessments as to when the disease will peak, which will be when the daily number of cases begins to decline consistently.

Even now, according to Chen Yixin, the deputy head of the ‘central guiding group’ in Wuhan, the government has not been able to get an accurate count of the number of people infected. The situation remains grim, a large number of health workers themselves have been infected and other parts of the province, and, indeed, China, are going into a quarantine lockdown.

Tribune February 18, 2020

Trump in India: Inside Story on What’s ‘Cooking’ on Both Sides

Donald Trump is visiting India on February 24-25, just after the efforts to impeach him were rejected in the US Senate. The President comes in an election year, but since he is not likely to face any challenge from his own party that is not a problem. Neither, at present, does it appear that the Democratic challenge look significant.

Trump sees the visit as a return favour for his “friend” Modi.

The  ‘Howdy Modi’ event in Houston that drew 50,000 Indian Americans may have been aimed at the electorate back home, but it also provided the US President with not just applause, but some political dividends in terms of votes and campaign contributions from the Indian American community. New Delhi was keen to invite Trump as the Chief Guest at the Republic Day parade in January, but the President declined because of what the White House said were “scheduling constraints.”

Trump’s over-the-top taste for tamasha fits well with that of his host Narendra Modi who is readying a mega show called ‘Kem Chho Trump’ in Ahmedabad, a glitzier and bigger version of the ‘Howdy Modi’ event in which Trump participated.

After a period in 2017- 2018 when the two did not meet because personal ties between Modi and Trump cooled, they have stepped up their engagement, meeting 4 times in 2019, including in the ‘Howdy Modi’ meet.

Deepening of India-US Ties

In the last four years, the relations between the two countries, especially in the area of defence has taken many leaps. In 2016, India finally signed Logistics Exchange agreement (LEMOA), that committed the two sides to support each other’s naval vessels and personnel with logistics, spares and fuel.

Two years later, they signed the Communications  security agreement (COMCASA). In  turn, the US designated India as a Major Defence Partner in 2016 and conferred the Strategic Trade Authorisation-1 (STA-1) status on India to streamlines exports of sensitive goods from the US in 2018.

In December 2019, the two sides signed an Industrial Security Annex to deepen industry collaboration between the two sides and enable greater sharing of advanced technology.

This was, in short, to facilitate India becoming a significant part of the US-led supply chain in the defence sector.

Institutional ties have also grown with frequent high-level visits including the annual “2+2” dialogue of the two countries’ defence and foreign ministers.

However, Not All is Hunky Dory Between Trump and India

But this past has not been glitch free. We had the US coercing India to give up oil purchases from Iran, and threatening to impose sanctions under their CAATSA legislation to block India’s defence acquisitions from Russia. Trump’s repeated offers to mediate in Kashmir have been unsettling for New Delhi, especially when the US Congress is paying an uncomfortable amount of attention to the lockdown of the state and the imprisonment of its mainstream political leaders.

On 12 February, a bipartisan group of US Senators—including Trump confidante Lindsey Graham—wrote to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressing concern over the continuing internet curbs in Kashmir—the longest shutdown by a democracy—disrupting access to medical care, business and education for 7 million Kashmiri people. The letter also refers to the Citizenship Amendment Act and the National Register of Citizens and says that Modi’s policies “threaten the rights of certain religious minorities and the secular character of the state.”

Also Read : ‘Will Strengthen Partnership’: Trump to Visit India on 24-25 Feb

Tricky Trade Deal: Will It Happen?

Actually, the bottom line is that when Trump talks and thinks of India, his most common refrain is trade. Not surprisingly, from the American point of view, the greatest amount of effort in preparation of his visit has been expended on a trade agreement. Multiple rounds of talks had taken place in recent weeks between the Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer over the telephone.

FIle image of Union Minister Piyush Goyal.

(Photo Courtesy: @PiyushGoyal)

Given the wide gulf in the positions of the two sides, most observers were expecting a limited trade deal during the visit, but the report that the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer was cancelling his visit to India has led to consternation in New Delhi.

As a result, the government has hurriedly let it be known that India is offering to partially open up its poultry and dairy market to sweeten the deal.

