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Thursday, April 09, 2020

By Detaining Farooq, the Centre Signals its Contempt for Kashmiri Representation

The detention of Farooq Abdullah under the draconian Public Safety Act is a mockery of the law and the constitution.
The 81-year-old former chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir has been under arrest since the August 5 lockdown that preceded the reading down of Article 370. But the decision to formalise his detention under the PSA came in the wake of MDMK chief Vaiko’s habeas corpus plea to the Supreme Court.
It is not as if the Supreme Court has covered itself with glory by going along with the government’s specious approach on Jammu and Kashmir. On Monday, while hearing another matter, a bench  comprising Chief Justice of India Ranjan Gogoi and Justices S.A. Bobde and S. Abdul Nazeer ordered, “The state of J&K, keeping in mind the national interest and internal security, shall make all endeavours to ensure normal life is restored.”
Instead of worrying about national interest and  making theatrical gestures like promising personal tours of the state, the honourable judges should be doing what their job is — upholding justice, which has been under severe strain in J&K. On the floor of parliament, on August 6, Union home minister Amit Shah had claimed that Farooq had neither been detained nor arrested, saying “He is at home on his own will.”
Now, suddenly, the government has discovered that the National Conference patriarch is a threat to public safety. Just what is this threat that requires his incarceration is not clear, unless it is the simple matter of not allowing him to express his opinion on the course of events the government has set in motion. As if this were not bad enough, it appears he has been confined to a single room in his house as part of his PSA detention.
Like all human beings and politicians, Farooq is not perfect. But he has, more often than not, been more sinned against than sinning.
The current dispensation is probably not well versed in history, so they may have forgotten the chain of events that led to the destabilisation of the Valley’s politics in the 1980s.
After the death of  Sheikh Abdullah in 1982, Indira Gandhi, in her wisdom, decided that Farooq Abdullah and the National Conference should ally themselves to the Congress party in the state assembly elections of June, 1983.
Realising that this would severely dent his credibility in the Valley, Farooq Abdullah resisted and instead allied himself to Mirwaiz Farooq. Their alliance swept the polls, but then Abdullah made the fatal move of calling an all-India Opposition conclave in Srinagar in October, 1983.
Farooq Abdullah even took a break from active politics, returning only when autonomy of J&K was relatively assured by the Deve Gowda government. Photo: PTI/Files
Indira Gandhi retaliated by having Arun Nehru and Mufti Mohammed Sayeed organise a coup (with the help of Governor Jagmohan) that led to defections from Farooq’s party and his replacement by his brother-in-law G.M. Shah as chief minister in July 1984.
Three years later, going against his better judgment, Farooq agreed to an alliance with the Congress in the 1987 elections. The elections were rigged to the point of irrelevance. In these circumstances, governance of the state took a major hit. Both the Union and state governments seemed unable to stem the decline, marked by the virtual boycott of the 1989 Lok Sabha elections in the Valley. It was in these circumstances that Pakistan  fanned the youth revolt that led to the rise of the insurgency in 1989-1990.
Even so, when the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front launched its armed struggle, Farooq kept his wits about him. This came through when Rubaiyya, the daughter of the new home minister, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, was kidnapped by JKLF elements demanding the release of their leaders in jail.
Farooq strenuously argued against any dealings with the JKLF. He used his contacts to pressure the JKLF to release Rubaiyya and had nearly succeeded when he was ordered by a committee of new Union ministers – Arun Nehru, I.K. Gujral and Arif Mohammed Khan – to release the JKLF leaders.
It was this single action that lit the fires that have ravaged the state since.
Between January 1990 and May 1996, Farooq stayed away from the state’s politics. In any case, this was a period when gunmen dictated the dialogue.
The Union government, increasingly desperate to show that normalcy had returned, continued to woo Farooq, aware that no election minus the NC would be deemed credible. It was only after a United Front government under H.D. Deve Gowda took office in New Delhi and promised “maximum autonomy” after the elections that Farooq relented.
He contested the elections, which was swept by the NC in September 1996.
Sheikh Abdullah addressing people in Kashmir. Credit: Wikimedia Commons
Farooq’s father Sheikh Abdullah addresses people in Kashmir. Photo: Wikimedia Commons
Perhaps the most questionable aspect of the Modi government’s Kashmir policy is its decision to place all mainstream Kashmiri parties and their political leaders outside the pale of the country’s laws or for that matter, political processes. Only that can explain the pattern of detentions which range from a CPI(M) leader to the leaders and cadres of the NC, Congress and the People’s Democratic Party.
With the parties that upheld the country’s flag outside the pale, who does the government expect will take up the task of providing political leadership to the people in the Valley?
That is, unless the Union government is planning to treat the Valley as some kind of an internal colony of the country.
Representation in a legislature, both state and Union, is a basic right of the citizens of the country and the key building block of our democracy. Talk of Panchayati Raj just doesn’t cut it. Even with its forcible demotion, there is or will be a J&K assembly and most of those elected to it will be from the three major political parties.
So what can the government be thinking ?
The Wire September 17, 2019

