Though it has been more than six decades since we attained
Independence, securing our nation and its inhabitants remains an
overwhelming concern. Security threats, external and internal, have
dogged us through our history, and even though we are stronger than we
have ever been - indeed a nuclear weapons power - the sense of
insecurity remains.
It is not surprising, therefore, that the Narendra Modi
government has made it clear that when it comes to security, terrorism
remains a major concern. Rejecting Pakistan's criticism of Modi's "proxy
war" remarks during his visit to Ladakh, the Indian official spokesman
said last Thursday that terrorism was not only a "core concern in our
relations with Pakistan" but that it remained a "real and present
danger" to the country.
Terrorism
We may not have had a
major terror attack since 2008, but terrorism remains an issue that
worries people. This was brought out by a Pew Global Attitudes poll
earlier this year which revealed that while people were concerned about
economic, political and corruption issues, nearly nine in 10
respondents, some 88 per cent, said that terrorism was a "very big
problem," and that Pakistan (47 per cent) and the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba (20
per cent) posed the greatest threat to India. Nineteen per cent said the
Maoists were a threat, but just six per cent chose China.
The low
figure for China is a measure of the Indian complacency about not just
the rise of China, but the growth of its military capabilities - some of
which are aimed at us. Already Chinese influence is lapping on our
shores in the form of Chinese trade, and aid in South Asia matching or
exceeding that of India. In 2012, India's trade with SAARC countries was
some $17 billion, and Chinese totalled $25 billion.
There is
little India can do in the short term to prevent the growth of Chinese
influence in its geopolitical backyard. But the Modi government has
shown itself to be clearly aware of the dimensions of the challenge. Its
initial measures will, hopefully, clear the political detritus that has
accumulated over the years and set the stage for a phase of more
rewarding and friendly ties in the coming years which will coincide with
the revival of high, sustained Indian economic growth.
What is
more worrisome, and somehow largely ignored, is the growth of Chinese
military power and the consequences it can have for us. In the last 10
years or so, India has become more aware of this and activated new
airfields, fast-tracked border defence construction and raised new
military formations on the border with Tibet and Xinjiang. Slowly, but
surely, India's strategic deterrent capability with regard to China is
shaping up through the Agni V long-range missile and the Arihant nuclear
propelled ballistic missile submarine.
Nuclear forces
But
these efforts pale into insignificance when placed against the massive
and comprehensive modernisation being undertaken by China of both its
conventional and nuclear forces. In this build up, it is benchmarking
itself against the United States. But it is very obvious that the
capabilities that the Chinese are building up for a possible conflict
with the US, will have negative consequences for India.
Observers
often tend to focus on specific Chinese achievements such as the J-20
fifth generation fighter, or the anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) or
WU14 hypersonic vehicle. But the reality is that the Chinese
developments have been comprehensive. In the naval area, for example it
is not just the ASBM or the aircraft carrier, but cruise missiles, UAVs,
submarines, destroyers, amphibious ships, patrol craft and so on.
More
disturbing are reports on the Chinese strategic force modernisation. A
report in the South China Morning Post in early August, sourced from
official documents, indicated that China planned to increase its nuclear
and conventional warheads held by its strategic force, known as the 2nd
Artillery Command.
No first use
Most estimates of the
Chinese nuclear arsenal place it at a "bare minimum" level of around
200-250 warheads, with land-based missiles as the primary delivery
system. However, over the years, the Chinese have been modernising the
landbased missiles, as well as developing their submarine-based arsenal.
As of now their three Type 094 submarines do not have operational
missiles, but these are being developed. An accidental release of
information by a Chinese environment outfit has confirmed the reports of
the existence of the DF-41 ICBM with sufficient range to target most of
the United States from China. US intelligence sources say that these
missiles could also have multiple warheads.
Like some Indians, the
Chinese are also worried that their 'No First Use' pledge can leave
them vulnerable to a surprise first strike. Chinese worries have centred
around what the US calls "Prompt Global Strike" technologies -
hypersonic vehicles, terminally guided ballistic missiles, reusable
unmanned spacecraft and scramjets. The US says these are for use with
conventional warheads, but they can also be armed with nuclear warheads,
too, and so, the precision and speed of the strikes could have
devastating consequences for global deterrence stability. To counter
this, the Chinese have carried out ballistic missile defence tests in
2010, 2013 and in July this year. And in January this China surprised
the world with its own test of the WU 14 hypersonic boost glide vehicle
and experts say that they are just years behind the Americans in this
area.
Such systems have huge implications for India because if
China was concerned about US use of such technologies for a first
strike, so does India have to worry that China, which is developing
similar technologies, can pursue similar goals.
These are not
technologies you can acquire off the shelf - they require an enormous
amount of R&D effort, of the kind simply not visible in India. What
is remarkable, however, is that no one seems to be even talking about
these issues, leave alone doing something about them.
Mail Today August 18, 2014
Sunday, October 26, 2014
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