Foreign
Secretary S Jaishankar’s visit to Beijing last week indicates that New
Delhi is undertaking direct diplomacy to obtain China’s support for
India’s membership into the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
This is as it should be. It was foolish and futile to try and somehow shame China into supporting the Indian cause.
Actually, the first round of diplomacy began with President Pranab Mukherjee’s visit to Beijing last month.
Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar (right)
was in Beijing to undertake direct diplomacy with China, in a bid to
get support for India’s membership into the Nuclear Suppliers Group
What
is not widely known is that the Foreign Secretary, who was accompanying
the President, took the opportunity to engage the Chinese foreign
minister Wang Yi in a one-on-one meeting.
What
transpired in either meeting will not be known, but the success or
failure of the effort will soon become evident in the forthcoming NSG
meeting in Seoul.
Trade
Suffice to
say, it will make little difference. India has already sought and
obtained a waiver to conduct civil nuclear trade from the body and also
pledged to follow its rules, whether or not we are members.
However,
it will be a dent in the prestige of the government, which had hyped-up
India’s efforts to enter the body to the point where being denied entry
will be seen as a major setback.
The NSG debate is a good primer of the manner in which world politics functions.
The
NSG itself is not a body based in international law, but a cartel of
the powerful - in this case, countries with the capacity to conduct
nuclear trade. The only language in which it communicates is power; and
the only method of negotiation is give and take.
There
are other similar bodies, beginning with the G7/G8 - now somewhat
chastened - but which once acted as arbiter of the international
economic system.
So
there is the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), a club of
countries which have the know-how of making missiles, space systems or
their components.
The
Australia Group is a cartel of countries making chemicals and the
precursors of chemical weapons - and then there's the Wassenaar Group of
countries with advanced conventional weapons technologies.
As part of the India-US nuclear agreement of 2008, the US promised India ease of entry into all these groups.
This was said to be huge for India, as the only country that could achieve this goal was the US, the sole global superpower.
Being
cartels and not international agreements, these regimes are not always
universal. China, the major missile and arms exporting power, is not a
member of the MTCR or the Wassenaar, though it claims to harmonise its
rules with both of them.
Position
Given this perspective, China’s formal position raising the issue of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty was a red-herring.
It was not India’s refusal to join the NPT that led to the NSG’s creation, but its first nuclear test.
With
the world more or less accepting India as “a state with nuclear
weapons”, and marking this by the 2008 waiver, that issue should no
longer have any salience.
Neither should the Chinese need to assuage Pakistan’s angst.
Beijing
has been a major beneficiary of Islamabad’s obsession with India. It is
in its interest to prolong this situation, rather than bringing in
Pakistan from the cold.
It
is actually all about that oldest issue in diplomacy - give and
take. What is India willing to offer to China, in exchange for its
support for the Indian application for NSG membership?
Far
from being offered something, Beijing believes it is seeing increased
Indian truculence. New Delhi has gone out of its way to connect freedom
of navigation issues with the South China Sea, and tried to shame China
into placing Jaishe-Muhammad chief Masood Azhar in the ISIS-Al Qaeda
sanctions list at the UN. Indian entities with government backing sought
to organise a conference of the entire galaxy of Chinese dissidents -
and that, too, at the headquarters of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan
government in exile.
As it is, India has been disdainful towards Beijijng’s pet initiative, the One Belt One Road.
Membership
New
Delhi, however, believes that it has sought to balance its ties with
China by participating in the New Development (BRICS) Bank and the Asia
Infrastructure Development Bank.
India
has sought membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and
sought to put an even spin on its position on maritime issues in the
communiqué issued after the Russia-India-China meeting in April,
upholding UNCLOS and addressing disputes through “negotiations and
agreements” between the parties concerned.
In June it dropped references to the South China Sea in relation to freedom of navigation issues.
It
has also indirectly signaled that, were it to become a member of the
NSG, it would consider the Pakistani application on its merits.
But what will clinch the issue is the deal Jaishankar will be seeking to strike with Beijing.
Such deals are not made in public. We can only surmise their existence through the outcomes, or in hindsight.
Mail Today June 20, 2016
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