Too close for comfort

The developments in the Persian Gulf have taken a sudden turn for the worse. A drone strike on two major Saudi oil facilities has halved the kingdom’s daily oil production. The Houthi rebels, who are facing a brutal Saudi military campaign in Yemen, have claimed credit for the strike.
But US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed Iran, which has rejected the charge. In a tweet on Sunday evening, President Trump said, without naming Iran, that the US was ‘locked and loaded depending on verification’. The Americans may carry out strikes on Iran, but, given the credibility of the administration, there will be few takers for its version of the events anyway.
The region has already been on tenterhooks ever since the US launched its ‘maximum pressure’ policy against Iran. The US blamed Teheran for attacks on commercial tankers in the Persian Gulf in June. Amidst mounting tension, Iran shot down a US spy drone that it said had intruded into its airspace. At the time, Trump said he had called off an attack at the last minute because it would cause needless collateral damage.
US strikes and Iranian counter-strikes are a real possibility and could endanger the entire region. India could well face the biggest impact as it relies on the region for oil and gas. India imports 80 per cent of the oil it consumes, and of this, two-thirds comes through the Straits of Hormuz. In addition, the region also provides half of India’s liquified natural gas (LNG). Since the June crisis, Indian ships passing through the waterway have been assisted by Indian Navy vessels. However, should there be an outbreak of a larger conflict, the Indian Navy would have no option but to pull out from the area.  
The impact of the disruption of production in Saudi facilities could be limited and of short duration,  but should the situation deteriorate, besides the issue of oil supply, India may have to confront with much higher oil prices. According to one calculation, a $1 rise in the price of oil results in a Rs 10,700 crore annualised increase in the oil bill. Last year India spent $111.9 billion on oil imports alone. Currently, the oil prices are between $50 and $60 per barrel, but there is speculation that it could climb to $100 soon.
The blame for the current state of affairs must squarely rest on President Trump. He unbalanced US policy towards the region by precipitately pulling out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to freeze Iran’s nuclear programme. Then, he went out of his way to tilt US policy towards Israel and Saudi Arabia, personalising it in the form of Benjamin Netanyahu and Prince Mohammed bin Sultan (MBS).
The latter has gone out of his way to disrupt regional calm. He blockaded Qatar, kidnapped the Prime Minister of Lebanon and intensified the war against the Houthis in Yemen with a brutal air campaign that has led to untold suffering for millions of Yemenis. Remarkably, western newspapers reporting on the drone attack on Saudi facilities, played down the fact that this could have been retaliation for the wanton attacks faced by Yemeni civilians at the hands of the Saudi Air Force. MBS has done all this and more with the US looking the other way. In fact, Trump has vetoed two Bills calling for the end of US support for the war in Yemen.
The Trump turn on Iran has, in addition, blindsided New Delhi. India has been forced to cut off all oil trade with the country, which is the most proximate source of oil to the subcontinent. Further, it has dampened Indian enthusiasm for the Chabahar project. The volume of trade with Afghanistan remains low and there are no signs that India is going to keep its promise to build the railway line to connect Chabahar with Zahedan, the entry point for Afghanistan. The net consequence of New Delhi following Washington’s lead is that it has thrown the game in this strategic neighbourhood to China.
Notwithstanding its massive military superiority over Iran, the US is unlikely to take things casually. Iran is not Iraq, and its armed forces have been preparing for asymmetrical combat with the US for decades. American bases in the region are within the range of Iranian ballistic missiles which, in any case, can also rain down on Saudi and Emirati cities causing mayhem all around.
As with all things Trump does, there is a parallel track in which the US can make up with Iran and teach the Saudis a lesson. Recall that he sacked his National Security Adviser John Bolton because the latter opposed relieving some of the Iran sanctions earlier this month. Rouhani had made it clear that he would negotiate with the US only if economic sanctions were lifted. Thereafter there was talk of a possible Trump-Rouhani meeting at the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. On Sunday, despite the heightened rhetoric of the President himself,  White House Adviser Kellyanne Conway refused to rule out the Trump-Rouhani meet.
So, here we are, a few steps away from what could be a geopolitical catastrophe with major consequences for India. But if you were to look for signs that New Delhi was concerned, you would be unlikely to find them.
The Tribune September 17, 2019

