By now there is no middle ground left. Either you believe the
government version of what happened when an Indian Coast Guard ship met a
mysterious Pakistani fishing vessel over New Year's Eve. Or you don't.
The government version of events has finally taken shape. A meeting on
Tuesday now ensures that everyone is on the same page. Unfortunately, in
the previous five days the pages were flying in all directions.
The final version goes something like this: Around two weeks ago, the
National Technical Research Office (NTRO) picked up encrypted
communication between Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists, the Pakistani maritime
agency, their ISI handlers and some elements in Thailand. The
terrorists, following the track of the Mumbai attack boat, would target
Porbandar on January 12, when the Indian Navy was inaugurating a new
installation there.
A counter-operation led by National Security
Advisor Ajit Doval himself was launched and it involved the navy, the
Coast Guard (CG), the R&AW, and the Intelligence Bureau (IB).
The boat was tracked by a CG Dornier 228 aircraft and later shadowed by
a CG ship. At midnight on December 31, when it was 365 km West-South
West of Porbandar, the CG ordered the unlit ship to stop for
investigation. The suspect boat tried to get away and warning shots were
fired across its bow. The four people on board went down to the
compartment below the deck and set fire to the boat, leading to an
explosion and its sinking. Because it was dark and stormy, nothing could
be recovered and all we have in the public domain are two pictures. In
one, the boat is burning in the dark.
The headline of the
Ministry of Defence press release on January 2 spoke of a boat "carrying
explosives in the Arabian Sea". Then the word 'explosive' vanished from
the release. The t-word — terrorist — was not uttered. All that the
release acknowledged was that the intelligence related to "some illicit
transaction".
A full two days later on January 5, defence
minister Manohar Parrikar amended his ministry's statement observing
that "circumstantial evidence" suggested that the people in the boat
were terrorists — after all they had committed suicide, whereas
smugglers would have simply surrendered. He also noted that they were in
touch with Pakistani maritime and army officials.
On January 6, a
ministry of defence press release said that the Indian Navy "denies
reports... that it had not reacted to intelligence provided by the NTRO
(National Technical Research Organisation)," adding that the navy and
the Coast Guard responded as per their standard operating procedures.
This was to answer queries as to whether the navy, the nodal agency for
coastal security in India, was in the loop on the incident.
The questions are obvious and compelling. The NTRO is not supposed to
do retail snooping. Its job is to deploy hi-tech assets like satellites
and interception equipment to collect raw information and pass them on
to field agencies. There have been earlier complaints that the NTRO,
which has not been fulfilling its somewhat exacting mandate in hi-tech
intelligence-gathering and cryptography, had been taking recourse to
doing low-level telecom surveillance and sending intercepts directly to
consumers like state police forces.
Intercepts and bits of
information need to be analysed before they are acted upon. That is why
the Multi-Agency Centre (MAC) has been set up. Yet, the MAC seems to
have played no role in this operation.
The navy was in the loop,
as it claims, as well as a target. Yet, it allowed a subordinate agency
to take the lead in protecting it. This is the equivalent of the army
using the Border Security Force (BSF) to protect itself. Equally
strange, the Maharashtra and Gujarat police were not kept in the loop.
So confident were the counter-terrorism team that it did not for a
minute think that this could be a ruse and that the target could be
elsewhere.
It is also strange that the operation took
place on the edge of India's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), 365 km from
Porbandar. Surely, it would have made more sense to have allowed the
suspect boat to come into our territorial waters — 12 nautical miles or
22 kms or less from the shore, where we could have legally boarded it
forcibly? Even if it was sunk, you could have then recovered the
evidence in the shallower waters, or, if you were lucky, captured one of
the terrorists.
The government says it has more
evidence, presumably the intercepts of the conversations. If so, they
can be released, just as the Pervez Musharraf-Mohammad Aziz
conversations were released during the Kargil War. One can also wonder
just why more than a week has elapsed and India has still not issued a
demarche or a protest to Pakistan on this attempted terrorist operation
in which New Delhi forcefully says it has evidence of official
complicity.
There are periodic claims of the government of
destroying this terrorist module or that. But none of these is
justiciable in that no one is tried and convicted. This is in contrast
to, say, the counter-terrorist operations that, say, Britain has carried
out in recent years where the bad guys have been trapped, tried and
convicted. This has its own credibility.