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President Trump himself is playing it cool as saying “if we can make the right deal, we’ll do it.”

In 2017, India’s trade surplus with the US stood at $30 billion. This has now gone down to $ 16 billion. Bilateral trade has now exceeded $140 billion. All such surpluses are a red rag for Trump who has variously blasted India as a “Tariff king” and  cancelled India’s General Scheme of Preferences (GSP) privileges.

What India Wants from President Trump

Recently the USTR office classified India as a developed country ineligible for the GSP. So, India is making a special effort to soothe the US. But many problem areas remain such as the recent Indian cess on medical devices, or data localization rules.

India is seeking a reinstatement of the benefits under the GSP scheme, as well as exemption from the high duties the US imposed on certain steel and aluminum products, greater market access for its agriculture and manufacturing sector, including autos and auto components.

The one area through which New Delhi hopes to win over Trump is defence purchases from the US. Here, they kill three birds with one stone. On one hand, India will make urgent acquisitions needed for its defence modernization, and on the other, they can tote  up the trade as part of the effort to reduce the trade deficit as well as show their strategic proximity to the US.

Defence and Strategic Deals to Bring India and US Closer

India has sealed two mega deals with the US together worth $ 3.5 billion (Rs 25 crore) These include 6 Apache attack helicopters for the Army ($930 million) and the $ 2.6 billion deal for the 24 MH-60R multi mission helicopters for the Navy.  The total Indian deals with the US since 2007 will now reach over $ 20 billion. The IAF had earlier acquired 22 Apache helicopters as well.

India is also looking at more deals—for six more P-8I long range maritime patrol aircraft ($ 1.8 billion), the Integrated Air Defence Weapons System for to shield Delhi against short-range missiles ($1.86 billion), 30 Sea Guardian armed drones ($2.5 billion plus) and 13 MK-45 naval gun systems ($1.02 billion) but it currently lacks the capacity to fund them.

The US is also pushing India to buy US fighters for its huge 114- aircraft deal for fighters. It is offering the upgraded FA-18, F-15s  and  F-16s for the Air Force.

India’s defence budget stands at $47.34 billion (minus defence pensions) and of this some $16.2 billion is the capital outlay to buy costly new weapons systems and equipment. However, 90 per cent of this is already committed to paying off past purchases.

Beyond the trade tensions and ‘Kem Chho’ extravaganza, there is a strategic context to the visit. The US views India as the only viable counterweight to China in terms of its size, economy and location. This is despite New Delhi’s reluctance to get into a situation where it has to directly confront China.

For its part, as it falls further behind China economically and militarily, India needs the US to balance Chinese power. The US is not unaware of this, but they have few choices and are happy even if the relationship grows at a slower pace than what they desire.

Quint February 24, 2020

Coronavirus: China's Failure to Act Quickly Is Now Straining the System

As of  February 12, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has killed 1,369 people and infected nearly 60,000. However, observers have noticed a decline in new cases of infection. According to the National Health Commission (NHC), the number of new cases fell from a peak of 3,887 on February 4 to 2,015 on February 11.

On Thursday, the Communist Party of China finally fired Jiang Chaoliang, a former banker who has been party chief of the Hubei province since 2016. He is being replaced by Shanghai mayor Ying Yong. The head of the party overseeing Wuhan, Ma Guoqiang, was also replaced by Wang Zhonglin, an official from Shandong province. This came in the wake of a significant jump in the numbers of those infected in Hubei as a result of the changed methodology for diagnosing and counting cases of those infected.

Significant outbreaks in Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea do not portend well, especially since there are no signs that the virus has peaked. Currently, some 60 million people in China are living under lockdown, severely disrupting normal activity. Given this situation, various cities and local governments have taken recourse to their own draconian measures, including travel restrictions, to prevent the spread of the virus.

On February 10, Chinese President Xi Jinping appeared in the national media in the evening news on an inspection tour of Beijing. He was seen wearing a simple surgical mask and accompanied by aides, and sending the message that the government remains in control of the situation and that the Chinese people will overcome the challenge together. Beijing also sought to quell the anger over the death of Dr Li Wenliang, the doctor who first reported on the virus, by sending a National Supervisory Commission team to Wuhan to “thoroughly investigate issues related” to him.