Europe’s geopolitical shift: Its thaw with Russia holds out hope for a world not dominated by US and China

The exchange of prisoners between Russia and Ukraine earlier this week is a signal, albeit faint, that the European geopolitical tectonic plates are also shifting, along with those in Asia. This has consequences for India. Bitterness between the West and Russia over the latter’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 seems to be abating.  
The shift began with the election of Trump who refused to go by conventional thinking on Russia. His persistence in rebuilding ties with Moscow is apparent from his recent invitation to Moscow to attend the next G7 summit to be held at Miami next year. European Union (EU) and American pressure pushed Moscow to overcome its geopolitical wariness and embrace Beijing. The two built up a trading relationship based on growing energy exports to China, while Russia perforce has begun to rely on Chinese finance and manufactured goods.  At the heart of this partnership is the need to deal with their primary adversary – the US – and not worry about their backyards. But Russian weakness brought on, in part, by its EU quarrel, has pushed Russia to a junior status in its relationship with China, and Moscow knows it.
India has had to face a double whammy here. First, China has displaced India as Russia’s “go to” defence partner. There was a time in the 1990s when Russia ensured that India got the highest level of weapons systems that it exported – the Sukhoi 30 MKI, the Brahmos missile, technology for a nuclear propelled submarine and so on. Now China has that privilege, having been the first to receive the Su-35 and S-400 missiles last year. Second, India has to contend with the US Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions (CAATSA). The US is unlikely to ever supply India with a class of weapons like nuclear submarines or hypersonic missiles to counter China. The only country that would is Russia, and arguably France. Whether it is Russia or Iran, the US also wants India to subordinate its regional policies to align with those of the US.
Now there are signs of a thaw in American and EU ties with Russia. On September 9, France held 2+2 talks with Russia in Moscow.  It is not entirely a coincidence that all this is happening as the most hawkish anti-Russian country – UK – is leaving the EU. Germany-Russia relations, too, are much improved, witness the numerous high-level visits of German leaders, including Chancellor Merkel to Russia in the past year. The thaw has boosted the Normandy format meetings between Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine to resolve the crisis. On Monday, President Trump said he was not averse to joining the talks whose next round could take place at the end of the month. The stage is set for a possible compromise on Crimea. Other things could then follow.
In all fairness, both sides need to take a step back and look at their own conduct. NATO’s eastward expansion could not but have rattled Russia. In turn the latter built up a web of links with right wing and radical forces across EU. Paris was not amused when Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing  National Rally, confirmed that her party had received a 9 million euro loan from a Russian bank some years back, and that’s just the tip of the proverbial iceberg.  Europe and Russia understand the value of their relationship very well. Part of it is shared history, part is the present where Russia is the largest oil and natural gas exporter to EU and the latter is its largest trading partner and source of FDI.
Given its location, India has both continental and oceanic interests. European shifts in conjunction with a possible thaw in Iran-US ties will be a boost for India’s Eurasian interests. After taking Indian policy unconscionably close to the US, Modi is discovering the virtues of multi-polarity. A strong and stable Russia and EU would certainly be a better option than a world dominated by the US and China.
The Times of India September 14, 2019

