Training guns at China

Reports that the death toll in Wuhan may have been many, many times higher than the 2,535 revealed, will feed into the narrative demanding accountability from China on account of the Covid-19 spread.

As a Chinese diplomat in India has put it, ‘China neither created the virus nor intentionally transmitted it.’ Also, the Chinese instituted an unprecedented lockdown of an entire province and took what the diplomat said were ‘most comprehensive, rigorous and thorough measures’. True, but early action could have checked its spread dramatically. The authorities in the city were aware of the virus by around mid-December, but orders for a lockdown were only issued on January 23. Timely action was sacrificed to what the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) calls ‘social stability’, and the early whistle-blowers were punished for broadcasting information on it.

But from here to raise the demand for compensation or reparations is another thing. When it comes to reparations, maybe some others would also be on the list. In the 1960s, the US used Agent Orange, a chemical that destroyed nearly 5 million acres of forest and exposed millions of Vietnamese to its effects. And then, there is the Iraq War of 2003, based on fictitious premises, that devastated an entire nation and led to tens of thousands of deaths.

Yes, the Chinese must be held to account in a manner that will encourage them to change their systems and protocols and provide a learning experience to the rest of the world. We have yet to hear the final word on Covid-19.

Chinese culpability is bound to play out strongly in the US. As of Monday, the US led in the number of Covid-positive cases at nearly 1.5 lakh (about 2,500 deaths). The helplessness of the world’s leading military and economic power will become even more manifest in the coming weeks as the virus peaks and takes an even greater toll.

Even if the US was not in an election year, there would have been a great deal of finger-pointing going on. Given the upcoming presidential elections, it could take on a nastier edge. The Trump administration knew about the virus as of January this year, but failed to act with dispatch. Given the Trump style, he will focus the blame on everyone but himself, and China will be a big target indeed.

Whatever may have been the bitterness over the usage of the terms ‘Chinese virus’ and ‘Wuhan virus’ across the world, the most popular nomenclature has already taken root and it is ‘coronavirus’. People will not forget where it originated, but are unlikely to think beyond that.

Journalist and author Praveen Swami has brought out in a recent article in Firstpost that unknown viruses arising from the animal-human interaction lurk in half a dozen places in India. Any of them could be a candidate for reaching the stage of highly contagious human-to-human interaction. So, a little bit of humility would suggest that the world needs to focus on mitigating the physical and economic consequences of such viruses, rather than play the blame game.

But for the US and China, this is not merely about scoring debating points, but part of a more ruthless geopolitical competition. Covid-19 is merely the latest episode in a narrative that is emerging from the US, which feels it has been cheated by China. The Americans went into China as part of a legitimate and successful strategy of outflanking the erstwhile Soviet Union. Then, US scholars began to suggest that as it became more prosperous, it would, as per their modernisation theories, become more democratic. That has not happened, at least till now, instead, the CPC has been able to maintain its authoritarian hold over the people through co-option and coercion and the country has continued to grow economically and militarily in the past decades.

The competition now has two pressing aspects. One is in the realm of technology, where the US is determined to ensure its superiority. While China may take the lead in a few areas like 5G, there is nothing to indicate that the US can be bested in its overall superiority in the realm of science and technology in the next decade and more.

The other aspect is the military competition in East Asia. Since 1950, the US maintained a deployment close to China, buttressed by its alliances with South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines. Despite US complaints about being taken for a ride by its allies, nothing really has changed here, indeed, it now also has the advantage of having a friendly Vietnam as well.

The increasingly powerful Chinese military may be able to keep the US some distance from its shores, but beyond that the US remains, and will remain, the dominant power for the foreseeable future.

China is the only country today which is able to pose some kind of a challenge to the US, be it in technology or economy or diplomacy. The US seems to have reached a point of insecurity, where it views every challenge as life-threatening. It is unable or unwilling to concede any ground to a country which is a growing power and which has its own needs and aspirations.

Political change in China, which many await, is not something that can be imposed by others; it must come from within. In the meantime, the task for the US and the global community is to be able to shape the circumstances through which this change can come.

Tribune March 31, 2020

Thucydides trap: China-US rivalry has made international governance difficult – even as they fight a common threat

The US and China had just about declared truce in their trade war through a phase I deal in January when the coronavirus hit. Now, even as they fight a common threat, the ‘war’ has shifted to the realm of propaganda: China is aggressively touting its success in containing the virus, while the US seeks to name and shame Beijing on its origin.