Accepting the government version here will, therefore, have to be an act of faith, not facts leading to certainty.
Economic Times January 10, 2015
Wednesday, February 04, 2015
Pak boat op has left intel agencies red-faced
The incident
involving the sinking of a fishing vessel off the coast of Gujarat on New
Year’s Day has raised more questions than it has answered. To start with, the
Ministry of Defence press release announcing the event was itself less than
categorical. While its headline noted that the Coast Guard had intercepted a
“suspect boat carrying explosives”, the text of the release did not thereafter
mention “explosives”, though it did say eventually that the crew set the boat
on fire “which resulted in an explosion”. All it said was that as per
intelligence inputs on December 31, a fishing boat from Keti Bandar, a small
port near Karachi, “was planning some illicit transaction in Arabian Sea
(sic)”. It did not mention the word “terrorist” or “terrorism” either.
This photograph, released by the Defence Ministry on January 2, shows the Pakistani boat that blew up and sank during a high-speed chase at sea. File pic
To make
up for it, as it were, the Minister of Defence Manohar Parrikar spoke up two
days later, on Monday morning, when he declared that the men in the boat “were
suspected terrorists… mainly because they committed suicide”; smugglers would
have simply surrendered. Since the Coast Guard has not managed to pick up any
body or any other debris, the minister’s claim is on the basis of
circumstantial evidence.
There are
several problems with the story as it has been put out and many of these have
been listed in the internet or in newspapers. But what the incident does seem
to bring out is the continuing dysfunction of our intelligence system and the
high levels of incompetence in matters of national security. First, the
National Technical Research Organisation had no business to directly provide
the intercept to the Coast Guard, along with the Navy. Second, since the Navy
is the lead agency in coastal security, the Coast Guard should have taken
action after consulting with the Navy brass.
The NTRO
is supposed to deal with collecting information through high-tech means. But
even if they got the intercept, they should have given it to the Multi-Agency
Centre (MAC), which has been specially created to coordinate and analyse inputs
relating to terrorism from different sources. The fishing vessel drama was
relatively slow moving. The intercept happened a day or two earlier and there
was more than enough time for the MAC to have assessed and analysed it. In the
world of intelligence, one bit of information is not particularly useful,
unless it is put together with other pieces and put through an analytical
process. In the case of the Mumbai attack of 2008, the key failure was not in
the information received there was information about the Pakistani plan and
even the movement of the terrorist vessel the problem was in our inability to
effectively analyse the information and understand how events would unfold on
the ground.
In this
case, too, in an alternative scenario, the boat could have been allowed to make
its way to the shore, shadowed by the Coast Guard, or, better still, the marine
commandos of the Navy who are trained in stealthy operations. The terrorists
could have been quickly rounded up when they landed and India would have had a
coup of sorts in exposing Pakistan once again. On the other hand, if the aim of
the boat was to transfer weapons or explosives to another vessel, too, the
Coast Guard could have waited and caught both the terrorists and their contacts
red handed. Instead action took place at the very edge of India’s disputed
maritime boundary with Pakistan, making pursuit difficult.
Unfortunately,
all we have now is a lot of red faces. People are not sure as to what exactly
happened. Defence Minister Parrikar says that the fact that they committed
suicide indicates that they were terrorists. On the other hand, the LeT
terrorists have consistently preferred to fight and die, rather than simply
commit hara-kiri. In that scenario, the alleged terrorists in the boat would
have allowed the Coast Guard to approach their boat and then opened fire and
died in the process. The idea that the four people simply went down into the
hold of the boat and set it on fire does not quite jell.
The
government claims would be more credible if they released the pictures of
terrorists on the boat. According to some reports citing the Coast Guard, the
people in the boat were not dressed like fishermen. Then, how were they
dressed? Surely if the boat was being tracked and then approached by the Coast
Guard ship, we should have more and better pictures of how the action
proceeded.
In a
situation like this, it is unlikely that we will learn the whole truth. But the
government needs to urgently examine the sequence of events and ask the NTRO as
to why it has gotten into the business of directly supplying intercepts to
field agencies. This is simply not its mandate. The NTRO is supposed to provide
raw intelligence to the various agencies who are then supposed to analyse it.
In the case of terrorist-related information, the MAC has been set up to prevent
anything falling through the cracks. In this case, clearly something has.
