What’s with Prime Minister Narendra Modi ? In
the past two weeks, in various speeches, he has raised the standard of
combating terrorism. True, this is the period in which horrific attacks were
carried out in Paris, Bamako and Beirut, but nothing unusual has happened in
India. Indeed, there has been no major development on the terrorism front in
India since 2008 which saw the Mumbai attacks and the bombing campaign of the
so-called Indian Mujahideen.
Wherever he goes, his emphasis, at least as
reported in Indian newspapers, seems to
be on fighting terrorism. Speaking at the 18-member East Asia Summit (EAS) in
Kuala Lumpur on Sunday, he called for “a new global resolve and new strategies”
to combat terrorism. Later addressing the diaspora, he termed terrorism as “the
biggest threat to the world.”
Even before the Paris attack, Modi had flagged the issue when he told
British parliamentarians that “The world must speak in one voice and act in
unison to combat this challenge of our times” and called for the adoption of a
comprehensive convention on international terrorism at the United Nations
“without delay.”
Following the Paris attack, the Prime Minister
joined world leaders in condemning the attack and in an intervention during the
G-20 working dinner on November 15, he spoke out emphatically against
terrorism. Referring to the rise of the IS, he pointed out that “old structures
of terrorism [read Lashkar-e-Tayyeba] remain” and that “there are countries
that still use it as an instrument of state policy [read Pakistan]”.
This is surprising because in the last seven years Pakistan-backed
terrorism has actually declined sharply. A look at the statistics in the South Asia
Terrorism Portal show that the bulk of what passes off as terrorist violence in
India is related to the Maoists in central India and the various insurgents of
the North-east. In Jammu & Kashmir, violence aided by Pakistan is down
sharply. As compared to 103 security personnel killed by Maoists and in the
North-east, the total is 38 in J&K and 8 in other parts of the country.
The
story was similar the year before, in 2014. Some 110 security personnel were
killed in central India and the North-east, as compared to 51 in J&K and
zero in other parts of India. Those killed in other parts of India is an
important category since this usually includes terrorists who operate under the
direction of Pakistani parties. But the last time this category meant something
was in 2008 when 337 people died in other parts of India, with 166 being killed
in the Mumbai attacks and others in bombing campaigns in New Delhi, Jaipur and
Ahmedabad.
Now, it is well known that the Maoist
violence and North-east issues have domestic origins and are not quite
connected to the global terrorism that the PM seems to be talking about.
J&K is a category in itself, but it is just last week that K Rajindra, the
Director General of police said at a press meet that both crime and terrorism
were declining in the state and that the instances of Islamic State flags were
more an attention grabbing stunt than any indication of the spread of the Daesh
ideology.
So, what accounts for Modi’s over-the-top attempt
to become a world leader in fighting the terrorist menace everywhere ? In
all fairness, one part of it has to do with the events of the times, notably
the Paris attack. But while it is one thing for New Delhi to condemn the
attack, there is little India can do to assist France and the international
community to fight the Daesh, since India is itself not affected by the Islamic
State phenomenon. Modi’s prescription, made in the speech to the East Asia
summit, that there was need to delink terrorism and religion is misleading,
because the Daesh, indeed, has everything to do with Islam, or an
interpretation of it. It is important to understand the challenge of Islamism,
given the nature of Islam as a faith which adheres to a book which is
considered the word of God and which does contain statements and declarations
that have encouraged the Islamic State to enslave and behead people and visit
all kinds of barbarity on them.
One answer that comes to mind is that
terrorism is proving to be a convenient handle for Modi to bash Pakistan. Terrorism
has clearly become the most important filter through which the Modi government
views Pakistan. As we have indicated that this seems a bit odd
given the decline of Pakistan-backed violence. Indeed, this fact could have
served to engage Islamabad, instead, a loud campaign has been launched which
does not seem to be getting much traction anywhere.
The other is that it helps Modi to paper
over his other failures, notably in carrying out the transformative reforms he
had promised the country and the world. Given his outsize self-image, he
therefore seems to be keen to use it to establish his standing as a global
leader of consequence. But he is ploughing a path which has been well trod,
especially on the issue of terrorism. The global convention on terrorism that he has been raising time and
again recently is a measure that India has been pushing in vain since 1996 and
we are no nearer to it today, than we were then.
If Modi wants the attention and adulation
he received in the past year to continue, he has to avoid the short-cuts of
ringing declarations and slogans. He needs to buckle down to the self-same
reforms that made India--and he Modi as its leader-- attractive to the global
community in the first place.
Mid Day November 24 2015
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