THE meeting between National Security
Adviser Ajit Doval and his new Pakistani counterpart Lt Gen (retd) Nasir
Khan Janjua, marks the beginning of a thaw in India-Pakistan
relations.
This is likely to be
followed by the participation of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj
in the Heart of Asia Conference in Islamabad on December 8.
The
meeting between the two NSAs, accompanied by their respective foreign
secretaries, marks the resumption of a constructive discourse between
the two countries, which had been derailed by needless controversy over
the agenda in September this year.
According to a joint statement, the NSA
discussions covered all issues including Jammu & Kashmir. The
carefully staged meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his
counterpart Nawaz Sharif at the side lines of the Climate conference in
Paris last week was the first indicator of the changing India-Pakistan
scenario.
Ties
Parallel
to this has been the improvement of New Delhi’s ties with President
Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan. Minus these developments, Modi would have
found it difficult to meet his commitment to attend the SAARC summit in
Islamabad.
This will be the first prime
ministerial visit by an Indian leader since 2004, when PM Vajpayee went
to Pakistan for a similar purpose, but which led to a major bilateral
process in its side lines.
It would also have damaged India’s efforts
to play a significant role in Afghanistan which include hosting the
14-nation Heart of Asia Conference in New Delhi next year. Stabilising
Afghanistan and peace with Pakistan form a continuum for Indian policy
makers because failure in either country has the potential to
destabilise the ties with the other.
The
challenge for India and the global community is to persuade Pakistan to
deliver a ceasefire in Afghanistan by pressuring the Taliban. Kunduz
attack in September showed that the Taliban had not changed.
According
to the Amnesty International, the short Taliban occupation resulted in
mass murder, gang rapes and house-tohouse searches by Taliban death
squads targeting women activists. While the US and NATO have extended
their mission till the end of 2016, they cannot guarantee peace there.
As it is, Taliban infighting is making the process difficult for
Pakistan as well. India’s activities in Afghanistan, especially its
development work has been under the security umbrella of the
US-NATO-Afghan forces.
India has
committed $2 billion in aid to Kabul and its annual trade is around $680
million which can increase manifold if the Afghan-Pakistan Trade and
Transit Agreement (APTTA) is worked out to permit India-Afghan trade
through Pakistan. Improved ties with Islamabad can lead to a
breakthrough here which has the potential of transforming the
India-Pakistan- Afghanistan relationship.
Wishlist
Before
Kunduz, President Ghani reached out to Pakistan and there were reports
of deep engagement between the two states at the cost of India. However,
after Kunduz, there is a chill in Pakistan-Afghanistan ties.
The
NSA of Afghanistan Mohammed Hanif Atmar recently travelled to New Delhi
and had extensive talks with Doval and also put up a wishlist that
includes Kabul’s request for military supplies.
Actually
the Heart of Asia process does offer a window of convergence for India
and Pakistan to work together. Likewise New Delhi and Islamabad may
cooperate in combating terrorism and easing trade barrier through their
new membership to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a China-led
security initiative.
There are things
that Pakistan would be willing to do in a wider multilateral framework
with India which it will resist doing bilaterally. One example of this is the TAPI project.
Refugees
Given
its long land border, the existence of the Pakistani Taliban and the
huge number of Afghan refugees it hosts, Pakistan has great stakes in
the Afghan peace process.
We need to
recognise this, as well as understand that our stakes are comparatively
smaller than those countries which have land borders with Afghanistan.
This
means Islamabad also has big responsibilities, principally in dealing
with the Taliban and regaining the trust of the Afghans and letting the
peace process be Afghan-led, and not manipulated by Islamabad.
India’s
principal interest is to ensure that Afghanistan does not resume its
role as a staging area for groups like the LeT to stage attacks on
India.
Accompanying this is our desire
for longer term peace and stability in the AfPak region which can only
come through closer economic integration of SAARC states.
The
NSAs and foreign secretaries meeting in Bangkok signal a new direction
for Indian policy which was getting needlessly securitised by
privileging terrorism over all other issues. The Modi-Nawaz and the
Bangkok meetings signal the return to a more balanced approach which
will, no doubt, be challenged by forces who seek to disrupt
India-Pakistan relations. This is something we must be prepared for at
all times.
Mail Today December 6, 2015
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