Darwinian world order: 2008 was different, there was global cooperation and no blame game about subprime origins

In June 2003, when Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s delegation arrived in Beijing, the bustling city was eerily quiet, with hotels, restaurants and roads empty. The SARS epidemic was peaking and Beijing remained in the list of “affected areas”. The Chinese were visibly grateful for the visit whose consequences were far reaching. It laid the foundations of Sino-Indian economic relations and a fast track to resolve their border dispute. The two countries grew sharply in the next decade and even rode out the 2008 economic crisis. That they did not resolve their border issue is another story.

This segued into an era of political calmness of leaders like Manmohan Singh, Hu Jintao and Barack Obama. There was no blame game about the subprime origins of the 2008 recession, instead an atmosphere of cooperation led to accords on diverse issues like climate change and Iran’s nuclear problem. The global trading order evolved in new directions with TPP. The world has taken a different tack today. As the Covid pandemic kills by the thousands and brings the world economy to its knees, it’s each nation for itself, global leadership is marked by its absence.

In the past decade we have seen China militarise the South China Sea, Russia invade Crimea, plus the US demolish international accords, walk away from TPP and attack international institutions like WTO and WHO. But most worrisome now is the incipient conflict between the US and China, whose fallout will affect the world.

The US under President Trump believes that Beijing is bent on replacing its primacy as the world’s leading military and economic power. Actually, the US is itself responsible for its relative decline through wars in the Middle East. But what is really sapping US strength is internal division.  NYT has shown that while US GDP rose 79% since 1980 after adjusting for inflation and population growth, the after tax incomes of its rich increased 420% but those of the bottom and middle rose only 20% and 50%.

The political consequence of this was Donald Trump. In his policies against immigration, globalisation and China, he has spread the blame everywhere except where it really lies: the narcissistic ruling class of the US. This has failed the country, as well as the world, which depends on US leadership at times like this.

Even so, the American decline has been only relative. US GDP per capita is around $65000 while China’s is around $9500. As for military expenditure, China’s $250 billion pales before America’s $649 billion in 2018.  Beijing is a long way away from having the capacity to replace the US as the global hegemon.

Given their own shoddy handling of the Covid outbreak, Trump and the Republicans believe they must demonise China to win the November elections. Leave alone the Phase I trade deal, Trump could, under pressure from the Biden campaign, double down on measures he has been taking  on 5G and proscribe trade in other areas related to Beijing’s  Made in China 2025 project – robotics, AI, electrical vehicles, green energy, aerospace, power, pharmaceuticals etc.  China would be hurt badly but coming on top of the Covid crash, it could have a devastating ripple effect not just in East and Southeast Asia but the world.

Unlike SARS, Covid has accentuated the negatives of the global order with consequences still unfolding. In the US alone 26 million people have lost their jobs, across the world it could bring mass starvation and the impoverishment of hundreds of millions who made it out of poverty in the last two decades.  It has doubled down on the Darwinian world Trump has made, where survival is only for the fittest. The Chinese will bully their South China Sea neighbours, even while being bullied by the US, and President Putin will go on with his games in Ukraine. As for the small and the weak, they’ll have to learn to swim with the tide or go under.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-edit-page/darwinian-world-order-2008-was-different-there-was-global-cooperation-and-no-blame-game-about-subprime-origins/

Times of India April 25, 2020