For the past week, observers of
China have been expecting Beijing to announce a series of reforms to
drastically restructure and reshape the People’s Liberation Army. The step was
expected to follow the September 3 announcement during the massive military
parade in Beijing that the force would cut 3,00,000 personnel and bring its
force down to 2 million.
So far this has not happened, but it
is a question of when, rather than if. Beijing’s imperatives for reform are obvious
— if it wants to cope with an adversary like the US, it needs to change its
orthodox, land-oriented military into a flexible and agile force which can be
used on to defend the country’s borders, but also for missions afar.
According to the Chinese media and
commentators, the major restructuring would be from top to bottom. At the very
top, the four key departments — general staff, general political, general
logistics and general armaments — would be reorganised into the general
political, logistics and armaments departments which would now report to the
general staff department, which would, in turn, be supervised by the
all-powerful Central Military Commission which is chaired by President Xi
Jinping. A separate reporting line would, for the first time, have the new
general staff department report to the Ministry of Defence as well.
The current division of the PLA into
seven military regions, as well as the Air Force and the Navy would give way to
four integrated military regions — the south-west, south-east, north-east and
north-west strategic zones. The size of the Army and Air Force would be
drastically reduced and that of the Navy marginally. There would be a new
50,000 strong space force and all this is not counting the 2nd Artillery which
handles China’s nuclear and conventional missile forces. According to one
estimate, the eventual goal could well be a PLA that would be just about a
million strong, in addition to having another million strong paramilitary and
internal security troops. So, in terms of the PLA army, navy and air force
components, it would compare with the 1.3-million-strong US forces.
The Chinese now accept that large
numbers are a liability for the modern military because they consume vast
resources in maintaining and paying them. Smaller, highly mobile and technologically
capable forces are the order of the day.
Xi has already taken the first steps
in reform by placing key personnel in important positions of authority in the
PLA. More important, he has initiated a massive crackdown on corruption in the
force where positions were sold to the highest bidder. Two former Vice-Chairmen
of the CMC — Xu Caihou and Guo Boxiong — have been arrested, along with scores
of senior officers, for corruption.
In his speeches, Xi has emphasised
the need for the military to remain under the command of the party, as well as
enhance its professional skills through hard and realistic training. “We must
ensure that our troops are ready when called upon, that they are fully capable
of fighting, and that they must win every war” is a theme he has repeated in
many speeches.
Soon after taking over, in December
2012, the CMC passed its “Ten Regulations on Improving the Work Style of the
PLA” which formally banned liquor in PLA functions, forbade the holding of big
banquets and called on the PLA brass to adopt a simple style in their
inspection tours. Subsequently, in April 2013, new instructions were issued
ordering the PLA and People’s Armed Police generals and senior officers to
spend two weeks in the frontline as enlisted soldiers every third or fourth
year, depending on their rank.
The theme of reform came out through
the decisions of the Third Plenum in 2013 as well. The Plenum communique noted
that the Communist Party would put in whatever resources that were required to
create a modern military, but in turn the military leadership were urged to
enhance their innovation capacity and improve their military and professional
skills and training and develop a war-winning force.
From that time onwards, talk of
drastic military reform has swirled around Beijing. Now, after the spectacular
military parade of September 3, the first ever to deal with the World War II
victory, the chatter has become more insistent.
All this has implications for India
which we can ignore at our own peril. Efforts at reforming and restructuring
our military remain stuck. Instead of reducing our manpower, we have been
steadily increasing it. The current five-year plan, for example, caters for an
80,000-increase. Along with unreformed recruitment and pension procedures, we
will end up spending more money in pay, allowances and pensions, than
modernising the forces to cope with the rapid technological advances taking
place. There were expectations that the current government would take up the
task, but it seems to be more focused on acquisitions than the battle-winning
issues of restructuring our World War II era armed forces, shaping innovative
doctrines for their use, and equipping them to prevail in a high-tech
battlefield environment. In any system, communist or democratic, this reform
can only be done through political direction. Unfortunately for us, this
democracy, at least, seems to be losing out in this contest.
Mid Day September 15, 2015
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