This should have been a time for a concerted international response; instead we are witnessing national fightbacks, many of them flailing, with no sign of a concerted global response. Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump had their first phone conversation yesterday, over 10 weeks after the gravity of the situation was revealed and the conversation was general, rather than on the specifics of a concerted response using the vast S&T resources of the two nations.

The G7 meeting this week failed to come up with a customary joint statement because the US insisted on reference to the “Wuhan virus”. The G20 meeting that followed did mention the importance of world trade but in passing, and pledged $5 trillion to spur economic recovery. In the words of a former IMF economist, its statement was “long on generalities, short on specifics”. A report says that the US insistence on explicitly stating that the virus originated in Wuhan has stalled a joint declaration at the UN Security Council.

The US and China are in a Thucydides trap and the Covid-19 pandemic has worsened the situation. The geopolitical contest and the pandemic, if prolonged, could upend the world that we have known.
The two countries have moved from being trade partners and collaborators to strategic competitors, a situation that has made international governance more difficult. Their conflict is around technology, the most visible being 5G. The US is moving to restrict export of a range of “foundational technologies” with dual civil and military applications – such as biotechnology, advanced surveillance, 3D printing, artificial intelligence and robotics.

The aim is to constrain the Chinese challenge to US technological supremacy, but this could impede US innovation because of the level of interconnectedness between the two countries.

There has been a lot of talk of decoupling, but that’s a lot of hype. What we could be seeing is a derisking strategy by countries and companies who think they have become too dependent on China. The Covid crisis will add new industries like pharmaceuticals to the list. And what we may see is the building up of redundancies to make our systems more resilient.

A cooperative approach could make that process benign, a combative one will plunge us into deeper waters. The US and Europe are still struggling to meet the twin challenge of containing the virus and keeping their huge economies afloat. Beijing may have controlled the epidemic and gotten its economy going again, but the reality is that China alone cannot pull the global economic engine. With 38% of its exports destined for the US and Europe, China knows that the economic health of both regions is vital for its own well-being. In turn these regions cannot be unaware of the importance of China to their own economies.

The responses of various countries to the economic challenge of the virus have been national. The US’s $2.2 trillion stimulus will just about prevent a social welfare disaster, not revive its economy. India’s modest Rs 1.7 trillion package is unlikely to even address the social distress resulting from the outbreak. As for the G20’s $5 trillion, well, that’s all it is, a promise.

But first things first. Addressing the economic challenge of Covid-19 is important, but it is first essential to extinguish and control the virus itself.  Be it smallpox, tuberculosis, or polio, only concerted international action succeeded in checking a contagion. With a pandemic whose full course has yet to be run, and whose properties are yet to be revealed in full, cooperation across national boundaries  ought to be the order of the day, and it isn’t, yet.

Times of India March 28, 2020 

China pulls itself together

Even as the Covid-19 pandemic rages, it is also impacting and shaping wider economic and political trends. The 2008 crisis pushed China several notches higher in the global power order. The current crisis, which comes in the wake of an increasingly belligerent US-China relationship, could lead to an intensification of the strategic competition between the two countries and have similar consequences.

Both the US and China will be hit hard. The question is: Who will be damaged less, and who will have the will to apply the lessons of the experience better?

The pandemic has already led to mass casualties and economic damage to China, which has now kick-started its recovery. The situation in the US is only now developing and things could get worse before they get better. Though it had time, the US mismanaged its early response. Its political system, where authority is divided between federal, state and local governments was not able to provide the coordinated response that authoritarian and centralised China could.

The 

The Covid outbreak was centred in Wuhan and brought China’s huge industrial machine to a standstill. Global supply chains were disrupted and markets crashed as China locked down to deal with the situation. The over-centralised Chinese political system was responsible for the delays in alerting the world to the virus, resulting in its spread. But that same system also undertook an unprecedented quarantine of an entire province and, in a sense, brought the world time to cope with it. The new propaganda narrative in China is already emphasising this and the ‘victory’ of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and Xi in countering the spread of the virus.

The peak has passed in China and the epicentre of the virus is moving westwards from Iran, Italy to Spain. All of Europe, including the phlegmatic Scandinavians, are in a panic. Like Italy and Spain, the US fumbled in its initial response. Now, the pandemic is expected to accelerate and, if it follows the pattern of China, Iran and Europe, the US healthcare system could be overwhelmed at places.