Second,
the government needs to find out just why the Navy was bypassed. According to
the government decision in the wake of the Mumbai attack, the responsibility
for coastal security has been given to the Indian Navy. In other words, if the
Coast Guard is launching a major operation, it needs to do so with the
permission of the Navy chain of command, especially since, according to
reports, the Navy had also been given the same information and had assessed
that it did not involve any threat to national security. There seems to be a
facile assumption in our security establishment that the next terrorist attack,
when it comes, will be like the last one. Hence the scenarios of seaborne
Mumbai attack or the Kandahar hijack are being mooted. The reality probably
will be a twisted surprise. The agencies should worry about the outlier
scenarios, rather than obsessing about their past failures.
Mid Day
January 6, 2015
Thursday, January 29, 2015
The year of the 'chaiwallah': How Modi scripted India's future in 2014
The year 2014 could well have been an exceptional year for modern India’s political history. This
is the year when Narendra Modi, a rank outsider and a political outcast
in 2002, stormed his way to power as the prime minister of the country,
at the head of the first government since 1989 to have a majority of
its own.
By
the end of the year, through significant victories in Assembly
elections in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand, and the impressive
showing in Jammu & Kashmir, the Modi phenomenon had steamrollered
the Opposition.
The
question in all minds is whether the Modi effect will continue to
operate in 2015. Will the party, which today has 1,058 members of the
Legislative Assembly in the various states of the country, as compared
to 949 of the Congress, score in Delhi and Bihar Assembly polls?
But
equally important is the question of whether Modi will be able to
initiate his development agenda, or be derailed by the Vishwa Hindu
Parishad, Bajrang Dal and assorted Right-wing radicals whose goals are
nothing short of converting this huge and diverse country into the
homogenous politico-religious entity of their twisted imagination.
Unlike
the shell-shocked Congress, which seems set to decline, the BJP’s Bihar
opponents - bitter rivals Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad - have actually
reunited.
Further,
the election will be conducted at a time when the effect of the Modi
bulldozer will be wearing off. If the BJP wins Bihar, it will target
West Bengal and Assam in 2016 and, then the biggest prize of them all -
the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh in 2017.
Notwithstanding
the Bihar combination, Modi’s biggest challenge seems to be from
within. The struggle is between those who believe that Modi’s mandate is
to bring a governance revolution in the country which would lead to a
clean, corruption-free and prosperous - and others, who think that the
mandate was to assert the primacy of the country's majority community by
reconverting minorities and reforming and restructuring education.
But
as 2014 ended, it was clear that the message of good governance was
being drowned out by the cacophony of the Hindu right-wing. To that end,
they have launched a guerrilla war challenging conversion of Hindus,
even while attacking Bible study classes, harassing Christian
congregations and preventing interfaith marriages.
Modi himself has given ambiguous signals by derailing Christmas Day through his call to celebrate it as Good Governance Day.
Modi’s
dilemma is palpable. Emotionally and intellectually, he is very much
part of the Sangh Parivar. But as the chief minister of Gujarat he has
grown and outgrown the narrow confines of ideology and understands the
virtues and compulsions of pragmatism.
At
one level, he understands the importance of the Parivar elements in his
victory. It is clear that he understands the dangers posed by the
monofocal agenda of the Sangh. Whenever the RSS and its Parivar has
obsessed on conversion or reconversion, Modi has sought to take the high
ground and promote “secular issues” - cleanliness through the Swachh
Bharat campaign, ‘Make in India’ to promote manufacturing, and so on.
In
his radio talks, he has spoken on a variety of issues such as drug
addiction, and in his Independence Day address, he also took up the
theme of women’s empowerment.
In
2015, Modi and the BJP have to show that it is not enough to arouse
expectations; they also need to go the distance in meeting them.
Modi, pictured during his time as BJP nominee, receives a rapturous reception in Varanasi
Contrary
to what the Sangh Parivar believes, these are not about the identity of
Indians - Hindu or otherwise - but about their everyday life - roti,
kapda, makaan, education, job opportunities and a sense of well-being.
Any
effort to side-track this agenda will result in a blow-back which will
hurt the BJP politically. One important test that is already upon the
government is to deal with the fractured outcome of the J&K
elections. Modi must address it not just as the leader of a party that
has done very well in the polls, but as the PM who has to deal with a
complex state which is teetering on the brink.
In
the process, he can also send a signal of the BJP’s willingness to
engage with and come up with constructive solutions with parties
representing minorities.
