The
decision to invite US President Barack Obama to be the chief guest at the 66th
Republic Day marks out in the clearest terms Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
strategic outlook. Having personally had to deal with the Chumur episode during
the visit of Chinese president Xi Jinping in September, Modi is familiar with
just how the assertive leader of China is seeking to redraw the geopolitical
landscape of Asia.
In the
past year, we have seen Beijing make inroads into Sri Lanka and witnessed our
old ally Russia drifting into the Chinese camp. We have also seen the PLA
Navy’s forays into the Indian Ocean region which are barely concealed by the
mask of anti-piracy operations.
India’s Prime Minister Modi expressed concern to China’s visiting President Xi Jinping on September 18 about “incidents” on the two countries’ disputed border, as a stand-off between troops at the frontier had eclipsed key talks.
This is
not a new development, but has intensified since 2010 as Xi jockeyed for power
in Beijing. But now backed by the modernised PLA and the huge cash reserves
accumulated by the economy, China is seeking to expand its economic and
political universe.
In the
past months, China has set out its ambitions through the establishment of the
New Development or BRICS Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and
committing more than $40 billion to create transportation linkages under the
aegis of its Silk Route initiative. Speaking at the BRICS CEO’s meeting,
earlier in November, Xi’s message to the world was that in the next five years
China would import goods worth $10 trillion, send outward direct investments
worth $1.2 trillion, and also send out 500 million tourists.
All this
was part of a more ambitious scheme for a Free Trade Area Asia Pacific (FTAAP)
which China got the 21-member APEC to endorse. Economists say that the FTAAP
could provide a substantial boost to world trade as compared to the two
regional trade pacts that are presently under prolonged negotiation the Trans
Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Economic Cooperation Partnership
(RCEP).
What we
are witnessing is the third surge of the Chinese economy, one aimed at even
closer integration of the Asian economies, with much clearer Chinese
leadership. In a range of area China seeks to move from being a low-cost
manufacturer to a producer of Chinese-designed and made goods.
The other
leg of this advance is political. China insists in asserting its maritime
claims in Asia, even while seeking to draw it into a close economic embrace.
However, in human affairs, it is well known that national pride is often a
greater concern than a desire for economic benefit. As a result, many Asian
countries are bandwagoning with the United States in its military “rebalance”
to the region.
In the
face off between China and the US, we see features of competition and
cooperation. This was manifested by the FTAAP, as well as three important
bilateral agreements signed in Beijing between the US and China at the
sidelines of the APEC summit. The first was a bilateral agreement on climate
change which could have the effect of driving the negotiations for a global
climate deal. The two other military agreements that are still under
negotiations that seek to manage their military competition.
But the
big Chinese achievement which also played itself out on the sidelines of the
APEC summit was the four-point agreement between China and Japan that enabled
the Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe to have a short, but significant summit.
In the
agreement, Japan accepted the need for “facing history squarely and looking
forward to the future” short-hand for its horrific wartime role in China.
Further, it acknowledged that the two parties “had different views” about the
issue of the Senkaku/Diayou islands. Japan may not quite have accepted that
there is a dispute over the status of the islands, but it has come close to it.
What do
all these developments mean for India ? First, after a period of rising
tensions, countries like the US and Japan are seeking to reset their ties with
a rising China. Even while standing up to China, their approach seeks to
accommodate it as well. All three are densely connected with each other through
trade and economic ties and are aware of the consequences of a breakdown.
Second,
China is benchmarking itself against the United States. While its “new type of
great power relations” seeks a non-confrontational and cooperative relationship
with the US, it is bent on getting the US to accept it as an equal stake-holder
in the Asia Pacific; in future, of course, it may seek to supplant it.
India’s
best course is the one that Prime Minister Modi is setting. This seeks to
position India as a “swing state”. On one hand, India has joined the New
Development Bank, the AIIB and resisted American-led efforts to condemn Russia
over Ukraine. On the other, it is actively wooing the US and its allies, Japan
and Australia, in the Asia Pacific region.
This is
also a prudent course, both the US and Japan, which have much denser relations
with China are adjusting to the rise of China in a similar way competition and
cooperation there is no reason why New Delhi should not. Yet, at a broad level,
in the area of trade, finance, maritime security, non-proliferation and human
rights, India remains broadly aligned with the western countries.
India has
some sympathy with China’s demand for a more equitable world order. But is also
aware that Beijing, in turn, is not particular sympathetic to India’s demand
for a membership in bodies like the Nuclear Suppliers Group or the UN Security
Council. India remains deeply distrustful of Beijing because of the Sino-Indian
border dispute, its relationship with Pakistan and its competitive efforts to
displace India in its own backyard, the South Asian region and its new
activities in the Indian Ocean region.
Mid Day
November 25, 2014
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