The year 2014 could well have been an exceptional year for modern India’s political history. This
is the year when Narendra Modi, a rank outsider and a political outcast
in 2002, stormed his way to power as the prime minister of the country,
at the head of the first government since 1989 to have a majority of
its own.
By
the end of the year, through significant victories in Assembly
elections in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand, and the impressive
showing in Jammu & Kashmir, the Modi phenomenon had steamrollered
the Opposition.
The
question in all minds is whether the Modi effect will continue to
operate in 2015. Will the party, which today has 1,058 members of the
Legislative Assembly in the various states of the country, as compared
to 949 of the Congress, score in Delhi and Bihar Assembly polls?
But
equally important is the question of whether Modi will be able to
initiate his development agenda, or be derailed by the Vishwa Hindu
Parishad, Bajrang Dal and assorted Right-wing radicals whose goals are
nothing short of converting this huge and diverse country into the
homogenous politico-religious entity of their twisted imagination.
Unlike
the shell-shocked Congress, which seems set to decline, the BJP’s Bihar
opponents - bitter rivals Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad - have actually
reunited.
Further,
the election will be conducted at a time when the effect of the Modi
bulldozer will be wearing off. If the BJP wins Bihar, it will target
West Bengal and Assam in 2016 and, then the biggest prize of them all -
the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh in 2017.
Notwithstanding
the Bihar combination, Modi’s biggest challenge seems to be from
within. The struggle is between those who believe that Modi’s mandate is
to bring a governance revolution in the country which would lead to a
clean, corruption-free and prosperous - and others, who think that the
mandate was to assert the primacy of the country's majority community by
reconverting minorities and reforming and restructuring education.
But
as 2014 ended, it was clear that the message of good governance was
being drowned out by the cacophony of the Hindu right-wing. To that end,
they have launched a guerrilla war challenging conversion of Hindus,
even while attacking Bible study classes, harassing Christian
congregations and preventing interfaith marriages.
Modi himself has given ambiguous signals by derailing Christmas Day through his call to celebrate it as Good Governance Day.
Modi’s
dilemma is palpable. Emotionally and intellectually, he is very much
part of the Sangh Parivar. But as the chief minister of Gujarat he has
grown and outgrown the narrow confines of ideology and understands the
virtues and compulsions of pragmatism.
At
one level, he understands the importance of the Parivar elements in his
victory. It is clear that he understands the dangers posed by the
monofocal agenda of the Sangh. Whenever the RSS and its Parivar has
obsessed on conversion or reconversion, Modi has sought to take the high
ground and promote “secular issues” - cleanliness through the Swachh
Bharat campaign, ‘Make in India’ to promote manufacturing, and so on.
In
his radio talks, he has spoken on a variety of issues such as drug
addiction, and in his Independence Day address, he also took up the
theme of women’s empowerment.
In
2015, Modi and the BJP have to show that it is not enough to arouse
expectations; they also need to go the distance in meeting them.
Modi, pictured during his time as BJP nominee, receives a rapturous reception in Varanasi
Contrary
to what the Sangh Parivar believes, these are not about the identity of
Indians - Hindu or otherwise - but about their everyday life - roti,
kapda, makaan, education, job opportunities and a sense of well-being.
Any
effort to side-track this agenda will result in a blow-back which will
hurt the BJP politically. One important test that is already upon the
government is to deal with the fractured outcome of the J&K
elections. Modi must address it not just as the leader of a party that
has done very well in the polls, but as the PM who has to deal with a
complex state which is teetering on the brink.
In
the process, he can also send a signal of the BJP’s willingness to
engage with and come up with constructive solutions with parties
representing minorities.
In
proportion to our population, the minorities may not appear significant
in India - Muslims 13.4 per cent, Christians 2.3 per cent and Sikhs 1.9
per cent. But in terms of numbers, the picture looks very different -
Muslims 162 million, Christians 28 million and Sikhs 23 million - all
spread out across the country.
But
remember that in 1991, the disaffection of a small number of the 16
million Sikhs became a major national security challenge to the country.
What would be the consequences of the radicalisation of even a fraction
of the minority population today?
There
should be no doubts that the key consequence of polarising communities
and increasing their insecurity will be the derailing of the
government’s development agenda.
PM Modi gives a speech during his Australia trip
So,
the Modi government will have to decide what its priorities are in
2015. As it is, the first two sessions of Parliament under the new
government have been less than stellar.
Modi
may have major political challenges, but his governance tasks are no
less daunting. There are short-term issues of passing key legislation to
promote economic growth. And then, there are equally compelling
requirements to restructure and reform the government itself.
Since
the governance cannot be put on hold, the processes must be a
continuing exercise. If on one hand, he is confronted by the lack of
numbers in the Rajya Sabha, on the other, he has a serious shortage of
personnel - ministerial and expert - to undertake restructuring and
reform needed to overcome the structural constraints to sustained high
growth of the Indian economy.
More
than that, he needs to be free from the distractions of the Hindutva
agenda. In Gujarat, he had successfully kept the VHP and the Bajrang Dal
at bay and maintained an uneasy relationship with the RSS.
So
far, ties between the RSS and Modi have been good. They know that if
Modi needs them to fulfil his political ambitions, they, too, need
Modi’s abilities to remain in a position to influence policy.
Modi has closely consulted with the RSS and even inducted their personnel into the BJP.
In
the coming year, we will see this dynamic being played out in greater
detail. There is an element of cynical calculation in both Modi and the
Sangh’s attitudes. Modi seeks to yoke the Parivar to his goals, while
the RSS is using the Parivar to keep Modi on the straight and narrow
path it envisages for the country.
The
tension between the two could well be the big political story of 2015.
But both need to realise that they hold in their hands the key to
India’s future. With external factors like oil prices favouring India,
what it needs is a stable political environment to create a prosperous
India.
The Sangh Parivar’s overreach could create circumstances that could destroy the promise of the Modi election in one short year.
Mail Today December 31, 2014
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