Explainer: Donald Trump's Decision to Cancel 'Secret' Talks With the Taliban

On Monday, US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad had announced that an “in principle” agreement had been arrived at between the US and the Taliban after nine rounds of talks held between their representatives in Doha, Qatar for the past year or so.
Under the accord, roughly 5,000 US soldiers would be withdrawn in 135 days after the deal was signed and the remaining 9,500 US and 8,600 mainly NATO forces would be withdrawn in phases thereafter.
Speaking late last month, US President Donald Trump said that he had planned to withdraw most US forces, leaving 8,600 behind.
But then, abruptly on Saturday, Trump said he had called off a secret face-to-face meeting with the Taliban, scheduled to be held at the US Presidential Retreat in Camp David on Sunday. Separately, Trump was also scheduled to meet President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan.
Unbeknownst to almost everyone, the major Taliban leaders and, separately, the President of Afghanistan, were going to secretly meet with me at Camp David on Sunday. They were coming to the United States tonight. Unfortunately, in order to build false leverage, they admitted to..
52.3K people are talking about this
....an attack in Kabul that killed one of our great great soldiers, and 11 other people. I immediately cancelled the meeting and called off peace negotiations. What kind of people would kill so many in order to seemingly strengthen their bargaining position? They didn’t, they....
....only made it worse! If they cannot agree to a ceasefire during these very important peace talks, and would even kill 12 innocent people, then they probably don’t have the power to negotiate a meaningful agreement anyway. How many more decades are they willing to fight?
35K people are talking about this
The secret talks were called off, Trump said, because the militants acknowledged their role in a recent bomb attack in Kabul that had killed a US soldier in Afghanistan. He accused the Taliban of a wanton attack  “that killed one of our great great soldiers, and 11 other people” in order to “seemingly strengthen their bargaining position”.
On Thursday, the Taliban had claimed responsibility for a suicide car bombing in the eastern part of Kabul that killed 12 people, including a Romanian and an American soldier, and wounded dozens.
The Taliban and the Afghan delegations were, by Trump’s own account, scheduled to  arrive in the US on Saturday night. So far, the US has kept the Afghan government at arm’s length in the peace talks. Ghani, on the other hand, has been insisting that the Taliban declare a ceasefire immediately and hold talks with the Afghan government. The Taliban has refused, saying that the Kabul government is illegitimate. After being briefed about the “in principle” deal, Ghani had complained that it had no penalties for the Taliban were it to not honour its conditions.
Despite signs that the US was willing to make a deal with the Taliban and the repeated rounds of talks, the Taliban refused to end their campaign of violence against the Afghan government forces and the foreign forces in the country. So far 16 US troops have been killed in Afghanistan this year. But the worst brunt has been of Afghans themselves, who have been collateral casualties in the conflict. Though the Taliban do not control any major cities, they control more territory than at any time since the US-led campaign forced them out.
Just why Trump decided to pull out at the last minute is not clear. But it is not an unusual action on his part. Consider his recent decision to cancel his visit to Denmark, because the country refused to discuss the sale of Greenland. He later also cancelled an important visit to Poland that was part of the European tour to Copenhagen, because he said he had to monitor Hurricane Dorian whose limits he had fudged with a pen.
Maybe the penny finally dropped about the proximity of the talks with the 9/11 anniversary. A Taliban delegation in Camp David, along with the death of the US soldier in Afghanistan, may have been taken badly by his own nationalistic base. On the other hand, however, it could be that Trump finally realised that the Taliban refusal to stop its violence was, indeed, giving it leverage in the situation. The Taliban, though, insists that it is not under any obligation to stop attacks unless there is a full ceasefire in place. And it will not agree to a ceasefire till all the foreign forces have pulled out.
The US administration appears to be divided on a deal, with a report that secretary of state Mike Pompeo is refusing to sign the “in principle” agreement that Khalilzad has hammered out. Though secretary of defence Mark Esper met Trump on September 3, he has refused to reveal his views on what he says are “ongoing” negotiations.
In his 2016 election campaign, Trump had called for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, but of late he had been arguing that the US would maintain a presence of around 9,000 troops, the same number that had been there at the time he took office. But there has been no dearth of warnings from observers saying that the agreement would destabilise the situation and lead to a collapse of the Afghan state and a return of the medieval group that had enforced what they call the Shariat laws and brutalised women.