There are some already forecasting recession in the US — two successive quarters of negative growth. The sudden stop of economic activity through quarantines and social distancing will come with attendant loss of jobs and income. The Trump administration reacted last week by declaring the pandemic a national emergency and the Congress has passed a sweeping coronavirus relief package.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg has reported that the Chinese economy is on its way to recovery, operating at 80 per cent of its normal capacity as of last week. Though, a deeper collapse of demand in the US could hit China once again, given that 19 per cent of Chinese exports go to the US.

Both the US and China will be hit hard, but the question is: Who will be damaged less, and who will have the will to apply the lessons of the experience better? The initial US responses have not been heartening and the Trump administration seems to be out of step with the evolving situation. The Covid outbreak has brought out the holes in the US system — the working conditions of many who do not get paid sick leave, the large number of uninsured people or the undocumented immigrants who are unable or unwilling to seek treatment, thus endangering efforts to deal with a contagious pandemic.

Conventional wisdom has it that Covid hit China’s already slowing economy, and that the CPC’s approach will be to put off further reform and focus on a short-term economic stimulus. In fact, the opposite could happen. Shocked by the outbreak, the CPC could actually be pushed to take the economic and political steps it has been dithering on for the past five years. This could mean Beijing doubling down on the economic and financial liberalisation it has undertaken since the 19th Party Congress, enforcing steps to provide a level playing field to its private sector in relation to the State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), removing barriers to the functioning of foreign firms in the country, especially those relating to transfer of technology and regulation. Having already expanded the role of the party in private businesses in the past two years, the CPC may be less leery of going down that path.

The outbreak will accelerate trends towards deglobalisation and technological decoupling between the US and China. And, indeed, to go by the Chinese experience, push the trend towards using AI, Big Data and facial recognition, as well as the use of robots in healthcare and industry. Businesses are likely to reassess the consequences of maintaining long global supply chains and look for more proximate options, as well as build a degree of redundancy in sourcing their critical supplies.

Meanwhile, even as the outbreak still rages across the country, Beijing has ensured that it continues to look outward even as Europe and the US have turned inward. China has already seized the initiative in public health leadership by sending aid to the affected countries. Besides Iran and Iraq, China sent experts, ventilators and masks to Italy and offered to provide help to all those that needed it. Last Thursday, Xi spoke to the UN Secretary General, calling for the international community to take action to fight the epidemic. China has been holding teleconferences with experts and officials from Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Turkmenistan, Italy and several Pacific Island countries. In the coming days it is likely to intensify this effort, which, not surprisingly, follow the tracks of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Tribune March 17, 2020

The high road to growth

Trade equals prosperity, this is the simple lesson delivered at the inaugural Asia Economic Dialogue in Pune over the last weekend whose theme was Asia and the Emerging International Trading System. The conference, run in partnership between the Ministry of External Affairs and the Pune International Centre, is an effort by the government to go beyond the narrow confines of the New Delhi on such issues.

The tone was set by Kishore Mahbubani, an academic and former diplomat from Singapore, who bluntly argued in his special address that not only was trade a major factor in enriching the world, but was also responsible for the large-scale elimination of poverty that we have seen in the opening decades of this century. Take the experience of the two Koreas. The South Korean GDP was twice that of the North in 1980, but by 2000, it had become 20 times larger. The GDP of India and China was roughly the same in 1980, but in 2018, the latter was five times higher, even though India actually had more trade than China in 1980.

Thailand had never been a colony, had not experienced war and its GDP in 1990 was 14 times that of Vietnam, which had known nothing but war for the previous half century. But by 2018, it had used trade to reach a point where the Thai GDP was only twice as large as that of Vietnam. Trade was not just about trade, but a matrix of economics, poverty, geopolitics, peace and cultural confidence.

Mahbubani’s bottom line was that India with its huge pool of managerial talent (more visible abroad than in India), its strong government and its geopolitical sweet spot vis-à-vis the US, was well positioned to move fast on the growth track.

But things are no longer simple. Unlike China, which got a huge free ride with the US, India has come into the limelight just when the US President believes that trade is bad, and trade deficits worse. The record shows that far from giving concessions to this huge and poor country, the US is trying to extract them from India.

Other presentations at the meeting brought out that while the opportunities existed, there were many factors that were hindering India’s ability to exploit the situation. As a senior government economic adviser pointed out, the issue was not just the US, but internal issues that were pulling India back. India’s share of manufacturing had been flat for several years. India needed to do things in terms of better infrastructure, roads, taxation regime, availability of credit and so on to be able to exploit its sweet spot.

