Since
1991, India has pursued a policy of engaging Pakistan, regardless of what the
latter has thrown at us - bombs, terror assaults, fedayeen. This has meant an
effort to promote dialogue to resolve outstanding issues, and develop ties with
the civilian governments, as against the military. However, two decades later,
it seems that this is not working.
If
anything, the deep state dominated by the military retains its iron grip on the
system and the civilian system remains unable to get its act together. The
‘Lion of Punjab’ Nawaz Sharif is looking like a lamb, while his rival Bilawal
Bhutto has become the butt of jokes, and as for Imran Khan, the less said the
better.
There were expectations that Nawaz Sharif could keep the army in check and initiate an opening up to India. But a year later, he is a spent force and has been successfully boxed in by the army. Pic/Getty Images
Maybe the
time has come to change course — not by reaching out to the military or taking
recourse to tit-for-tat covert war. But by encouraging the peaceful breakup of
Pakistan. Across the Islamic world, boundaries and states created by colonial
powers are breaking down, and there is no reason to assume that Pakistan ought
to be an exception. Using military means or a covert war would be
counterproductive, but there could be a way out by persuading the international
community that this is the best course, and by providing moral and political
support to those who advocate separatism in Pakistan.
No doubt
there will be Pakistanis who will claim that this is exactly what they always
feared and that India has never reconciled to the creation of Pakistan. But we
most certainly do not advocate the annexation of Pakistani territory, not even
of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.
The
Bangladesh war is another issue. But by now, there is enough evidence to show
that the responsibility for the loss of East Pakistan rests firmly with
Islamabad. All that India did was play the role of a
midwife who actually prevented greater bloodshed and horrors. Had India been the factor, Pakistan could have reunited in the 1977-1984 period when anti-Indian governments held sway.
midwife who actually prevented greater bloodshed and horrors. Had India been the factor, Pakistan could have reunited in the 1977-1984 period when anti-Indian governments held sway.
Actually
from the outset, it is Pakistan which has promoted violence to obtain the
breakup of India. In the 1950s and 1960s, the ISI used its location in East
Pakistan to aid the Naga and Mizo insurgencies. In the 1980s, after
re-establishing themselves in Bangladesh, they became the principal backers of
ULFA and continued giving support to whichever dissident group they could find
in the North-east.
Then,
when opportunity arose in the west, the ISI jumped into the fray in Punjab in
the early 1980s and, few years later, into Jammu & Kashmir. Simultaneously,
they also began promoting terrorist attacks across the country. There were two
aims in mind. First, the breaking away of two important states of the Indian
union. Second, encouraging communal violence with the view of developing an
unbridgeable communal divide in the country.
Most
Indians, even now, believe that it is in their interest to have a stable and
united Pakistan on their western borders, notwithstanding the hostility they
have faced in recent decades. This is not because of any altruism, but a
perceived national interest in not having a failed nuclear state on our
borders. However, without any particular Indian encouragement or assistance,
Pakistan is trending towards collapse and chaos.
There is
no dearth of fault lines in Pakistan. The primary ones are ethnic, pitting the
dominant Punjabis against the Baloch and the Sindhis, with the Mohajirs as a
category of their own. The newer one shaping up is one which pits the
Pakhtun-dominated Taliban against Pakistan. Then there are sectarian lines,
primarily dividing the Sunni and the Shia. But the really complex one divides
its dominant military from its civilian establishment.
The idea
of Pakistan breaking up has been around for a while. There are two impulses for
this. First is from within, where ethnic groups such as the Pakhtuns, Baloch
and Sindhis want out of the Punjab-dominated system. The second is from the
point of view of the global community, for whom Pakistan has proved to be a
menace as an exporter of terrorism and a proliferator of nuclear weapons. But
so far the idea has been confined to think tanks and some individuals. Smaller
units will certainly reduce the megalomania of the generals who have
exaggerated notions of Pakistan’s standing in the comity of nations by virtue
of its nuclear weapons and ability to give pain to its neighbours, namely India
and Afghanistan.
The one
thing that can save Pakistan is the normalisation of ties with India and
opening up to the larger economy to its east. But there are equally powerful
forces that have prevented this from happening and they show no signs of
weakening.
There
were expectations that Nawaz Sharif was the leader who could keep the army in
check and initiate an opening up to India. However, a year later we find that
Nawaz is a spent force and has been successfully boxed in by the army. No one
is clear as to where things go from here.
So far,
India has displayed little or no inclination from getting involved in
Pakistan’s internal issues, Islamabad’s claims to the contrary notwithstanding
. But now our own security demands that we begin thinking about the
unthinkable, and consulting with like-minded countries on the issue.
A
nuclear-armed Pakistan needs to be handled carefully and there is little scope
for adventurism here.
As noted,
we are not advocating a violent breakup, but a velvet event of the kind that
led to the emergence of the Czech and Slovak Republics.
Mid Day
October 28, 2014
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