The Trump move is, however, likely to be temporary. He is keen to show that he has upheld his election commitments. As for the Afghan parties, they have suffered a great deal and they, too, want peace, but each on their own terms. Meanwhile, the Afghan government is keen to press ahead with national elections at the end of this month to consolidate forces.
The Wire September 8, 2019 

All that is wrong with New India of Modi

Among the several episodes that tell us about the way New India is unfolding, two—related to Dr Upendra Kaul and Prof Romila Thapar—stand out. Under the authority of the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA), the National Investigation Agency (NIA) had sent a notice to Dr Kaul, demanding his presence at its headquarters.  
Preposterously enough, it turned out that the NIA thought that a reference to ‘INR 2.3’ in an SMS exchange between the doctor and JKLF leader Yasin Malik referred to some hawala transaction. In reality, as the doctor explained to them, it was about a blood assay.  
The NIA may have the authority to summon Dr Kaul, but surely, the clarification could have been gotten through a phone call or sending an investigator to his office. Dr Kaul is not an unknown man in New Delhi. He is India’s pioneer interventional cardiologist who taught and worked for more than a decade in AIIMS, and currently chairs the heart centre at a private hospital. He was neither an accused nor a suspect; there was no reason for the NIA to invoke the dreaded UAPA to demand his compliance.   
Probably, there was another message in the summons: The good doctor has been a vocal critic of the Modi government’s decision to defenestrate Article 370 and demote Jammu & Kashmir’s status as a state of India. A prominent Kashmiri Pandit taking that position is clearly anathema to the government.  
As for Prof Thapar (87), the demand that she send her CV for revaluation of her life-time appointment as Professor Emeritus of JNU, borders on the ridiculous. But it, too, is politically motivated. It is no secret that the Hindutva ideologues ruling the country have a profound distaste for the university, even though several of its leading lights are alumni. Given their fondness to conflate myth with history, they are not too happy with historians like Thapar who have international stature. Not surprisingly, last October, JNU appointed Rajiv Malhotra, accused of plagiarism and a self-appointed defender of Hindu culture in the US, as visiting honorary professor.  
But this is only symptomatic of the banana republic that this country seems to have become with the spread of jahaliaat (ignorance) and incompetence in all sectors of life.
The signs are many. First, there are the tragicomic: the failure of the rifles to fire at the guard of honour during Jagannath Mishra’s funeral; a judge’s observations on War and Peace in Pune; the canal in Jharkhand that took 32 years to build and came apart in 24 hours; and a Union minister whose portfolio includes education and whose Indian pride claims border on fantasy.
But second, and worse, are the disastrous self-goals of the government of the day: the 2015 blockade on Nepal; demonetisation; the flawed GST rollout; draconian National Register of Citizens process; demotion and division of Jammu & Kashmir; and the raid on RBI’s reserves to replenish the government’s coffers. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has seen some of these as decisive acts of a government headed by a strong-willed Prime Minister. Maybe that is so, but the first three have already proved to be failures, just how the next two play out, remains to be seen.
In the meantime, India’s economy is slowly but steadily sinking. GDP growth has slowed to a six-year low of 5 per cent in the April-June quarter and is weak, no matter what spin you give. The problem is partly cyclical and partly structural and partly related to the global slowdown, so dealing with it requires sophistication and skill. Just how competently things are being run is evident from Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s steady rollback of her Budget measures, and the government’s seizure of the RBI’s reserves to make up for revenue.
Awareness of the need for reforms is actually the easy part. The problem is in getting a government capable of effectively executing them. The emerging crisis is not just about the global slowdown, lack of demand or the overhang of bad loans on the economy. It is actually about competence, both political and executive, of the Modi government.
Sure, Modi and Shah have proved that they know how to win elections. But whether or not they can run a country as huge and diverse as India remains a moot question. Instead of paying sustained attention to the longer term measures needed to put the Indian economy on the high growth path, they seem to get easily diverted into demonetisation, triple talaq, spats with Pakistan, roiling things in Jammu & Kashmir, and embarking on a global crusade against terrorism.  
 As for governance, all we get are slogans — Swachh Bharat, Plastic-Free India, Startup India, Bharat Mata Ki Jai and Jai Shri Ram. A national vision does not arise through the repetition of slogans. Neither, for that matter, does it come by vilifying the vision of predecessors, or a certain minority community. 
Given the size of the country and the wretched conditions in which hundreds of millions exist in it, there can only be one priority goal for the nation—the transformation of the economic and social conditions of the people so that they can leave hunger, poverty and ignorance behind them.
India has missed several buses going that way. This decade was supposed to be the one where that decisive shift should have taken place. Instead, as we come to its end, we seem to be missing another one.
The Tribune September 3, 2019