India’s poor performance was underscored by the fact that of the $300 billion plus of apparel export trade, India’s share is just $15 billion as compared to $36 billion from Bangladesh. Another expert pointed out that in terms of economic growth and quality of life, Bangladesh was doing far better than India at present.

In his presentation, former World Bank economist Jayanta Roy pointed out that India has always been the hesitant globaliser in pursuing trade reform. To emerge as a global hub, India needs to make its industry competitive, bring down tariffs, and build upon steps it has taken on the ease of doing business and improving its logistics performance. It needed to move away from protectionism and pursue the reform of multilateralism.

The main thrust of his remarks was on the importance of getting small and medium enterprises to participate in global value chains, something that India had failed to do because of its poor understanding of how these work. In fact, the key to increasing India’s stagnant manufacturing exports is to integrate manufacturing into global production networks.

As it is, things are getting complicated here, with the West seeking to close the door for developing countries that want to replicate the success of China. The US steps, which have led to the appellate body of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) coming to a grinding halt, are only part of a series of measures aimed at not only containing China, but also countries like India, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa.

There does not seem to be much of a meeting ground between the developed and developing countries. The latter want to preserve and refine the core values of the WTO that led to huge prosperity across the world. Among these are the special and differential treatment of developing countries. Among the noted specialists who spoke were trade consultant Harsha V Singh, JS Deepak, India’s ambassador to the WTO, and his Chinese counterpart Zhang Xiangchen.

As the other sessions of the conference indicated, there is no shortage of ideas on ways India can move ahead and, indeed, ‘pole-vault’ into the ranks of leading nations. But the bottom line remains that India cannot escape from the systematic challenge of large-scale reforms in investment policy, labour, tariff and non-tariff measures, connectivity, and above all, on the need to promote political stability.

Tribune March 3, 2020

Shadow of 1984: Delhi riots show what can happen when there is political interference with police

Though not part of his job description, NSA Ajit Doval pitched in and was able to provide the leadership to restore some calm in areas of Delhi shaken by communal violence that has killed some 42 people so far. As an old police hand, he must have had much to say to the Delhi Police (DP) that had merely stood by as parts of the capital saw arson and mayhem. 

But all he said publicly was there was need to correct the impression of “their capabilities and intentions” in the minds of the people. A high court judge was more blunt when on Wednesday he made DP officers watch four videos of BJP leaders making provocative hate speeches. The net result, however, was that the judge was transferred out and the new bench gave the police a month to act on the issue. It is actions like these that promote the sense of impunity with which the DP has been acting, in the face of blatant criminal actions and violations of the law.

It’s been nearly two months since masked people armed with sticks, rods and acid attacked students in the Jawaharlal Nehru University campus. Almost everyone knows who the attackers are, as does the DP, but so far not a single person has been arrested. And then there is the Jamia Millia Islamia attack where students, some in a library, were set upon and assaulted by the police – an act, like many others, captured in stark videos. It’s not just about politics. Earlier this month, the police stood by when a mob entered Gargi College and sexually harassed and assaulted the women students. In another incident Jamia women complained that they were kicked in their private parts by police personnel.

But the rot in the Delhi Police is not new. In 1984 this writer saw its “qualities” first-hand. Sikhs had been massacred in the city without the police lifting a finger. Near a police station in Trilokpuri an army captain pointed to a police inspector standing by sheepishly and said, “This man had himself locked inside the police station so that we could not find anyone to guide us in this congested area.” The police abdicated its duties in 1984, they did the same in 2020. DP is not unique in its ways. Across the country police forces have a horrible reputation. DP’s cousins in Uttar Pradesh would give them a run for their money when it comes to both impunity and brutality. The way they handled the recent anti-CAA agitation is testimony to this. The police behave the way they do because they serve the cynical purposes of governing politicians, whether it is in harassing the opposition, or being lenient with their own supporters. They sometimes execute people without a trial, or entangle people in civil or criminal cases without compunction.

Political interference is the first and most important part of the problem. The second are the terms and conditions of service, though here, the DP is relatively better off than their counterparts in other states. The third problem is that the Indian police force is simply too small to deal with the challenges they confront. 25% of the DP is involved in VIP duties. Not surprisingly, they are grossly over-worked and underpaid. The fourth is training. Their idea of crowd control is either do nothing, or simply bash up every one in sight. On occasion, when protesters throw stones, throw them back at them. Urban areas are riot prone and require a specially trained and equipped force to deal with them. But all these will be to no avail if the police lack the fifth and most important ingredient – a moral compass. All of us need one, but surely for those who are said to be guardians of the law it should be mandatory.