In
proportion to our population, the minorities may not appear significant
in India - Muslims 13.4 per cent, Christians 2.3 per cent and Sikhs 1.9
per cent. But in terms of numbers, the picture looks very different -
Muslims 162 million, Christians 28 million and Sikhs 23 million - all
spread out across the country.
But
remember that in 1991, the disaffection of a small number of the 16
million Sikhs became a major national security challenge to the country.
What would be the consequences of the radicalisation of even a fraction
of the minority population today?
There
should be no doubts that the key consequence of polarising communities
and increasing their insecurity will be the derailing of the
government’s development agenda.
PM Modi gives a speech during his Australia trip
So,
the Modi government will have to decide what its priorities are in
2015. As it is, the first two sessions of Parliament under the new
government have been less than stellar.
Modi
may have major political challenges, but his governance tasks are no
less daunting. There are short-term issues of passing key legislation to
promote economic growth. And then, there are equally compelling
requirements to restructure and reform the government itself.
Since
the governance cannot be put on hold, the processes must be a
continuing exercise. If on one hand, he is confronted by the lack of
numbers in the Rajya Sabha, on the other, he has a serious shortage of
personnel - ministerial and expert - to undertake restructuring and
reform needed to overcome the structural constraints to sustained high
growth of the Indian economy.
More
than that, he needs to be free from the distractions of the Hindutva
agenda. In Gujarat, he had successfully kept the VHP and the Bajrang Dal
at bay and maintained an uneasy relationship with the RSS.
So
far, ties between the RSS and Modi have been good. They know that if
Modi needs them to fulfil his political ambitions, they, too, need
Modi’s abilities to remain in a position to influence policy.
Modi has closely consulted with the RSS and even inducted their personnel into the BJP.
In
the coming year, we will see this dynamic being played out in greater
detail. There is an element of cynical calculation in both Modi and the
Sangh’s attitudes. Modi seeks to yoke the Parivar to his goals, while
the RSS is using the Parivar to keep Modi on the straight and narrow
path it envisages for the country.
The
tension between the two could well be the big political story of 2015.
But both need to realise that they hold in their hands the key to
India’s future. With external factors like oil prices favouring India,
what it needs is a stable political environment to create a prosperous
India.
The Sangh Parivar’s overreach could create circumstances that could destroy the promise of the Modi election in one short year.
Mail Today December 31, 2014
Enter the mellowed dragon
The Chinese economy may be slowing, but the country remains on a roll. The
year gone by, 2014, saw Beijing display a new level of confidence and
poise, as it steadily enhanced its influence across its region and the
world.
At
first sight, 2015 would appear to promise more of the same. But in
actual fact, we may see a somewhat different China in terms of its
approach to neighbours, both friendly and otherwise.
Beijing is becoming increasingly aware that its policies have led to heightened tensions between China and its neighbours.
India has reported a steady drumbeat of Chinese incursions into what it considers its side of the Line of Actual Control.
In
April 2013 in Depsang and in September 2014 in Chumur, the People’s
Liberation Army staged confrontations to coincide with the visits of
senior leaders to India.
China
and Japan have faced off several times over the Senkaku/Diayou islands
and in 2013, China took the unprecedented step of declaring an Air
Defence Information Zone (ADIZ) around the islands over
Japanese-controlled air space, demanding that all flights through the
zone be notified to Beijing.
Diplomatic
In
the South China Sea, China started asserting its authority by issuing
fishing permits in what it claims is its EEZ. It threw out the
Philippines from the Scarborough Shoal and has strengthened its military
presence there. It has also started building islands in disputed reefs
to strengthen its claims.
These
developments led countries in the region to seek America’s help and, in
turn, the US beefed up its presence in the area. This led to serious
confrontations between the US and Chinese ships and aircraft.
So
the Chinese now appear to be working hard to come across as being less
prickly and overbearing. Even while remaining determined to pursue a
foreign policy “with Chinese characteristics,” they intend to ensure
that their policies do not give their adversaries an opportunity to
build up a ring fence around them.
To
this end, they intend to change their diplomatic style, as well as
using their enormous pile of cash to win friends and influence people.
The
world often sees China as a monolithic, monochromatic nation,
relentlessly marching towards a future which it has clearly defined for
itself. The reality, however, is a nation led by a Communist Party elite
which is very good at doing what it does, and which works hard at
remaining where it is — at the top of the country’s political pyramid.