Saturday, November 30, 2019

Is Crunch Time Approaching for Hong Kong Protests?


As the Hong Kong protests show no sign of easing, observers are wondering if crunch time is approaching. October 1, 2019, is the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) and it is just about a month away. Beijing would like to give an image of authority and control on that occasion; the continuance of large-scale protests in Hong Kong would contradict that. The PRC is confronting the most significant challenge to its power since the ill-fated Tiananmen Square uprising, and there are no clear indications as to how it plans to handle it.
The Chinese authorities have been increasingly critical of the protestors, especially after the national insignia at the Central Liaison Office which represents the PRC government in the city was defaced in late July. Since then, the rhetoric has been scaled up to blaming the unrest on unspecified “black hands.”
In the first half of August, the Communist Party of China brass met at the resort town of Beidaihe as per its summer tradition. According to a report, they are increasingly talking about the developments there as a “colour revolution”, of the kind that shook the former Soviet Union and the Balkans in the early 2000, reportedly aided by western intelligence agencies.
On Sunday, the protests picked up momentum, compelling the Hong Kong police to use water cannons for the first time at protestors who threw bricks and firebombs. A Hong Kong police officer also fired a warning shot into the air after seeing a fellow officer fall.
China’s official news agency Xinhua shifted from comparing the Hong Kong protests with colour revolutions, to directly charging that they were, in fact, that. A commentary published late on Sunday quoted Deng Xiaoping in 1984 saying that in the event of unrest in Hong Kong, the central government should intervene. The commentary said that under the Basic Law (Hong Kong’s mini-Constitution) and the Garrison Law, “it is not only the authority of the central government but also its responsibility [to intervene]” .
Last Saturday, at a meeting of 40 advisers and political bigwigs in Shenzen, neighbouring Hong Kong, organised by the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies largely agreed that Beijing had the right to intervene and resolve the crisis and that using the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to do the needful would not necessarily spell the end of the city’s autonomous status. They said that the protestors were jeopardising the ‘one country, two systems’ framework, rather than defending it. Under this, Hong Kong, though a part of the PRC, has its own political, legal and financial system.
Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam speaks during a news conference in Hong Kong, China August 5, 2019. Photo: REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon
Carrie Lam’s meeting
On the same day, nineteen city influential people and politicians met at the official residence of the Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam to suggest a way out of the stalemate. According to the South China Morning Post more than half of them recommended that Lam meet the demand for a public inquiry into the events and completely withdraw the extradition Bill that triggered the current crisis. The report suggests that Lam was hesitant to act on both issues.
But speaking before a meeting with her advisers in the Executive Council on Tuesday morning, Lam acknowledged that the current stalemate arose from the government’s refusal to accept those demands. She said this would not happen as long as there was violence in the streets. She insisted that the Hong Kong police had used minimum force against protestors.