Times of India February 29, 2020

NSA Doval Taking Stock of Delhi Shows Govt’s Panic, Shah’s Failure

Just what is the National Security Adviser Ajit Doval doing reprising his role as a police officer? Ajit Doval toured the riot-hit areas of Delhi on Tuesday night, 25 February, and Wednesday afternoon, 26 February, met police officers and provided them guidance in dealing with the situation, interacted with the local residents and provided them the reassurance that there will be no recurrence of what they had undergone in the past few days.

In the remarks reported by the media after his Tuesday night visit, Doval said that there were enough forces on the ground and there was no need to fear the situation. He acknowledged that the “capabilities and intentions” of the Delhi Police are being doubted by people and that this was an issue that needed to be addressed.

On Wednesday evening he was back in the localities offering words of reassurance to the shaken local communities, and staking his personal credibility on the continuance of peace.

This time, though, he made it a point to say that the home minister had made all the arrangements and the police were doing their job. Despite instances of the Delhi Police looking on as the mobs went on a rampage, the police have yet again been assigned to take charge by a man who had been a policeman a long time ago.

Bringing In Doval Shows Government’s Panic

Doval had begun his career as a police officer in the Kerala cadre, but soon opted to join the Intelligence Bureau where he spent most of his career and where he had a formidable record as an operations officer.

As NSA, Doval has a huge set of responsibilities ranging from advising the PM on National Security, to chairing the Executive Council of the Nuclear Command Authority, the Special Policy Group of the NSC, chairing the Defence Policy Group, as well as supervising the external intelligence agencies and being in-charge of relations with China as the PM’s Special Representative.

Having him check the policing arrangements of a some segments of riot-hit Delhi is clearly an add-on triggered by the government’s panic at the developments. This is also a mark of the lack of trust of the legal chain of command that spectacularly failed to do its job – the police commissioner, the lieutenant governor who is the nominal head of the administration, and the Union home minister who is in-charge of the police.

On Tuesday, as soon as he returned from Ahmedabad, Union Home Minister Amit Shah presided over several meetings to deal with the issue of the violence that had hit the capital city. But by evening, Doval had taken charge.

It’s one thing to be made responsible, and quite another to rush to the frontlines.  Generals do not usually go to the battle front. Even though he had escort, he was after all going to a place where bullets had been flying the other day, wading into conversing with locals in situations where it is not easy to protect someone. But Doval, ever the operations man has not hesitated in front of danger as has been evident through his career.

But the question still needs to be asked of the government which had to rely on him for events which its own foolish policies have created.

Also Read : ‘If Media is Quiet About Attacks, Terrorism Will End’: NSA Doval 

When it Comes to Security, There’s No Detail Doval Won’t Track

Recall that Doval also had to pitch in on Kashmir. How much of a role Doval had in the government’s decision to take away Jammu & Kashmir’s statehood and derogate Article 370 is not clear. In any case the state’s status was not in his charter of duties. Yet, following the decision, he spent 11 days in the state to ensure that things went smoothly. In the process, he talked to locals, addressed J&K Police personnel and separately the CRPF and the army to keep up their morale.

Doval has  been an unorthodox NSA, not hesitating to tread on toes and filling a vacuum when confronted with a situation. When it comes to security there is no detail that he will not track. Some years ago, there was a spectacular bank robbery in Gohana, Haryana, when robbers dug a 84-foot tunnel to break into the locker vault of a bank. According to a source, one of the queries seeking details of the modus operandi of the robbers came from Doval’s office.

Likewise, when in October 2014, a bomb blast took place in Burdwan, Doval personally landed up in Kolkata to discuss the matter with Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and visit the site of the blasts for an inspection. He was clearly worried about the threat of the Jamiat-ul-Mujaihdeen Bangladesh (JMB) to West Bengal, which fortunately, did not materialise.

One may wonder that with his plate more than full, how Doval gets the time to do the fire-fighting for the government as well. The answer probably lies in his staff work.

Unlike previous NSAs who had one or two, Doval has as many as four principal aides looking at issues relating to intelligence, foreign affairs, crime-terrorism nexus and military affairs. There are also a slew of other advisers assisting him.

In addition, he has expanded the National Security Council apparatus to occupy the entire Sardar Patel Bhavan building where it used to earlier have about two or five floors worth of space. Further, the budget of the NSCS has also gone up sharply.