In fact, now two more doctors in Wuhan say that they were reprimanded by police for trying to warn others in the early days of the onset of COVID-19.

On February 12, Xi chaired another meeting of the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) where he said that the epidemic situation has shown “positive changes”. However, he emphasised the continuing challenge that China faced, and the meeting emphasised the need to raise hospital admission capacity, reduce the infection rate by prevention and control, improve treatment and provide more medical resources to Hubei province, especially Wuhan.

Also Read: Coronavirus: How Health and Politics Have Always Been Inextricably Linked in China

Equally, the PBSC highlighted measures to stabilise the economy and press on with measures such as tax and fee reduction to help firms and offer discounted loan rates to producers of anti-virus materials.

It called on a resumption of work and production in all enterprises. Foreign trade companies would also get financing support to promote trade, and a number of major projects would be accelerated. In particular, there was need to focus on employment and massive layoffs were to be avoided. Local governments were asked to use unemployment insurance funds to help businesses to keep their payrolls stable.

Very little still known

Meanwhile, doctors working in Wuhan say that they still know very little about the pathogenesis of the virus. Jiang Li, ICU director at a Beijing hospital who is currently in Wuhan, told Caixin that since they are not yet clear as to the actual cause of multiple organ failure, the treatment of severely affected patients remains a challenge. Also, doctors are pointing to the rapidity with which the condition of patients deteriorates. The biggest challenge, the authorities acknowledge, is to protect the doctors and medical workers themselves as it becomes clear that despite upgrading their hardware and research and public sanitation and prevention framework, China’s system has not been able to take the strain.

According to Global Times, nearly 17,000 personnel belonging to the Communist Party, employees of state-owned enterprises and institutions as well as faculty from universities have been sent to the most heavily affected communities to deal with the “four type personnel”: patients with confirmed cases; suspect cases; patients with fever; and those who have had close contact with the patients involved. All four types are supposed to be taken into centralised quarantine and treatment.

The authorities are still struggling to admit all possible patients given the upsurge. Caixin has reported that even the new hospitals – the Huoshenshan and the Leishenshan, which came up earlier in February – do not yet have their full quota of beds. In fact as of Tuesday, the former touted to have 1,000 beds is using just 286 currently, while the latter which opened later only has 30 beds in use out of the 1,500 promised.

A cover story in China News Weekly on February 5 had published a detailed timeline focusing on the discovery of the early cases and the local government’s response between December 1 and January 20. The item has been taken down but it has survived in various websites around the world. A Google translation notes that information on the virus may have been around since early December. At the end of the month, Dr Li Wenliang, who as at the Wuhan Central Hospital, messaged a WeChat group of his college alumni that it was not SARS but a new coronavirus.

When this leaked, Dr Li was summoned to the Wuhan Municipal Commission and told not to spread misinformation. A public statement was issued saying that there had been 27 cases of “a pneumonia of unknown cause” but that no human-to-human transmission had been detected. On the same day, the first teams from the National Health Commission arrived.

Customers wearing face masks queue for food outside a store, as the country is hit by an outbreak of the novel coronavirus, in Beijing, China February 12, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins

First cases in early December 

The first cases had been pointed out as early as December 8, but no effort had been made to close the Wuhan Seafood Wholesale Market, which was only disinfected several times. It was only 22 days later, on January 1, that the market, where the human infection is thought to have begun, was finally closed down.

The Wuhan CDC had commissioned a team of specialists headed by Shi Zhengli to test samples and by January 2, they had sequenced the entire genome of the virus and, after isolating it on January 5, made their findings available to the WHO under the instructions of the NHC. Another team in Shanghai also sequenced the entire genome using another technique and announced the findings on January 10.

By January 9, the coronavirus had been confirmed by a team comprising Xu Jianguo, of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and Li Xingwang who chairs the department of infectious disease at Beijing Ditan hospital and Cao Bin, a respiratory disease expert from Beijing. A paper in the journal The Lancet says that China was late in releasing key genetic data on the COVID-19. But it says that this was not a cover-up as much as the lack of effective procedures in providing outbreak information.