As the Hong Kong protests have continued and gathered intensity, the possibility of a PLA intervention has grown. Speaking at a reception in the city to celebrate the 92nd anniversary of the PLA on July 31st, Major General Chen Daoxiang, the commander of the PLA garrison in the city, said that violence by the protestors would not be tolerated. He said the garrison supported the Hong Kong government’s efforts to deal with the protestors through the law.
The garrison also released a video showing PLA soldiers practising storming a street protest and shouting commands in Cantonese, the language spoken in Hong Kong, rather than the mainland.
The Chinese authorities have also been pointing to the Clause 14 of the Garrison Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the PRC which states that the government of the city “may when necessary, ask the Central People’s Government for assistance from the Hong Kong Garrison in the maintenance of public order and disaster relief.” There are some 6,000 PLA soldiers stationed in the city close to the border with the mainland.
Military vehicles parked on the grounds of the Shenzhen Bay Sports Center in Shenzhen, China. August 15, 2019. Photo: Reuters/Thomas Peter
Chinese central government must tread carefully
The Chinese central government is likely to be very careful in committing PLA forces in the city which, as one of the major financial and business centres of the world, is a cash cow for its economy. Its stock market is the fifth largest in the world by capitalisation.
Since China’s reform and opening up, Hong Kong has played a significant role as a channel of funds and technology into the mainland, accounting for 50-60% of all FDI flows. Since 1997, the Chinese economy began to get less dependent on Hong Kong, even while the latter’s prosperity became more entangled with that of the mainland.
In 2016, China’s total FDI was $133.7 billion of which 61% came through Hong Kong. In turn, the city has also played a role in China’s outward direct investment (ODI). And in 2016, of the $196.1 billion ODI, 60% was invested in Hong Kong or went to other destinations through Hong Kong. A PLA-led crackdown would lead to a major exodus of businesses, especially MNCs, along with the talent pool of finance professionals.
Hong Kong city. Credit: abdulrahman-cc/Flickr, CC BY 2.0
Hong Kong city. Credit: abdulrahman-cc/Flickr, CC BY 2.0
Given the consequences of the use of the PLA to crush the protests, the Chinese central government may not bind itself to the October 1 deadline. On the other hand, should the situation worsen, it could work along two parallel tracks. First, have Carrie Lam invoke the Emergency Regulations Ordinance which would give the chief executive in council the power to make “any regulations whatsoever which he/she may consider desirable in the public interest.” These could be used to cover issues relating to censorship, detention of protestors and trade.
Second, follow this up with the mobilisation of pro-PRC elements in Hong Kong to mount counter-protests and even take on the protestors with the help of police. Officially the Communist Party of China does not exist in Hong Kong and its operations are through the Central Liaison Office and various front outfits like the Fujian Hometown Association, Hong Kong Residents Association of Tianjin and the newly formed Great Alliance to Protect Hong Kong that held a big rally in mid-August. There are also newspapers like Ta Kung Pao always ready to attack the protestors. These could always be supplemented by volunteers from the mainland.
The Wire August 30, 2019