In
2014, even while the country remained riveted by a major
anti-corruption campaign which has begun reaching the higher echelons of
the system, it took time to conduct the Fourth Plenum in which the
Communist Party sought to take steps to shore up the legitimacy of its
rule in the country.
Perhaps
more significant was a major party work conference convened in Beijing
involving the entire Chinese elite - party, military and government - to
discuss the country’s future foreign policy.
Xi’s remarks at the conference were nuanced and sought to distance China from its brash and assertive posture.
Friendly
At
another level, Xi signalled that China wants to be seen as a big power
like the US, which is not just feared but also trusted and emulated
across the world in a range of areas.
As
it is, through the year, Beijing has taken steps away from the brink.
On the sidelines of the APEC summit in early November 2014, Xi Jinping
had a short meeting with his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe, and prior
to that a four-point plan was agreed upon to reduce tension, promote
dialogue and create crisis management mechanisms.
Simultaneously,
China also signed two important military confidence building agreements
with the US. One provides a mechanism for notifying the two countries
of each other’s activities, including military exercises. The second
sets rules of behaviour in cases of encounters in the sea and air.
The
APEC meeting itself came in the wake of China and its BRICS partners
setting up the New Development Bank, headquartered in Shanghai.
Simultaneously,
Beijing also initiated moves to set up a new Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank (AIIB) with participation of a number of key Asian
countries.
Around
this time, China also announced massive investment plans within the
country, as well as $40 billion for the Silk Road initiative to develop
railways, roads, pipelines and ports in areas of its interest.
Consequences
At
the sidelines of the APEC summit, Xi told a group of CEOs that China’s
outward bound investment would top $1.25 trillion over the next 10
years, that it would import $10 trillion worth of goods over the next
five years and 500 million Chinese tourists would go abroad. Good
relations with China, Xi seemed to be suggesting, would be of mutual
benefit.
In
this manner, Beijing is seeking to align the interests of its
neighbours with its rise, and thereby to convince them that it is not
threatening.
None
of this suggests that the Chinese will immediately become less
assertive or abandon what they call their “core interests” - control
over Tibet and Xinjiang, reunification with Taiwan, and their more
recent inclusion to the list, the Diayou islands.
But
it could signal the beginning of incremental change, which could have
implications for Beijing’s dealings with its fatuous South China Sea
claims, as well as the disputed border with India.
A
shift in Chinese behaviour, howsoever motivated and incremental, will
have important consequences for Asia, which is otherwise witnessing a
major arms build-up occasioned by Beijing’s own conduct.
To use Xi’s phrase, “win win” formulations are infinitely preferable to being tangled in self-defeating conflicts.
Mail Today December 30, 2014
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
PDP should look at BJP as a partner
The
Bharatiya Janata Party’s Mission 44 may not have succeeded, but its
chain reaction transformed the Jammu & Kashmir State Assembly
elections as nothing else could have. No one expected the BJP to win 44
seats in the state. But the party’s campaign, involving repeated visits
by Narendra Modi and a galaxy of party leaders, resulted, perhaps
inadvertently, in an outcome that has been described as the most
credible election since 1977. It certainly had the highest turnout
ever—66 per cent. It was also the most peaceful election held in the
post militancy period.
Bewilderment
No
one charged anyone with irregularity, and the winners and losers have
all accepted the results with some bewilderment and surprise. If there
is any party with a grouse, it is actually the winner, the Jammu &
Kashmir People’s Democratic Party (PDP) which emerged as the largest
single party with 28 seats in the 87-member legislature. In the runup to
the elections, the PDP was expected to be the largest single party, but
expectations were that they would be closer to the half way mark in the
assembly, say 35 seats, which would have required it to lead a
coalition, possibly with the Congress and/or with independents.
‘Mission
44’ was more of a mobilisational slogan than an actual target which
brought the party to the number two position with 25 seats. The party
may have drawn a blank in the Valley, but perhaps, the failure lies in
the failure to effectively mobilise its Kashmiri Pandit supporters. Of
31,000 migrant voters for whom polling booths were set up in New Delhi
and Jammu, only 5,169 exercised their franchise. A higher turnout could
have assured the BJP’s Moti Koul of victory in Habba Kadal.