On January 13, Thailand announced a patient infected with the virus and that the person, a Chinese citizen, had not been to the Huanan market. Thailand announced the second case of a Chinese national on January 17 and the US CDC announced screenings at three major airports for passengers arriving on flights from Wuhan.

As per procedure, the Chinese authorities had shared COVID-19 data with WHO, but the first team from the organisation was only permitted to visit the infection area on February 10. The US, too, offered help, but as of now, they have not been given permission.

The Wire February 14, 2020

Signs of decay around pillars of democracy

Delivering the first Zorawar Singh Memorial Lecture at Jammu University in April 2004, the then Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, Lieutenant-General SK Sinha (retd) concluded by identifying the four pillars supporting the edifice of democracy in India — free elections, free press, independent judiciary and an apolitical army. “None of these pillars,” the General said, “should be allowed to be corroded or unhinged for that will spell the doom of democracy.”

Sixteen long years later, signs of decay and deterioration around the pillars are evident. The irony is that the General was principally addressing the role of the military in a democracy, but today, of the four, it is the military pillar that shows the least signs of corrosion.

There was a time till the 1980s when rigging in elections was not uncommon, especially in the badlands of the Hindi-speaking belt, West Bengal or Jammu and Kashmir. The man who cleaned up things, Chief Election Commissioner TN Seshan (1990-96) was able to do it because the authority of the dominant ruling part of the time, the Congress, had visibly declined. Massive security and multi-phase elections became the norm as did a massive crackdown on visible election expenditure.

With a new dominant party in control, the story of today can perhaps be simply summed up by the efforts of the government, returned to power with a clear majority last year, to harass Ashok Lavasa, one of the three election commissioners. His stance, sometimes at variance with those of his two other colleagues, has irked. But his real ‘crime’ was to refuse the clean chit to the BJP’s top leaders in relation to some of their controversial election speeches. Income tax investigations were initiated within months of the new government taking power against five members of his family, including his wife. As per the norms, Lavasa is on track to be the Chief Election Commissioner when the current incumbent retires.

There is, of course, another story to be told about the electoral bonds scheme. Created to deal with black money, it has proved to be the legal channel ostensibly through which the ruling BJP has received massive funds from individuals and corporates.

The decline in the quality of journalism has been most manifest in these years. But the ruling BJP is only partly responsible for it. The blame must fall on the media itself, which, to paraphrase LK Advani’s memorable description of the press during the Emergency, is crawling, when it has been merely asked to bend.

It is not as if there is no good journalism or scoops today. The problem is that the social media, along with a number of noisy TV channels, drown out the impact of a major revelation, sometimes simply by using fake news. Media entities close to the ruling party are known to generate fake news on an industrial scale to swamp readers and viewers. They work along their own version of Gresham’s Law where shoddy news drives out the good.

The third pillar is the Indian judiciary. There was a time when the common belief was that the higher judiciary in the country made up for the infirmities of the lower one. Today, there are signs that like fish, the judiciary may be rotting from the head.

The signs of this were evident in the unprecedented press conference of four Supreme Court sitting judges held two years ago, raising questions about the integrity of the institution.

Since then, things have gone from bad to worse. The apex court has adopted a seemingly casual approach to the burning issues of the day, such as that of Kashmir or the anti-CAA violence and some of its judgments border on the bizarre.

In the case of Kashmir, a state of the Union has been bifurcated, demoted, and an Article of the Constitution relating to its autonomy removed through legal sleight of hand. Yet, the court is still in the process of hearing the petitions five months later while the new UT remains in a state of lockdown.

Speaking at a university function in Nagpur recently, Chief Justice of India SA Bobde echoed Prime Minister Modi’s call that citizenship is not just about rights, but also about ‘duties towards society.’ What the citizens are looking for from the court is a sharp attention to the protection of their rights, rather than homilies on their duties.

