Through tweets, statements and misstatements, the nature of the forthcoming Trump presidency is slowly revealing itself.But
perhaps the best way of assessing the next US administration as of now,
is to look at the selections that Trump has made for the Cabinet and
the White House.
Disruptors
So
far he has appointed 22 people and it is no surprise that of 17 of them
are white males, some of them older like himself; while the women in
the team have relatively unimportant portfolios.
The
other feature is that they are mainly rich executives and businessmen
with little or no experience in the portfolios they will handle.
Among
these are Rex Tillerson the former boss of Exxon Mobil, now Secretary
of State designate, or Steven Mnuchin, the nominee for the Department of
Treasury who is a former Goldman Sachs executive, Commerce Secretary
nominee Wilbur Ross who is a billionaire investor or Dr Ben Carson,
Secretary for Housing and Urban Development designate, who is a
neurosurgeon.
Just
what kind of a government Trump intends to run is evident from the fact
that many of the appointees are known critics of the very departments
they have now been chosen to head.Of course, there is still the matter of Senate confirmations in the coming year.
The
New York Times has categorised the cabinet as comprising of disruptors
like Scott Prutt, Oklahoma state attorney and climate change denier who
has been chosen to head the Environmental Protection Agency.
Or
former Texas governor Rick Perry who once wanted to abolish the
Department of Energy, the outfit he has been asked to head. In choosing
them, Trump wants them to change things, not run them as they were.
In
other words, disruption is expected from them, though just how much
disruption the huge and complex bureaucracy can take is a matter of
conjecture.
The
next category are deal makers like Tillerson and Mnuchin, who have
never worked with government before, but are leaders in their respective
field and have proven executive ability and should, over a period of
time, master their respective departments.
With
business and finance backgrounds, they know how to cut a deal in a
complex environment and understand the importance of gain and loss.
Variables
Whether
this presages a period in which the US reaches out to potential
opponents like Russia, China and Iran and works out ways of getting
along with them, or not, is something that remains to be seen.
In
foreign policy there is only so much that is under your control - some
variables are under the control of your adversaries, existing and
potential.
In any case given the present situation, deals will not be easy for everyone to stomach.
Western
Europe will not be particularly happy with a deal that get Putin off
their backs, in exchange for accepting that Ukraine, Belarus and Syria
are part of his sphere of influence.
Then,
there are loyalists like former Republican party head Reince Priebus
and the incoming NSA, Lt General Michael Flynn who stuck with Trump
through the thick and thin.
There
is the category of establishment persons who are close to the
right-wing of the Republicans and have ties with the US Congress.
President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a thank you rally in Ladd-Peebles Stadium
Among
these are Nikki Haley, Michael Pompeo the incoming CIA chief and Elaine
Chao, the wife of Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell.
Finally,
there is the category of former military personnel who can prove to
problematic - Flynn, defence secretary designate, Lt General James
Mattis and Marine General John Kelly to head Homeland Security.
As
it is, the generals who are well-known figures will tend to overshadow
the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff who is the principal military adviser
to the President.
Establishment
Presidents
in the past often sought out technocrats or people with substantive
experience in the field they were dealing with, but now we have retired
generals, top executives and leaders in the world of finance.
Such people also have notoriously big egos and you can be sure that they will clash.
To some extent this is by design as it will enable Trump to control them.
Further,
we need to pay attention as well to sub-cabinet appointees who will run
the powerful divisions of the various departments.
Trump has
put in transition or 'landing' teams into the departments which clearly
indicate that his goal is to live up to his promise of providing an
administration which in is opinion will not be influenced by the
'special interests' in Washington.
In other words, a combination of disruptors, deal-makers, loyalists and establishment personnel.However,
many of these figures will come from a very different pool of people
i.e. not the Washington establishment which Trump shuns, but further
afield.
Mail Today December 19, 2016
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