Despite their ideological differences,
a PDP-BJP tie-up will be the most stable option. This can only benefit
the people of J&K
But
the ‘Mission 44’s unplanned achievement was to undermine the separatist
tactic of boycotting the election. Panicked by the prospect of the BJP
making inroads into the Valley, separatists came out to vote and backed
the NC, PDP and even the Congress where they could. The figures tell
their own story. The turnout in Sopur was 1.03 in the Lok Sabha poll and
30 per cent in the Assembly election, likewise in Tral is was 1.53 per
cent in the LS poll and 37.68 for the Assembly. This was the story in
other such con stituencies: Pampore 6.14 and 47.48, Pulwama 4.44 and
38.31, Zadibal 5.86 and 23.64, Batmaloo 12.4 and 24.34 and so on.
One
beneficiary of this was the National Conference which was expecting a
washout, but it actually managed to get 15 seats. Another was the
Congress party which lost 12 of the 17 seats it had in the Jammu region.
But it picked up four seats in the Valley and three in Ladakh and the
other five from the Muslim- majority regions of the Jammu region. It did
not win a single seat from the Hindudominated areas of the state.
Performance
The
BJP’s performance has been its best ever. The party won 8 seats to the
Assembly in 1996, 1 in 2002 and 10 in 2008 in the wake of the Amarnath
agitation. This time they got 25 seats across the Jammu region. However,
all their candidates, but one, lost their deposits in the Kashmir
Valley. In terms of sheer numbers, the party can play the role of a
king-maker in the Valley.
Given
the fractured mandate, almost all permutations and combinations have
this infirmity or that. The PDP would prefer teaming up with the weaker
Congress party. However, numbers will be an issue and the resulting
government may not be very stable. Teaming up with the NC is something
of a non sequitur because the two compete for the same space in the
Valley. The option that looks the most stable is the one that many
consider improbable— a combine of the BJP and the PDP. This could take
the form of a coalition, or a commitment on the part of the BJP to
support a minority government of the PDP. The argument against this
option is that the two are ideologically poles apart. The “soft
separatist” PDP will find the going tough with the “hard nationalist”
BJP. But stranger things have happened in politics. And, given the
special needs of J&K, there is a requirement for a smooth
relationship between the governments in Srinagar and New Delhi.
A
major problem any new leader of the state must confront is the need to
bridge the divide between the Hindumajority areas in Jammu and the
Muslim-dominated Valley. Leaving aside the Congress, no party has a
presence across the state’s three major geographical regions—Jammu,
Kashmir and Ladakh.
The
way out could be an MoU between the BJP and PDP, which would commit the
latter to come up with legislation to enhance the autonomy between
Srinagar, Jammu and Leh. There is an issue which has been doing the
rounds since the 1960s and was also the subject of a report in 2000.
Perhaps this can be done in the larger context of addressing the demand
for greater autonomy by the state as well.
Responsibility
The
J&K verdict has devolved a special responsibility on the BJP. It
has emerged as the second largest party in the state, but more
important, it also runs the Government of India. Narendra Modi will have
to take a decision on his party’s perspective in the state as much
through the lens of a party leader as the Prime Minister of the country.
Nothing should be done which could compel the country to pay a needless
price later. It is important to heed the lessons from the Congress’
mishandling of the state in the period 1983-1989.
Mail Today December 24, 2014
The insane logic of violence
It is
difficult to find words to express the sheer horror of the attack on the Army
Public School in Peshawar, Pakistan. Killing helpless children is perhaps the
lowest to which people who call themselves freedom fighters and holy warriors
can descend to.
Our
immediate task is to step up security in our own schools, especially the ones
in the Jammu area, many run for army families living in the numerous
cantonments there. In such areas, military facilities are well defended and
secured, but residential quarters and schools barely figure in the security
plans. It may be recalled that in May 2002, terrorists did breach a military
residential area in Kaluchak, near Jammu and killed some 18 family members and
10 civilians and 3 army personnel. The dead included 10 children.
The uncle and cousin of injured student Mohammad Baqair (centre), comfort him as he mourns the death of his mother who was a teacher at the school which was attacked by the Taliban.
In
September 2013, three terrorists in camouflage uniforms breached the
international boundary in the Kathua district in Jammu and attacked a police
station and killed four policemen and two civilians. They then hijacked a truck
and reached an army camp in neighbouring Samba district, where they shot six
unarmed army personnel, along with a Lieutenant Colonel. Some reports at the
time said that the terrorists were looking for an army school and after failing
to find it, hit the armoured unit, which was on the main road.