Of all the four pillars, the one that remains the least eroded till now is the armed forces, but not for the want of trying. Some military officers have not hesitated to be part of the process through which the military has been used to burnish the political credentials of the ruling party.

There could be more trouble ahead. Over the years, the country had developed a system where politicians and the military men stayed confined to their respective spheres. The politicians, with the help of bureaucrats, gave broad policy directions, approved promotions and sanctioned expenditure, while the military focused on its operational role. An important element of this compact was that promotion at the seniormost level was by seniority. All this went out with the appointment of General Bipin Rawat as the Army Chief, where two senior and highly regarded officers were superseded.

That the Indian democracy is under severe stress is now widely accepted around the world. Things do not look good as the ruling party pushes a majoritarian agenda with a view to polarise the electorate. Every country’s fate eventually rests in the hands of its citizens. It remains to be seen how the good people of India deal with what is most certainly an existential challenge.

Tribune February 4, 2020

A balance of forces: The very meaning of ‘victory’ and ‘defeat’ in a war has changed. Ask the Americans

Perhaps we should discount as electoral posturing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s claim, made earlier this week, that India’s military can defeat Pakistan in 7-10 days. Even so, it is difficult not to be alarmed. He’s not only the prime minister of the country, he is also the head of the Nuclear Command Authority. The so-called surgical strike of 2016 and the Balakot attack in early 2019 may not by themselves have been a winning factor, but they were an important element in the heady hyper-nationalistic brew that helped BJP prevail in the UP state assembly and the general election subsequently. But both were clearly limited events linked to specific Pakistan-backed terror strikes, and this was acknowledged by the government itself.

Now without any immediate provocation, the PM is talking about a general war. If so, he should know that in our era, the very meaning of “defeat” and “victory” has changed. Ask the Americans who “won” the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. And when it comes to war with nuclear weapons, things are even more topsy-turvy. Before accepting “defeat” the losing party has the ability to unleash weapons that will make the winning party’s “victory” look like defeat. The scale of destruction – whether the winner loses “just” five cities, to the loser’s 20 – would be epochal. The devastation would make it difficult for the winner and the loser to survive as functioning societies. Some argue that India can push the Pakistani red lines without inviting a nuclear response. But pushing red lines is hazardous business. It can trigger escalating responses that are out of anyone’s control.

Actually, even short of nuclear war, it is open to debate if India, the preponderant South Asian military power, has the capacity to best Pakistan at this juncture. This goes as far back as 1971 when, despite the splendid military victory in the eastern front, superior Indian forces fumbled in the west. None of their offensives – in Kargil, northern Kashmir, Shakargarh, or the desert, went anywhere. Indeed, the net result was the loss of Chamb. Nothing has changed since, and we should not be taken in by the hype surrounding the small and carefully managed “surgical strikes” and the Balakot attack. Pakistan has long maintained “effective parity” and it continues to maintain it, even without counting its nuclear weapons. Islamabad may lack the forces to launch a conventional attack on India, but it has rugged and prepared defences along its borders that would make any but the shallowest ingress very expensive. The option often mooted is to confine the fight to Jammu & Kashmir. This is an illusion, any major action there will spill over to the plains.

There is nothing currently in the Indian armed forces’ organisation, equipment or doctrine, to suggest that they can overwhelm Pakistan in quick time. The military has been seriously underfunded, curbing its effectiveness. Even if with its numerically superior forces, India gains an upper hand, it will be unable to exploit this because the big powers will not let two nuclear armed adversaries slug it out till mushroom clouds rise. Actually, even a limited conventional war this time around will be hugely destructive given the arsenal of ballistic missiles and bombs that both sides possess.

And then, there is China. Will it stand by and allow its only real ally to be defeated even in a limited sense? Unlikely. Indeed, the prime beneficiary of an India-Pakistan war could well be Beijing since it will weaken both South Asian parties regardless of who “wins” or “loses”. Truth be told, the government’s Pakistan strategy has painted it into a corner. Using hostility towards Islamabad for electoral gains has left it with a one dimensional policy and with just one instrument in hand – a hammer – that can be used only in limited ways.

Times of India February 1, 2020