The Paris attack has focused the attention of the world on the Daesh.
Earlier,
the impact of the outfit, also known as the Islamic State or the ISIS,
was confined to the geographical region it controls - eastern Syria and
northern Iraq. Now it seems to be everywhere.
Every
day Indian newspapers are giving us details of the organisation’s
alleged Indian adherents and our intelligence agencies, through deep
background briefings, warn darkly about the IS threat.
Focus
Just
why Daesh decided to change its focus from the “near enemy” - Syrian
and Iraqi forces, the Kurdish and Iranian militias - for the “far enemy”
is difficult to determine. Perhaps Paris, as well as the Russian
airliner, were targets of opportunity.
However, as
Bernard Haykel pointed out in a recent article, it has to do with the
adverse ground situation in Syria and Iraq where the Daesh has lost
ground, and the punishment it is receiving from the aerial bombardment.
It now faces a hardening of the Turkish stand since the bombing of the
Opposition rally in Ankara in October, resulting in a choking of foreign
recruits.
This
should not lead to any slackening of effort to destroy this monstrosity
- a medieval state functioning in the 21st century.
There
are four steps that need to be taken to that end. First, containing the
ISIS in the badlands of Syria and Iraq. Invading these areas would be
counter-productive. Daesh would actually welcome a western attack
because as per their theology, the end of days battle will begin from
Dabiq and will actually see the “crusaders” victorious in the beginning,
followed by their final destruction.
Using
Shia on non-Sunni forces would harden the resistance in the
Sunni-dominated ISIS areas. Instead, a tight cordon sanitaire should be
maintained by the Kurds, Iranian, Syrian and Iraqi forces aided by
western surveillance systems.
The
second effort needs to be made to choke the ISIS finances. It is well
known that even now oil continues to be smuggled out of areas under ISIS
control. Obviously some influential parties are involved in this.
Actually
it was only last week that for the first time US warplanes attacked an
oil convoy coming out of the ISIS area, this was followed by attacks by
the Russian Air Force as well. The question to be asked is why this was
not done earlier, since these convoys are several kilometres
long. However, indiscriminate bombing should be avoided because it will
kill non-combatants.
The
big issue to be thrashed out here is the future of Bashar al Assad, as
well as the attitude of countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar,
which have backed rebels against the Syrian regime. The Americans remain
insistent on his removal, but so far, their efforts have led to the
strengthening of ISIS, rather than weakening it.
Complex
The
third is a more complex, longer-term task, though it does not brook
much delay. This is to undermine the Daesh’s ideological appeal. This
appeal arises from its claim that life in the Caliphate is lived as it
was in the time of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH).
The
enslavement of non-believers, beheading of defeated enemies, and other
such medieval measures are indeed mentioned in the Muslim holy book
which is considered as the word of God, but which was written up in the
medieval times.
The
Old Testament of the Christians and the holy books of the Jews, too,
say that God’s law demands death for, say, cursing your parents,
pre-marital sex, and adultery. Slaughtering enemies and massacring the
defeated is also sanctioned by divine law. But the practice of the
application of the scriptures has changed, and in Christian lands no one
seriously argues that practices which may have been the norm in
Biblical times should be reinstituted today.
Most
Muslims, too, do not believe that it is a good idea to enslave
non-believers or to stone adulterers. But many remain in the thrall of
preachers who say that “innovation” or bidaa is the path to apostasy,
which itself is punishable by death.
In such circumstances, reformation or modernisation of the message of the Quran becomes moot.
But
clearly this is something that only the Muslims can work out. The one
positive outcome of the Daesh literalism is that it is compelling
Muslims to think and debate these issues.
Traction
As
for India, the good news remains that the ISIS phenomenon has very
little traction here. If a couple of people have been in ISIS-related
chatrooms or have been trying to travel to Syria, it means little.
As
of now Indian Muslims have their feet on the ground and show no signs
of being attracted to the Daesh ideology. However, we should not lower
our guard, because as the Paris incident has shown, that with its back
to the wall, the Daesh is striking out wherever it can.
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