You can
imagine what would have been the consequence of such an attack it would have
definitely led to an Indian military retaliation and possible escalation to
war. Fortunately, that did not happen. But now that scenario has played itself
out in the country which has had no hesitation in repeatedly sending killers,
who call themselves Fedayeen, cross into our borders to kill indiscriminately.
In the
case of Mumbai in 2008, Pakistani terrorists killed people who were of another
faith, but here, the extremist Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) killed their
own. This is the insane logic of the violent Islamic extremism. The Pakistani
deep state, which nourishes the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba, and allows a Hafiz Muhammad
Sayeed and his ilk to propagate hatred against India on the basis of religion,
should at least now understand and take down the monster they have created. But
that won’t happen and you will soon hear suggestions that India was behind the
attack because it is they who have nurtured the TTP through the Afghan
intelligence.
The
terrorists who killed the Pakistani school children claim that they have done
their horrifying deed in response to attack on their women folk and children by
the Pakistan Army’s operations against the TTP. While there is absolutely no
justification for killing innocents who had nothing to do with the Pakistan
Army operations, there is need to understand some of the context. The Pakistan
Army’s tactics involves using air power and heavy artillery against the elusive
guerrillas. Such attacks, more often than not, kill a large number of civilians
and have led to the displacement of lakhs of people. Even the so-called
precision drone strike campaign of the Americans has killed over 500 civilians
along with some 2,000 militants.
Over the
years, the Pakistan Army has had an on-again, off-again policy of dealing with
the militancy in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (the erstwhile North West Frontier
Province) area. Operations began in the area in 2002 as part of the American
action in Afghanistan. But the Pakistan Army targeted the Arab, Chechen, Uighur
and Uzbek elements, even while trying to make peace with the Pashtun tribes and
leaders like Baitullah Mehsud.
The
carefully calibrated Pakistani strategy was to allow the Afghan Taliban to
recover and undermine the American-led effort to stabilise Afghanistan. Among
their proxies were the Haqqani network along with several other tribal leaders
like Hafiz Gul Bahadar and Maulvi Nazir whose militancy was focused on
Afghanistan. Both the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban say that Mullah Omar is
their leader, but in October a number of leaders declared that they were
pledging their allegiance to the Islamic State.
Islamabad’s
strategy went awry when angered by the heavy-handed Pakistan Army attacks,
Baitullah formed the TTP in 2007 and declared war on Islamabad. But since
Baitullah’s death in a drone strike in 2009, the TTP has fragmented into
several groups, the most prominent being led by Maulana Fazlullah, who is from
Swat.
In 2009,
pushed by the US and by the fall of Swat to the militants, the Pakistan army
launched Operation Rah-e-Nijat and took control of South Waziristan. But all
the key militant leaders managed to escape to Afghanistan or to North
Waziristan. Despite enormous American pressure, the Pakistan army refused to
take up phase two of the operation in North Waziristan.
It was
only this June, after attempts of the Nawaz government to negotiate with the
TTP failed, and the latter not only killed 23 Pakistani soldiers in their
captivity, but also launched the audacious attack on Jinnah airport in Karachi,
that the army began its Operation Zarb-e-Azb which is still continuing. This
operation which has the support of almost all the Pakistani leadership, barring
the Jamaat-e-Islami, has been the direct cause of the school massacre on
Tuesday. But even now it is not clear just how the Pakistanis are dealing with
their proxies like the Haqqanis. In any case, the policy of “good” and “bad”
Taliban remains since the Afghan Taliban, including their leader Mullah Omar
continue to be provided shelter by Islamabad.
The Pakistani
offensive may have been just too late. Because today, violent Islamic extremism
has spread across the country, and is not something that can be tackled by the
army alone. Such is the situation that the world has almost given up on
Pakistan. But this tragedy could be the opportunity for Islamabad and
Rawalpindi to make that strategic shift away from using violent Islamic
extremists against its neighbours.
Mid Day December 17, 2014
It
is difficult to find words to express the sheer horror of the attack on
the Army Public School in Peshawar, Pakistan. Killing helpless children
is perhaps the lowest to which people who call themselves freedom
fighters and holy warriors can descend to. - See more at:
http://www.mid-day.com/articles/the-insane-logic-of-violence/15847160#sthash.f7xM2Elo.dpuf
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