In the past month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sketched out the broad contours of his foreign and security policy vision, culminating in his official visit to the United States.
For most Americans, this would have been yet another visit
by an important global leader. But for most Indians, both in the US and
back home, there has been a palpable sense of excitement about it.
This is because of the understanding that Modi is the first
prime minister since 1989, to have a majority of his own in the Lok
Sabha. Most of us have lived with the frustration of coalition
governments which were not able to take the decisive decisions that this
country needs to get its act together to act as the economic and
regional power that it already is.
In foreign policy, as in domestic, Modi has raised
expectations sky high. As of now, however, what we are seeing in both
domestic and foreign policy are broad brush-strokes, not the finished
picture.
Consolidation
In Modi’s case, this has worked at two levels. First is the
inspirational and global, delivered through public speeches such as
those at the UN or Madison Square Garden.
The UN speech spelt out his world view: the importance of
being a good neighbour, peace with Pakistan, the dangers of terrorism,
the need for accommodative trading systems and a multipolar world order.
The second level is the behind-the-scenes realism which has
been manifested by the stance India has taken with its interlocutors,
whether they be Pakistan, China, US or Japan on issues ranging from the
peace talks, border, climate change, and nuclear agreements. But what we
are seeing are only the opening gambits of a longer game.
Foreign policy is a bit different from domestic. Within a
country, you can influence, dictate or direct an outcome with relative
ease. But in foreign affairs, it is not easy to shape things in the way
you want. So far Modi has been careful in articulating his foreign and
security policy. His primary political aim is consolidation.
As an outlier, he needs to ensure that he is now the BJP’s
mainstream. He may be the “hriday samrat” (emperor of minds) of the
public, but within the party he still faces opposition and resistance.
In these circumstances, he will make haste slowly and not
undertake policy measures – foreign or domestic – which could give his
enemies a handle. His initial strategy, much like that of Narasimha Rao,
will be change through stealth. A lot of that is already visible in
economic policy and administration.
In foreign and security policy, from the outset he has hewn
close to the Vapayee mold. He may have been tough with Pakistan, but he
has ignored fire-eaters who want him to do more. He has refused calls
to change the nuclear doctrine, invoking Vajpayee. And, if Atalji termed
the US as its “natural ally”, Modi modified it only slightly to term it
as a “natural global partner.”
Articulation
But at some point, he needs to prepare for the day when his interlocutors will ask: What do you bring to the table ?
In another context, in August, President Obama put it
bluntly when he commented that China has been a free rider on the
international system for the last thirty years or so. The question also
needs to be posed to India which often talks of “non-alignment” and
“strategic autonomy.”
Is India also free-riding on the world system where the US
provides security to or oil sea lanes, or takes on the Islamist
challenge in the Middle-East?
While India was poor and weak, we could always look away at
some of these issues, but if India’s economy grows in the next decade,
we may have to provide some answers to the questions, in our own self
interest. So, beyond the broad geopolitical formulations, what many of
these countries and China, are wondering, is: What is the role India
intends to play in the coming decade – which politically is likely to be
the Modi decade?
Actually they wonder what role is India capable of playing.
Capability here, is a combination of capacity – military and economic –
as well as intentions articulated through policy.
Potential
As of now, all that India brings to the table is its
potential. In the present circumstances, this is a big plus. The global
balance of power is inexorably shifting in favour of China. Under
pressure in the East and South China Sea, the US and its allies want
India to rise so as to counter some of China’s pull.
Given the asymmetry between Indian and Chinese military and
economic power, India cannot do this by itself, but in combination with
others it can. So Modi needs to unpack India’s new foreign and security
policies in a world where the US is becoming more selective about its
global role, while China is feeling its way around to see how it can
shape regional and global policy using its still growing economic and
military clout.
Modi is right to emphasise the fact that our destiny will
be our neighbourhood, but it also lies in the reshaping and reform of
our economic and national security structures to keep pace with what we
hope will be a burgeoning economy. Given the ground realities – where
China’s power exceeds ours by orders of magnitude – we need allies. That
is where relationships with the US, Japan, ASEAN and Australia come in.
Mail Today September 30, 2014
Mail Today September 30, 2014
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